Trumpcare

Ktoyou

Well-known member
Hall of Fame
** News Flash ** Trumpcare will pass tomorrow

If it passes, there will be money to be made in the market. If it does not pass, then investors will panic and all the gains since the election will disappear.

The reason, failure to pass will mean less chance of lower taxes needed, thus lowering the corporate tax rate will be compromised. The market moves fast and on speculation. The lower taxes are already priced in. If it look like no lower corporate taxes this year, then there will be a panic in the market.
 

Ktoyou

Well-known member
Hall of Fame
It appears futures are hanging poised to go either way. This vote on amending ACA is going to make or break it, If it passes, then the market will rise, yet my belief is not so certain.

One problem is, the bill does not change much of the original ACA abd this has the most fiscal conservatives wanting for more change. In fact, the major change is under-funding an already costly program. A loss ofa few Republican votes will prevent it from moving forward. There is some chance for more conservative Democrats making up the difference; however, with so much party animosity, little chance there will be enough to make the difference.

I believe Trump should have controlled his temperament better and he should have tried to make the way for cooperate earnings overseas to be brought into the USA at low tax rates, then moved on to lowering the corperate tax.

It is understandable why he is trying to see the ACA changes made first, yet sometimes even well informed politicians fail to see the future financial shortcomings of tax reform, while they well see the implications of any social program changes.

What this all comes down to is more persons are comfortable with words and ideas than they are with numbers and finical outcomes.
 

Ktoyou

Well-known member
Hall of Fame
Market Analysts Outlook VS Mine

Market Analysts Outlook VS Mine

"Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at MKM Partners, said he is looking at the 50-day moving average for the S&P 500 at 2,326, which would represent another 1% drop for the broad-market benchmark, which finished Tuesday trade at 2,344. Technical analysts often look at so-called moving averages to help determine if a recent trend, bullish or bearish, is intact."

Katie Stockton, chief technical analyst at BTIG, is looking for support for the broad-market S&P 500 at 2,280 based on a so-called Fibonacci retracement. Fibonacci retracements, named after the 12th century Italian mathematician, are based on the ratio of 0.618, also known as the “divine proportion.” The proportion, which has been found to exist in nature for technical wonks, is viewed as signifying the natural movement of Wall Street assets for chartists.

Still, Stockton views the overall uptrend for the market as mostly holding together:

“Long-term momentum remains positive, and within that context we think a bullish bias is appropriate, noting also the pullback follows abundant breakouts,” she told MarketWatch. “As long as the pullback does not give way to abundant breakdowns, which would mean a significant loss of market breadth, I would assume it’s countertrend,” she said."

Frank Cappelleri, executive director at Instinet LLC, told MarketWatch that “yesterday’s decline was damaging for various reasons, and while one day doesn’t represent a trend, the selloff did push many indices, ETFs and stocks either back to or below some key levels.”

Cappelleri said he is looking for 20,385 in the Dow industrials, which closed on Tuesday at 20,668 and said a fall below 20,000 would be a bearish sign for the blue-chip gauge, given recent focus of the key milestone level."

I opinion is a bit more bearish, the S&P down below 2200, with the Dow falling below 20,000. I perceive a market correction this coming year and lasting until there is tax reform. We may well end the year below current market rates.

Sorry and have a good night.
 

jeffblue101

New member
They just came to an agreement - Fox News

the agreement is on shaky ground.
http://thehill.com/policy/healthcar...-chair-optimistic-about-obamacare-repeal-deal
369


Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) said Wednesday night he and President Trump have come to an “agreement in principle” on a plan to repeal and replace ObamaCare, just one day before a historic House vote on the bill.

“The president and I came to an agreement in principle,” Meadows said during an interview with Fox News’s Sean Hannity, adding that he was still ironing out a few final details with the White House.

The round-the-clock negotiations between the White House, Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and the ultraconservative Freedom Caucus have centered on adding to the bill a repeal of ObamaCare's “essential health benefits,” as well as other insurance regulations in Title I of the existing health law.

But those changes have now alienated some centrist Republicans, who huddled with Ryan and his leadership team for more than two hours Wednesday night to discuss the impact of moving the bill to the right.

After the meeting, one of the leaders of the centrist Tuesday Group, Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Pa.), announced he was opposed to the legislation, warning that the bill would cause too many Americans to lose insurance coverage.

The talks center on conservatives’ request to repeal ObamaCare’s “essential health benefits,” as well as other insurance regulations in Title I of the health law.

A GOP source said the White House has offered to include repeal of the essential health benefits in the bill.

“Our request has been consistent about Title I and essential health benefits and so that's really what we're discussing,” Meadows said earlier in the day as he left a meeting with Freedom Caucus colleagues.
 

jeffblue101

New member
here is a good article that explains the division between republicans. I know it's long but it's a must read.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...t-getting-it/?utm_term=.ff4f2f0aff72#comments
The Republican health-care bill stood in a legislative Catch-22 late Wednesday, held hostage to demands that the White House and Republican leaders wish that they could grant but insist that they cannot.

The captors in this instance are the members of the House Freedom Caucus, the group of roughly three dozen conservative hard-liners who have tried to bend the GOP bill to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act toward the right and have now coalesced around one major demand — that the American Health Care Act, as the GOP bill is titled, must repeal more of the ACA’s insurance mandates to truly lower premiums.

That is not a particularly controversial stance among Republicans. Almost all GOP members — conservatives, moderates and otherwise — would like to undo more off the ACA’s “essential health benefits,” a litany of services that insurance plans are required to cover by law. They include things such as emergency-room visits and hospital stays, but they also include mental health, maternity, preventive care and prescription drug coverage that not all people will necessarily utilize.

Democrats argue that without the requirements, many Americans would be forced to buy bare-bones plans that would leave huge gaps in coverage and expose them to severe financial risk. But most Republicans say that requiring insurers to cover all those benefits is a major factor in driving up premiums — and that if consumers want to buy bare-bones plans, they should be able to buy bare-bones plans.

But the policy debate is not the issue. The Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974 is the issue.

That is the federal law that lays out the procedure congressional Republican leaders are using to pass the American Health Care Act — the “reconciliation” process that will ultimately allow them to pass the bill without Democratic votes. And that law dictates that not just anything can be passed by reconciliation; matters that are “extraneous” to the budgetary nature of the bill are excluded.

House leaders, including Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.), are insisting that any provisions rolling back the ACA’s essential health benefits are indeed extraneous. And not only are they extraneous, Ryan argued Wednesday, but if the House adds them to the bill, the Senate couldn’t just strip them out — it could no longer consider it as a privileged reconciliation bill needing only a simple, Republican majority to pass.

“Look, our whole thing is we don’t want to load up our bill in such a way that it doesn’t even get considered in the Senate,” Ryan told radio host Hugh Hewitt on Wednesday morning. “Then we’ve lost our one chance with this one tool we have, reconciliation. It doesn’t last long. But if the Senate can add things to the bill, then we’re all for that.”

That, according to several Freedom Caucus members and GOP aides, is exactly what Ryan and White House officials — including Vice President Pence — have offered the Freedom Caucus: a commitment that the Senate will seek to add a repeal of the essential health benefits to the House bill once it arrives in that chamber. If at that point the Senate parliamentarian rules that the provision is extraneous, it will simply be dropped and the rest of the bill will remain.

That argument has convinced one conservative hard-liner. Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa), who is not a Freedom Caucus member, said Wednesday that he would support the bill based on “a firm, firm commitment from the majority leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, that he will offer a manager’s amendment to strike out the mandates that are written into Obamacare.”

Freedom Caucus members, however, aren’t taking yes for an answer. Their position, rooted in the wishes of their conservative activist base and years of mounting distrust of GOP leaders, is that the repeal of essential health benefits must be included in the House bill — they are unwilling to take on faith that it will be pursued in the Senate. And they flatly do not accept the argument that it would be procedurally fatal to the legislation.

“They have made clear that is their belief,” Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows (R-N.C.) said Tuesday. “But I have talked to senators who say that not only has it not been adjudicated, but it hasn’t even really been presented in a meaningful way, so that narrative is simply not a narrative based on fact. It’s based on conjecture and belief — which I think it’s a deeply held belief for them, but it’s not based on fact.”

And that is where the dispute stands: The White House and GOP congressional leaders have told the Freedom Caucus that meeting their demands would essentially kill the American Health Care Act before it is born, but the Freedom Caucus, egged on by several conservative Republican senators, refuses to believe that is the case.

The decision on what is permissible in a reconciliation bill — and what House provisions would be fatal — lies in the hands of the Senate parliamentarian, Elizabeth MacDonough. Numerous Freedom Caucus members subscribe to an argument, most prominently advanced by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.), that even if MacDonough were to rule against repealing the insurance mandates, she could be overruled by Pence, who is the president of the Senate.

Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) stoked Freedom Caucus doubts even further in a Wednesday interview with the Washington Examiner in which he cited personal conversations with MacDonough that he said undermined the leadership claims: “What I understood her to be saying is that there’s no reason why an Obamacare repeal bill necessarily could not have provisions repealing the health insurance regulations.”

“What matters is how it’s done, how it’s written up,” he added. “There are ways it’s written up that perhaps make it not subject to passage through reconciliation, but there are other ways you could write it that might make it work.”

Several House and Senate aides said this week that provisions under consideration in the House have been routinely presented to the Senate parliamentarian’s office for review to make sure the legislation passes muster under reconciliation rules, and they said they were confident that including a broader repeal of insurance mandates would render the AHCA ineligible for reconciliation.

Senate leaders, meanwhile, generally dismissed the idea that Pence could unilaterally decide to override the Senate budget rules. While the rules governing the reconciliation process originated as the “Byrd rule,” after former senator Robert C. Byrd (D-W.Va.), they have since 1990 been incorporated into the Budget Act itself — meaning it cannot simply be overturned by changing the Senate rules.

Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), vice chairman of the Senate Republican Conference, said Wednesday that overruling the parliamentarian on a Byrd ruling would virtually guarantee that the GOP health-care law would be challenged in court.
 

jeffblue101

New member
Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), vice chairman of the Senate Republican Conference, said Wednesday that overruling the parliamentarian on a Byrd ruling would virtually guarantee that the GOP health-care law would be challenged in court.

this is misleading, any Executive Action taken by Trump during phase 2 will also be challenged in the courts
 

jeffblue101

New member
trumpcare is now losing moderate republican votes
http://www.redstate.com/prevaila/2017/03/23/gop-centrists-jumping-ship-on-obamacare-repeal-bill/
Centrist defections in the last 24 hours include Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Pa.), the co-chairman of the moderate Tuesday Group, which has roughly 50 members.

Reps. Dan Donovan (R-N.Y.), David Young (R-Iowa), Chris Smith (R-N.J.), Frank LoBiondo (R-N.J.), and Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Wash.), all centrists, have also announced their opposition to the bill.

Reps. Leonard Lance (R-N.J.) and John Katko (R-N.Y.), two other centrists, earlier announced their opposition.

That brings the number of centrist no votes to at least eight, though there could be more.

it looks like the phase approach to repeal is dying
 

1Mind1Spirit

Literal lunatic


Psalms 15:5

“He that putteth not out his money to usury, nor taketh reward against the innocent. He that doeth these things shall never be moved.”


have a good night.

Ecclesiastes 5:12

The sleep of a labouring man is sweet, whether he eat little or much: but the abundance of the rich will not suffer him to sleep.
 

1Mind1Spirit

Literal lunatic
The only thing demoncrats can agree on is desperately seeking impeachment - they will waste all of their time and energy on Fake News

IMHO,

The Republican Congress should use a little of that energy as well.

Every time a liberal constitution chipping judge issues a stay of executive orders they should immediately have impeachment hearings begun on them.

Checks and balances, dontchya know? :guitar:
 

rexlunae

New member
trumpcare is not finished, he needs to stop listening to Paul Ryan and pass a near complete bill rather than phase approach.


even under the worst scenario obamacare wont last for long as it will hit a death spiral.

The Republicans don't know how to legislate. They're used to being the opposition, with President Obama ensuring that they're crazy ideologically-driven nonsense has limited impact. Now they're faced with the ability to actually write real laws, and they can't because reality intervenes, and even the many Republicans realize that kicking tens of millions of people off their coverage is political suicide.

Republicans have become the single greatest threat to the safety of Americans, and it's getting more and more obvious.
 

jgarden

BANNED
Banned
Yes, because the demoncrats can now crash and burn with Obamacare. They deserve it !!! Now we won't get any tax cuts either
Conservative got exactly what they wanted - control of the White House, the Senate and the House and yet they're still blaming the Democrats!

When do conservatives take responsibility for a dilemma of their own making?
 
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