So the following game should be easy to pick since both teams are in the hunt for something important:
Easier, but if it was easy there'd be no line from Vegas. And by next week there will be more wild card, which way are they playing teams. So it gets progressively harder to figure.
My model had Dallas by 6, but the differential here is over 10 and the odds out of the simulators I note away have Dallas covering the 7. I may change my pick on this one...Tampa is a middling defense, not bad against the pass, but weaker against the run. Worse for Tampa fans, their defense isn't great at applying pressure, with only Detroit, Indy, Cleveland and New Orleans having fewer defensive hurries. That should translate into Elliot being more effective and Dak having more time to read through his progression, which has been problematic of late.
On the other side of things, the Bucs are a middling offense, with some real balance between the rushing and passing attack. In this case that might not be such a great thing... Jameis is playing right on the edge of pro-bowl ball, but he needs more weapons. He has a few good rbs but none who have taken that next step and I'm always weary of the committee approach to the position.
Of course, Dallas is lousy at hurries as well, meaing Jameis might do more than a little damage himself. He'll have to, because you don't run against the Boys. That's a lot of pressure on the road.
I think I'm talking myself into a Dallas resurgence here. :think: I'm changing my pick to go with the differential and against my model. Dallas.
Now if I can make the rest of this potentially disastrous week work out as well I'm once again in tall cotton.