Tough, tough week coming up. Lot's of bizarre match ups and injury questions...
Week 15
1. LA @ Sea: Seattle is a 14.5 fav. and the only question is whether the Rams can get that new coach bump to skew a point spread that should be made by a Seahawks team that underperformed last week. Will this be the GB/TB Seattle or the New England/Carolina beating monster? I don't know, but so far losses have led to a big rebound. I'm betting on that and the averages. Seattle.
2. Mia @ Jets: Miami is a 2.5 fav. The Fins are playing solid ball on average. The Jests needed overtime to beat SF and spoil a four loss streak. Someone has to win. Why not Miami?
3. Cle @ Buf: in the battle of Who Cares Hill the Bills are a 9.5 fav. as Vegas tries to manufacture some reason to pay attention. The differential is closer to 18, so it's more likely than not that the Browns will continue their march in unvictorious infamy in style.
4. GB @ Chi: The Packers come to town a 6.5 favorite on the heels of a late season resurrection. Meanwhile, the Bears played a hot Lions close in a 3 pt loss with their back up turned starter. To me this is one where I could see Green Bay struggling on the road, but pulling it out with a 3 to 5 pt edge. I could see them winning by two scores or better too, unfortunately. . . Given the size of the line, Rodgers strained calf and the Bears playing better without Cutler I'm going to go for this one to be closer than the line, meaning I'll take Chicago.
5. Pit @ Cin: The Steelers are a tight 3.5 favorite, meaning the half point is incentive out of Vegas. :think: The differential covers the pts, barely. It's a bare bones line. I'll bite on the half point and look for an 23-18, or 21-17 margin.
6. Det @ Gia: Two solid teams looking for playoff push. The line is for the Giants by a whopping 4.5. That's a lot against Detroit...unless Eli catches fire I like this one by a fg or to go the other way, so I'm in with the visiting team in a close contest.
7. Ten @ KC: The Titans are moving in the right direction, but KC is already there and favored by 5.5 pts. The differential is 5.4 and my model has this one a 4 pt contest, so that's a big ask. What moves it for me is looking at recent history. KC put up pts against that still potent Denver defense that held the Titans to one td and a couple of fgs in last week's win. Or, I'm more comfortable with the thought of KC moving against a decent defense than I am Ten putting up points against that Chief's secondary and pressure. I'll take the Chiefs to cover.
8. Ind @ Min: The Vikings are a 4.5 fav. I'd take the Colts but I'm not even sure Luck is playing at this point. Too many questions to know what to do with this. Bradford is banged up too. I'll play the averages and go with the underdog and a close game. Indy.
9. Phi @ Bal: The Ravens are a 6.5 fav. No reason to doubt them at this point. Philly hasn't been able to put up points against stout defenses. Baltimore has one. I don't see a pt fest here, but I like the Ravens to do enough on defense to cover.
10. Jac @ Hou: Oh, bother...Houston is a 6.5 fav. And it's not that I have any faith in the Jags, but when how often has Houston put up more than a two to three tds? And how often hasn't Jacksonville gotten a couple? I look for Jac to score a couple and Houston to make around twenty. That's not quite enough to go with Houston. Give me the pts here going the other way.
11. SF @ Atl: Only the 13.5 line for Atlanta makes this remotely interesting. Unless they're resting, Atlanta's diff is larger than that. Even with Julio taking a breather I like Atlanta by a couple. Falcons.
12. NO @ Arz: uh-oh....the Cardinals are a marginal fav at 2.5, which is surprising given the diff is closer to 4. Something working there, but I'll take the Cardinals at home.
13. NE @ Den: Brady enters the contest a 3.5 fav. Denver can't afford the loss. The funny thing is, Denver is really playing about as well as they did in their SB year. Last year Denver gave up 18.5 pts a game. This year? 18.6 Last year the offense managed 22.2 pts a game. This year? 22.8 Last year they gave up 283 yds a game/this year it's 310. New England is a little off their offensive pace from last year, but has made up the difference with improved defense.
Everyone said Manning rode that defense to a ring. I'm not so sure his leadership/presence wasn't the difference maker. Because despite the statistics, no one is really afraid of this Broncos team, even with Trevor playing, statistically, much better than the 2015 Peyton and his defense holding solidly.
Anyway, I still think this is a fg contest, so I'm taking the upset line.
14. Oak @ SD: The Raiders are a 2.5 road fav over the Chargers. The differential is actually closer and my model has this thing a haywire either/or game I'd walk away from if I wasn't picking every game. I'll take the Chargers to break hearts in Oakland.
15. TB @ Dal: The Cowboys are a sizable 7.5 fav at home. The question is, should they be? As it sits I like Dallas to win, but I'm not going to go for that many points given the blueprint on hand for frustrating Dak. Now if they rest him and start Romo, rust notwithstanding, I like the Cowboys...but they won't. They'll wait until they put too much on Tony, if then. That's Dallas.
16. Car @ Was: Washington is a 4.5 fav. The diff is Washington by 6 and I like them by a td, so I'm in with Washington sending the Panthers another post SB loss let down game.
I was happy for Cleveland, considering. Wasn't a fan of the Magic when he went there, but going home and giving that city a winner was a feel good story that was hard to root against. Now? :idunno: The NBA needs a dynasty or a villain or a transcendent player with charisma to match. GS might have the makings of a dynasty, but we're a couple of crowns and challenges to see. Can Cleveland defend? Will another team surprise?
