NFL 2016

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Nihilo

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The biggest poker players/professionals more often than the general population bets on sports, and they universally lose money doing that, but more than make up for it in their poker earnings.

The biggest poker games are not all these professionals playing each other for high stakes, but one or a few of them playing against one or more whales for medium-to-high stakes, which are wealthy-to-super-wealthy fish who enjoy the thrill of playing the biggest stakes poker against the best poker players/professionals in the world---and who can afford it!

Whenever the pros butt heads it's always intense poker but they're essentially equal and it's about who plays better when their opponent has the nuts. Who controls their losing the best is the one who wins the most. Everybody plays their winners like the sharks they are. It takes patience and discipline to play your losers well. You're not always sure it's a loser. If you fold early you'll be negative overall, so you have to stick with medium and medium-strong hands as long as possible in order to not lose pots to weaker bluffers/professionals with weaker hands than you. And if your senses are telling you that your very strong hand is beat, then you have to learn to connect that sensation with a reasonable explanation as to what's actually going on. It's not always the case, but it is sometimes, that your very strong hand is beaten already, with no drawouts possible to improve on the river, no matter what happens till the river.

The edge in sports betting is with those who make book. The edge in poker is poker skill, but there's a threshold above which it's going to come down to catching cards, and not skill, so the extra-poker skill is choosing situations that give poker skill the edge. Those who have mastered both poker and choosing the right situations to target are the best poker players/professionals in the world.

And they lose money betting sports.
 
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john w

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No, you peaked as a prognosticator several years ago. For you it is all over but the crying.
The fat lady is warming up, off stage. Watch my prognostication, once again, be fulfilled, as the great saint John W's fame gets even more legendary...Watch...
 

Jerry Shugart

Well-known member
The fat lady is warming up, off stage. Watch my prognostication, once again, be fulfilled, as the great saint John W's fame gets even more legendary...Watch...

In that case I am sure that you will want to prove how good you are in your prognostication so tell us which way you will go in tonight's game:

At Philadelphia -1
NY Giants

It's time for you to put your money where your mouth is!
 

john w

New member
Hall of Fame
In that case I am sure that you will want to prove how good you are in your prognostication so tell us which way you will go in tonight's game:

At Philadelphia -1
NY Giants

It's time for you to put your money where your mouth is!

Philadelphia will win this game-I guarantee it.

John "Willy Joe Namath" W


Question: What does 5 hours mean, in the context of this thread?

The time until my greatness is once again displayed, in humility, as the game ends, with an Eagle victory.
 

Daniel1769

New member
Man, I was way off on my prediction. Right now, it's 8 minutes left in the third with the Eagles up 21 to 16. I still have the Giants for the win.
 

Jerry Shugart

Well-known member
Philadelphia will win this game-I guarantee it.

Of course you picked the Eagles to win after reading what I said earlier about the game:

"The G-men have been lucky, like when the Cowboy's field goal attempt hit the goal post and bounced back. Their luck will run out this week and they will suffer a loss by three points and Dallas will win the trifecta--the Division title, a first round bye, and home field advantage throughout the playoffs!"

You always wait until I make my predictions and then you jump on the bandwagon!
 

Town Heretic

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Of course you picked the Eagles to win after reading what I said earlier about the game:
"The G-men have been lucky, like when the Cowboy's field goal attempt hit the goal post and bounced back. Their luck will run out this week and they will suffer a loss by three points and Dallas will win the trifecta--the Division title, a first round bye, and home field advantage throughout the playoffs!"

You always wait until I make my predictions and then you jump on the bandwagon!
Well, you and John were both right. I hated this game going in. My model couldn't pick between them. The Differential said Philly and 1.5. Impossible to know what that game would be. :mmph: on the plus side, my best weeks have come off opening loses. :eek:
 

Jerry Shugart

Well-known member
Well, you and John were both right. I hated this game going in. My model couldn't pick between them. The Differential said Philly and 1.5. Impossible to know what that game would be. :mmph: on the plus side, my best weeks have come off opening loses. :eek:

Frankly, I was amazed when the Eagles ended up as the favorite, especially when considering their won-lost records as well as the way they had both been playing lately.
 

Town Heretic

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Frankly, I was amazed when the Eagles ended up as the favorite, especially when considering their won-lost records as well as the way they had both been playing lately.
It was a statistical coin flip. On paper the Eagles had a slight edge because they have more offensive balance, but then there's the Eli factor and I keep waiting on him to snap to, and the importance of the game to the Giants, coupled with that defense...all summed I thought they'd do just enough.

Another statistical dead heat is coming up with the Fins at Buffalo. Other pick your poison matchups: Ten @ Jac, Was @ Chi, Atl @ Car, and Cin @ Hou.
 

john w

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Hall of Fame
Of course you picked the Eagles to win after reading what I said earlier about the game:

"The G-men have been lucky, like when the Cowboy's field goal attempt hit the goal post and bounced back. Their luck will run out this week and they will suffer a loss by three points and Dallas will win the trifecta--the Division title, a first round bye, and home field advantage throughout the playoffs!"

You always wait until I make my predictions and then you jump on the bandwagon!
Trying to save face, eh?

Vs.

In that case I am sure that you will want to prove how good you are in your prognostication so tell us which way you will go in tonight's game:

At Philadelphia -1
NY Giants

Philadelphia will win this game-I guarantee it.

John "Willy Joe Namath" W


Question: What does 5 hours mean, in the context of this thread?

The time until my greatness is once again displayed, in humility, as the game ends, with an Eagle victory.


My extreme greatness/humility is again on display...My late response? Taking all that money out of my mouth. Hmmpphhh..........
 

Jerry Shugart

Well-known member
My extreme greatness/humility is again on display...My late response? Taking all that money out of my mouth. Hmmpphhh..........

Since you are so great at picking games then do us all a favor and tell us which way we should bet here:

At Dallas -7
Detroit

Thanks!
 

john w

New member
Hall of Fame
I already did and I took Dallas and gave the seven points!

Consider my savvy, expert, brilliant advice, thus far, a Christmas gift. But, going forward, I charge $200 a day, plus expenses.

The great, humble, awe inspiring, saint John "Rockford" W...
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
Dad blasted, forget the games are on today. Let the rebound begin! :D Looking over...

Got Atlanta! 1-1

About to get the Fins breaking the PS. 2-1

Thanks Washington. 3-1

Up yours, SD. :mmph: 3-2

Go Packers rebound! 4-2

Jags close! :D 5-2

Thanks NE. 6-2

A good start. What's left:

I need Indy to keep it closer than 3.5 or to win. ...turds. :mmph: 6-3

The Rams to take care of SF...boo Rams. Had it and lost composure. :mmph: 6-4

New Orleans to win. Huzzah! 7-3

Arizona to keep it closer than 8.5. ...better than I expected. :thumb: 8-3

Cin to win. ...they didn't but they still managed to beat the spread, so good on me. 9-3

And the Steelers to cover.

Then I'm gambling that Denver will upset the pt spread or win outright against KC.

And Dallas needs to cover to close out the week.
 
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Jerry Shugart

Well-known member
OK Sports Fans:

At Pittsburgh -6
Baltimore

I am going with the Steelers minus six. Baltimore doesn't have
the offense to keep up with Pittsburgh!
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
OK Sports Fans:

At Pittsburgh -6
Baltimore

I am going with the Steelers minus six. Baltimore doesn't have
the offense to keep up with Pittsburgh!
I'm with you on that, nervously. I have a lot of 1 pt wins running the model, but a not unsizable number at six. So I'm going to take a chance.

EDIT: it's looking more and more like I made a mistake going against the numbers. This week that may be the difference between a 9 win or an 11 win week.

Indy's fold and the Ram's choke put me at 6-4, but the Saints, surprisingly strong Cardinals, and hapless Bengals (who lost and still managed to skew a 2.5 pt spread) put me back up to 9-4 with a shot at ten or better, again.

I'm a little worried about that 7.5 for Dallas given they don't have anything to gain particularly. I may flip on it. Not sure. I'm calling Pittsburgh to cover, of course, and Denver to kill the spread with KC.

Should still be a good week, but if I hadn't played with the system and had gone by my most probable I'd be 10-3 and looking for more. :mmph:

Now next week we'll have rests and two teams without their starting qbs...man. :smack:
 
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