NFL 2016

[Daniel1769]

The Dallas Cowboys have officially peaked. Short them at market. They had a fine season.

I agree. I think they lose their first playoff game. Although, on the other hand, I read an article that said the Steelers and Cowboys would be the biggest money-maker possible for the NFL this year, so I won't be surprised to see some bad officiating to nudge it that way. I love football, so I hate to say it, but I don't think all of the horrid officiating is an accident. I think it's on purpose to nudge the games a certain way. Too many coincidences and too much money involved to be 100% clean

 

[Town Heretic]

With 2 weeks to go, I'm predicting:

Giants win NFC Championship
Giants: 24
Packers: 20

Steelers win AFC Championship
Steelers: 27
Raiders: 17

Steeler win Superbowl
Steelers: 27
Giants: 20

Using the players as given by CBS, if the playoffs happened now (and no one improved through the cycle):

AFC
Oak: 21
NE: 30

NFC:
Atl or Sea @ Dal (I had Atlanta @ Sea in a dead heat)

Scenario 1
Sea: 16
Dal 19

Scenario 2
Atl: 26
Dal: 24

Super Bowl:

Scenario 1
NE: 23
Dal: 18

Scenario 2:
NE: 32
Atl: 31

But that's for fun. The groupings are too tight and at least half of the teams that look likely to make the playoffs could beat anyone on a given Sunday are within a fg of one another, or close to it. I mentioned this before, but taking a rating composite where 30 and up are teams with a near lock on the title game and SB, mid twenties teams are solid spoilers, no one is playing at 30 or up.

 

[Daniel1769]

Using the players as given by CBS, if the playoffs happened now (and no one improved through the cycle):

AFC
Oak: 21
NE: 30

NFC:
Atl or Sea @ Dal (I had Atlanta @ Sea in a dead heat)

Scenario 1
Sea: 16
Dal 19

Scenario 2
Atl: 26
Dal: 24

Super Bowl:

Scenario 1
NE: 23
Dal: 18

Scenario 2:
NE: 32
Atl: 31

But that's for fun. The groupings are too tight and at least half of the teams that look likely to make the playoffs could beat anyone on a given Sunday are within a fg of one another, or close to it. I mentioned this before, but taking a rating composite where 30 and up are teams with a near lock on the title game and SB, mid twenties teams are solid spoilers, no one is playing at 30 or up.

This is the most unpredictable season I've ever seen, I think. A lot of upsets, a lot of good teams screwing up, a lot of bad teams squeaking out wins, lots of injuries throwing things into chaos...it's been a strange season.

 

[Town Heretic]

This is the most unpredictable season I've ever seen, I think. A lot of upsets, a lot of good teams screwing up, a lot of bad teams squeaking out wins, lots of injuries throwing things into chaos...it's been a strange season.

Agreed. I didn't feel at all bad about going 9-6 against the line this week, and I lost three or four games in the fourth quarter. KC's bizarre ineptitude in the second half, the Ravens falling apart against Philly, Dallas fading a bit. Just a strange week in a strange year.

By this time I've usually got two or three teams in Super Bowl form and the question is which of two or three other teams will get hot and challenge. At present, there's simply no team that's dominant. If NE had Gronk I might feel differently. Without him they're at the top of the heap, but vulnerable. It's a headache as a prognosticator, but as a fan I'm enjoying the heck out of it.

 

[Daniel1769]

Agreed. I didn't feel at all bad about going 9-6 against the line this week, and I lost three or four games in the fourth quarter. KC's bizarre ineptitude in the second half, the Ravens falling apart against Philly, Dallas fading a bit. Just a strange week in a strange year.

By this time I've usually got two or three teams in Super Bowl form and the question is which of two or three other teams will get hot and challenge. At present, there's simply no team that's dominant. If NE had Gronk I might feel differently. Without him they're at the top of the heap, but vulnerable. It's a headache as a prognosticator, but as a fan I'm enjoying the heck out of it.

Do you play fantasy football? This has been really bizarre for fantasy.

 

[Town Heretic]

Do you play fantasy football? This has been really bizarre for fantasy.

I'd imagine, but no, I never have. No idea how any of that works. I love football and statistics and I get satisfaction out of competing with people in predicting against the line on ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em, which I've participated in for years. I had a complicated model that was better than what I do now, and placed 15th one year using it, but it was too time consuming to put together and maintain when Jack came along. Now it's a combination of a lesser predictor coupled with an eyeball test. I'm doing well enough to keep me at it.

 

[Jerry Shugart]

The Dallas Cowboys have officially peaked. Short them at market. They had a fine season.

That what you said last week but they won!

If they win just one of the next two they will have home field advantage throughout the playoffs and they will have a bye during the first week.

Not a small thing for a team that peaked last week.

 

[Daniel1769]

I'd imagine, but no, I never have. No idea how any of that works. I love football and statistics and I get satisfaction out of competing with people in predicting against the line on ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em, which I've participated in for years. I had a complicated model that was better than what I do now, and placed 15th one year using it, but it was too time consuming to put together and maintain when Jack came along. Now it's a combination of a lesser predictor coupled with an eyeball test. I'm doing well enough to keep me at it.

Sounds cool. You would probably enjoy fantasy football in a 10 or more person league. Rules vary depending on how they're set up. Basically, at the beginning you hold a draft with everyone in the league and draft your team. You can have X numbers of players on your team, and out of your team, each week you need to "start" a QB, 2 receivers, 2 running backs, a tight end, a kicker, a defense and "flex" which can be your choice of a receiver, running back or tight end. Every week you play against someone else in your league. You choose who to start and who to bench based on how you believe they will perform for that week. Players can be traded and free agents added throughout the year, while other players would need to be dropped in order to stay within allowable number players on the roster.

Each player is awarded points based on their individual performance. X points for every 10 passing yards, X points for every 10 receiving yards, X yards for every 10 rushing yards, X points per TD, etc. Subtracting points for turnovers and lost yardage. By the end of the game, the person with the most points wins.

The number of players allowed per roster, the scoring system and other features can be changed by the league "commissioner" who would be one of the people in your league. It has a lot to do with guessing statistics, although an individual player can do well in fantasy football even if their real life team loses. E.g. Blake Bortles is a top scoring QB in fantasy. It's very fun when you get into it, and quite addicting.

 

[tetelestai]

That what you said last week but they won!

If they win just one of the next two they will have home field advantage throughout the playoffs and they will have a bye during the first week.

Not a small thing for a team that peaked last week.

The last time the Cowboys had home field advantage throughout the playoffs, and a first round bye.....they lost to the Giants......in their first game.

How do you expect a team that has won only TWO playoff games since 1996, to somehow win two in the same season?

 

[tetelestai]

As of today:

Top 10 most wins (including playoffs) since the year 2000:

221 - Patriots (22 playoff wins)
188 - Colts (12 playoff wins)
186 - Steelers (13 playoff wins)
179 - Packers (11 playoff wins)
172 - Ravens (15 playoff wins)
168 - Broncos (7 playoff wins)
167 - Eagles (10 playoff wins)
164 - Seahawks (13 playoff wins)
155 - Giants (10 playoff wins)
152 - Saints (7 playoff wins)

As we see above, the Dallas Cowboys with 129 (2 playoff wins) don't even come close to making the Top 10

Also, 5 of the top 6 teams are from the AFC, and have 10 Super Bowl wins amongst them.

And, in dead last, are the Cleveland Browns with 85 (0 playoff wins)...... Which is pretty sad considering the Houston Texans are ahead of them by 21 wins, even though they weren't founded until 2002.

 

[Jerry Shugart]

As we see above, the Dallas Cowboys with 129 (2 playoff wins) don't even come close to making the Top 10

Of course you forgot to mention that no one has won more playoff games overall than the Cowboys!

Pittsburgh is not even close to being in the top ten in overall winning percentage while Dallas is number two. And Pittsburgh had a span of 38 years without winning even one playoff game!

As I said, when I first started watching pro football the Steelers were the laughingstock of the NFL and had been for several decades!

 

[Nihilo]

As of today:

Top 10 most wins (including playoffs) since the year 2000:

221 - Patriots (22 playoff wins)
188 - Colts (12 playoff wins)
186 - Steelers (13 playoff wins)
179 - Packers (11 playoff wins)
172 - Ravens (15 playoff wins)
168 - Broncos (7 playoff wins)
167 - Eagles (10 playoff wins)
164 - Seahawks (13 playoff wins)
155 - Giants (10 playoff wins)
152 - Saints (7 playoff wins)

It surprised me how much higher the Pats' win total was until I made a chart, and it's not as significant as it appears tabulated. The drop from Seattle to NYG is about the same proportional magnitude as from NE to Indy.

Like when we have a game like Sunday's; we always say "a win's a win."

It surprises me to see Philly in there at all but especially to see them higher than both Seattle and NYG.

It's also important to remember that a SB win is the NFL champion for that whole season, so it's equivalent to, when mentioning SBs, instead mentioning NFL season championships. Denver won the 2015 NFL season, not only last year's SB.

 

[john w]

That what you said last week but they won!

If they win just one of the next two they will have home field advantage throughout the playoffs and they will have a bye during the first week.

Not a small thing for a team that peaked last week.

It was just a "remittance," i.e., a temporary stay of execution. They will fold, wilt, faster than a cheap suit in a typical July Dallas summer.

If? If I was good looking....

They had a fine season. Look forward to April.....The Boys are done this season.

 

[Town Heretic]

A horrible week for me ended with another loss and my having to settle for a 9 - 7 week against the line...which isn't bad, considering, but still...

This week could be even more odd given how the playoffs are shaking out. I'm going to take more chances and set out more of the why in my next.

Let's go ahead and get the Thursday night game out of the way. It's a hard one.

1. Gia @ Phi: New York is a 2.5 favorite. I have it a dead heat. The differential favors Philly by 1.5....but the Giants have been hot of late, winning 4 of their last 5, while Philly keeps getting a close but not quite, at 0-5. The Giant's have a good offensive line, which should negate Philly's attempts at bringing pressure and give Eli time to deliver, but the Eagles are ball hawks and the Giants won't be running the ball effectively, upping the chance of a feast or famine day for the G-men. Will the problematic run game for the Giants force more turnovers and hand the game to Philly? Or will Eli do enough on offense and his defense force the same problem for the Eagles.

Normally I'll take the team getting not getting points when I have it even, but there's a reason the Giants have won lately and the Eagles haven't...and a fg feels like the likely outcome here. I'll take the Giants on a hunch.

 

[Jerry Shugart]

They will fold, wilt, faster than a cheap suit in a typical July Dallas summer.

When I lived in Dallas my cheap suits never wilted during summer!

 

[Jerry Shugart]

1. Gia @ Phi: New York is a 2.5 favorite. I have it a dead heat. The differential favors Philly by 1.5....but the Giants have been hot of late, winning 4 of their last 5, while Philly keeps getting a close but not quite, at 0-5.

The G-men have been lucky, like when the Cowboy's field goal attempt hit the goal post and bounced back. Their luck will run out this week and they will suffer a loss by three points and Dallas will win the trifecta--the Division title, a first round bye, and home field advantage throughout the playoffs!

 

[tetelestai]

This week could be even more odd given how the playoffs are shaking out.

Let me give you some "inside" info regarding my Steelers when it comes to December:

Under Tomlin, the Steelers are 31-13 in the month of December, they are 11-1 the past three seasons in December, including 3-0 so far this December.

Conversely, too bad Tony Romo isn't the QB for the Cowboys, it would be really easy to predict the game....Romo is 11-15 during his career in December.

The Cowboys are 7-10 after Thanksgiving the past three years (including 2-1 this year)

 

[john w]

When I lived in Dallas my cheap suits never wilted during summer!

Try this:the Cowboys will fold faster than those who draw against either Quick Draw McGraw, or the great, humble, and most feared hombres of TOL, John W, AKA, "The Rifleman."

 

[john w]

Let me give you some "inside" info regarding my Steelers when it comes to December:

Your Steelers, you quip, Craigie? That's pretty pathetic-you needing to tie your identity, your worth, to a sports team? Don't flatter yourself-you know no Steelers, and they don't know you.

Pathetic.

 

[tetelestai]

Speaking of Tomlin.

Mike Tomlin became just the 8th coach to win 100 games in his first 10 seasons earlier this month.

The other 7:

Shula
Madden
Gibbs
Ditka
Seifert
Dungy
McCarthy

****Shula and Madden deserve more credit, they did it in 14 game seasons.