NFL 2015

[brewmama]

It's bizarre that Alabama has been the best program in college football, but hasn't had a QB win an NFL game in almost 30 years.

However, I'm old enough to remember Bart Starr, Joe Namath, and Ken Stabler win plenty of NFL games.

Ah, the good old days!

 

[Town Heretic]

It's bizarre that Alabama has been the best program in college football, but hasn't had a QB win an NFL game in almost 30 years.

We had smart game managers, mostly, like Barker.

However, I'm old enough to remember Bart Starr, Joe Namath, and Ken Stabler win plenty of NFL games.

Maybe we'll nab one now, given we've produced a few wrs of note. If I was a young gun I'd love to play with a team that produced in every other aspect of the game and knew how to win. Coker was highly valued coming out of HS, but never translated that...maybe he'll use this as a launching pad for a chance. He has a live enough arm.

 

[tetelestai]

given we've produced a few wrs of note.

I sure hope Derrick Henry has a better NFL career than Trent Richardson did.

***As long as the Browns don't select him, he should do ok.

 

[Town Heretic]

I sure hope Derrick Henry has a better NFL career than Trent Richardson did.

***As long as the Browns don't select him, he should do ok.

Trent had a between the ears problem. He was a beast for us. I don't think Henry will have a problem, though if he does he'd join a list of Heisman winners who didn't delight on the next level.

 

[Nick M]

I sure hope Derrick Henry has a better NFL career than Trent Richardson did.

***As long as the Browns don't select him, he should do ok.

Did you catch Colin Cowherd today? It wasn't about the Browns.

You can return any broken merchandise

 

[patrick jane]

Did you catch Colin Cowherd today? It wasn't about the Browns.

You can return any broken merchandise

:rotfl: Rollback Tide

 

[Town Heretic]

:chuckle: We'll weep into our trophies, like Spurs fans.

 

[tetelestai]

Did you catch Colin Cowherd today?

I just watched the video. He's right, they're boring. They kind of remind me of Penn State back in the 80's. Penn State was very boring, and didn't produce very many NFL QB's despite winning a couple National Championships.

In fact, Penn State was so boring back then, Paterno wouldn't allow the names of the players on jerseys, there was no logo on the helmets, and nowhere on the uniforms did it say "Penn State".

As for Alabama, I don't how they do it, but whatever they're doing, it's working.

 

[tetelestai]

Where's Granite?

I want to hear him whine about how LeGarrette Blount being out for the rest of the season is going to hurt the Patriots.

Because us non-Patriot fans just love hearing Patriot's fans complain about injuries to Patriots. :chuckle:

 

[Town Heretic]

I just watched the video. He's right, they're boring.

I don't think so, but I like defense and a running game. I appreciate qb play and we've had a little of that lately, but we're not going to approximate Golden State. We're the Spurs of college football.

As for Alabama, I don't how they do it, but whatever they're doing, it's working.

Team play and fundamentals. Get the right sort of players and you win like crazy with it. Ask Duncan.

 

[Nick M]

As for Alabama, I don't how they do it, but whatever they're doing, it's working.

Uh, the Steel Curtain is how they do it. The answer to how to beat them is have horses upfront yourself.

The BCS itself was a setup. It started with objective data, then the formula was changed to make it more like competitive figure skating with opinions. The game is simple. Rank the SEC high to start. Then they score points by beating ranked teams like Arkansas and Ole Miss. The 4 team playoff is the BCS plus one. 4 teams arbitrarily selected. Then line them up against one trick ponies like LSU or Notre Dame.

 

[tetelestai]

Uh, the Steel Curtain is how they do it. The answer to how to beat them is have horses upfront yourself.

The Steel Curtain used a 4-3 defense.

Saban likes the 4-3, but Alabama uses the 3-4. However, some argue that Alabama's 3-4 is really a 4-3.

Saban used a 4-3 when he was DC at Cleveland, when he was HC at LSU, and most of the time when he was HC at Miami. I don't remember what he used at Michigan State.

In 2001 the Steelers were the only NFL team to use the 3-4. Now about half the teams use it, but some are going back to the 4-3 like Rex Ryan did this year with Buffalo.

 

[Nick M]

The Steel Curtain used a 4-3 defense.

The Steel Curtain used Mean Joe Greene. Speaking of which, will the Steelers try to move up in the draft? The Big 10 has several defensive linemen that will go early.

 

[tetelestai]

will the Steelers try to move up in the draft?

The Steelers are fine up front and at linebacker.

They are in desperate need of corners and safeties.

 

[Nick M]

They are in desperate need of corners and safeties.

Same as last year. There is always room for players like Shilique Calhoun.

The top corners are mostly from the south. Not that means they can't play in the cold, but they are unproven for late November and December. The Florida DB Vernon Hargreaves can do everything including tackle. I know it was hard to watch Florida football this year, but he does it all. And he will go high. I am not sure I trade multiple picks to go high for a corner. Jalen Ramsey of FSU is just as good.

April is a ways off anyway.

 

[Town Heretic]

Review time for Week 15

Well, I went 10-6 reaching on a few. I can live with it.

Model scores/actual scores for week 15

TB @ SL: 19-23/23-31
Jet@DAL: 20-17/19-16
Atl@Jac: 23-29/23-17
Buf@Was: 25-21/25-35
Chi@Min: 19-24/17-38
Ten@NE: 16-34/16-33
Hou@Ind:21-19/16-10
KC@Bal: 24-14/34-14
Car@Gia: 31-21/38-35
Cle@Sea: 9-34/13-30
GB@Oak: 26-22/30-20
Cin@SF: 24-11/24-14
Den@Pit: 17-25/27-35
Mia@SD: 19-20/14-30
Arz@Phi: 30-23/40-17
Det@NO: 29-27/35-27

So, not bad either way. Next: power rankings.

 

[tetelestai]

The top corners are mostly from the south.

Maybe, but the best corners are from Pittsburgh. :chuckle:

Pitt has a freshman named Jordan Whitehead. He will be the #1 corner taken in the NFL draft when he decides to go pro.

Whitehead grew up where Ty Law and Derrelle Revis grew up, and is related to Revis on his mother's side.

Whitehead was the #1 recruit out of Pennsylvania, and was rated the #6 corner in the country by Rivals.com

Whitehead had a really good freshman year at Pitt, and was voted ACC defensive rookie of the year, and many freshman All-American teams.

Also from Pittsburgh is Lamont Wade. Wade is rated the #1 corner in the country for the class of 2017, and the #1 overall player in the country for 2017 by rivals.com

Wade has narrowed down where he's going to play to five schools: Ohio State, Penn State, Tennessee, West Virginia, and Pitt.

 

[tetelestai]

and the Steelers defense 23rd.

Which is why I don't have high hopes for the Steelers going very far in the postseason.

Yes their offense can look scary at times, but if Ben has a bad day the defense won't be able to pick up the slack.

Don't be surprised if Denver wins.

 

[Town Heretic]

Which is why I don't have high hopes for the Steelers going very far in the postseason.

Yes their offense can look scary at times, but if Ben has a bad day the defense won't be able to pick up the slack.

Don't be surprised if Denver wins.

It's worrying at me. The kid isn't that good or consistent yet and the running game hasn't been either. The question is how the Broncos defense plays against you. That's the decider. You have enough to keep Denver mostly off the boards.

 

[Quetzal]

1. TB @ SL: the Jekyl/Hyde bowl of who shows up. SL is a 2.5 favorite with the money about evenly split on the line.

By averages it's a wash. Tampa's last road game was a 25-12 loss to Indy and they were anemic against a less than stellar Saints defense. SL had been on a long scoring drought before putting 24 on a decent Lions team last week. Unless Winston has one of those days it should be a makeable line. I'll take SL, though my model has them by 2 as the most likely score.

I cannot even come close to getting excited about this game. Tampa could not toppled the crippled Colts, what makes them think they can do it on the road against the Rams?

2. Jet @ Dal: the Jets are a 3 point favorite and the split is 70/30 in favor. The averages favor New York and 5... I think that's right where the line and the money should go. I'll take the Jets over the stumbling Cowboys.

The Jets do the merciful thing and deliver the coup de grace to McFadden and company. Jets.

3. Buf @ Was: it's a pick'em with the money split evenly. Washington is just one of those teams you can't figure, week to week. Buf hasn't played to its potential much this year...the averages say the Bills and 2...I'm going with Buffalo, but I'm nervous and may revisit this one.

Does Cousins show up? That is the question when they roll into Fedex Field this week. This game sucks for picks because neither team has shown any incentive to win. Give them both loses! Fine, if I had to choose, I will take the home team, Redskins.

4. Atl @ Jac: the Jags are a 3 pt home fav with the split at 58/42 iun favor of the make...by averages its a wash. Jacksonville has demonstrated the ability to put up points, especially at home and Atlanta can't find its offense. I think they do here, but it won't be enough and I'm taking the Jags to continue the Falcon spiral.

The crazy thing is the Falcons are still in it! Actually, so are the Jaguars (have I mentioned how much I hate this season?) Bortles and the boys are scoring points, even if they don't get the W. Despite all the firepower in the world, the Falcons can't seem to pull it together. I take the Jaguars, too.

5. Chi @ Min: the Vikings are a 5.5 fav with a 60/40 split saying yes. By average? It's a three point Min edge, with six at the outside, but the Bears haven't played well on the road so far. The half point is outside my comfort zone. I'm taking Chicago to rebound and keep this closer.

The Vikings can't score the points they need, putting up a pathetic 27 points in their last two games. I look for Cutler to come back and make a statement. Da Bears.

6. Ten @ NE: the only mystery in this is the line, where the Pats are favored by a "keep your money in your pocket" 15.5, with an astounding 60% of the split backing the line...by average it's a 16 pt New England win.

Ten will put the 29th ranked offense against the 6th ranked Pat defense, so it's going to be hard for them to put up points. But the Titans also field the 13th best defense in the NFL and the Pats have won by the needed margin 4 out of 13 games...those totals coming earlier against the Jags, Dal, Miami and Washington. I'll bet against the line and take the Titans.

The line is what?! :shocked: Holy smokes. The Patriot offense has be nervous. Edelman is practicing, but will probably be a game time decision. Amendola is still fragile and one bad hit will put him back on the bench. Gronk is tough and seems to be the only sure thing for now. But, you know what... I will take the Patriots at home. Amendola plays and shoots the lights out after Brady loses faith in his running backs. (Looking at you, Montee Ball.)

7. Hou @ Ind: the line is Indy and 1.5, but 70% of the money is going the other way. Too much up in the air about this game at the qb position. I'll take Indy at home.

This game sucks. I will take the Colts because someone has to win (unfortunately).

8. KC @ Bal: the Chiefs are a 7.5 fav with a favorable 62/38 split. The averages has it closer to 12. Last week's stumble looks like an anomaly and I'm taking the dangerous line. KC continues to build kmo's hopes in its bit for a devastating playoff letdown...I mean opportunity

The poor, poor Ravens. What has happened here? Well, I really don't care enough to find out. Despite a line that makes me pause for a moment... 500 on red- I mean, the Chiefs!

9. Car@ Gia: a real test for both teams and an indicator of who is what and likely going where. The line is a modestly confident Carolina by 5.5 with a less resounding yea split of 58/42. It's still about who they've played when it comes to the Panthers, or they'd be in the 14 range with this one.

The averages have it at around 12, so by that metric Carolina should cruise. I can see the Giants surprising in this game, but mostly they don't, running numbers. Can't shake the feeling that this could be closer, but I'm taking Carolina.

With the line so small, I have no problem taking Cam and the gang. This should be an easy one, which makes me wonder if they will hide their talent for fear of injury. That is the only thing the Giants can hope for. Panthers.

10. Cle @ Sea: Seattle is a 16 pt fav, with about an even split over the line. It's a hair outside of the averages. That said, over the last five games Seattle hasn't scored fewer than 29 pts and Cleveland has only knocked this margin two out of three, against weaker teams. I'll take the surging Hawks over the chance of a Manziel miracle.

What do the Browns really have to loose? Manziel played well last week, but this against Seattle... in Seattle. I look for him to fold like a house of cards. Seahawks.

11. GB @ Oak: the Pack are a modest, fg favorite and the split is 68/32 in favor. The averages have GB closer to 7 ahead. Should be a fun game to watch, but I'm not ready to bet against the Pack or for Oakland at this point.

I look for Rodgers to continue his bounce back after avenging his loss against Detroit and then steamrolling the poor Cowboys. Packers! (Plus I really need Rodgers to put some good numbers in fantasy this week...)

12. Cin @ SF: the Bengals are a nervous 4.5 favorite with the split falling 65/35 that the sum will overcome any jitters in the most important part. I've seen AJ play in big games and I know his arm. But he's been on the bench, not in the fray...the averages have it at closer to 18, but those were compiled with a different configuration.

Come on, AJ. Bama needs a better post-college career example. :chuckle:

What is going on here? I cannot find Joe Montanna anywhere in these fantasy line ups... Rumor has it Jerry Rice may also come out of retirement... Bengals.

13. Den @ Pit: the Steelers are a 7 pt fav with a less than resounding 53/47 supporting. Why? By averages it's a two-point contest. Five at the outside. The number two offense is going up against the best defense in the league while the Broncos offense is 24th rated and the Steelers defense 23rd. Could be a whale of a game. At Denver I'd like it closer, but the Steelers have shown me more lately and its in their backyard with their backs to the wall. Steelers.

Steelers have a lot to play for but the Denver defense will be a challenge for them. With that said, Ben plays well in big games and this is the one he needs the most. Steelers.

14. Mia @ SD: I almost couldn't care enough to type this one. Miami has fallen back to that middling ground I noted they manage every year since Marino was shown the door...okay, SD is a +1 and the money is evenly split. Miami is a 1 pt favorite by averages.

The Dolphins have put up points on the road, which is more than SD has managed at home. I'll take the Fins without much conviction.

I will take the Chargers because we need more of a contest here...

15. Arz @ Phi: the Cardinals are a 3.5 fav and the split is 68/32 in favor. Arizona is nearly a two td favorite by average. Okay, a td and two fgs, but it's a big average. So why isn't the money moving harder? Because the once league best offense has averaged 23 pts over the last three games while Philly has come on in the last two, playing the Pats tight in New England and beating a favored Buffalo, that's why.

I'll stick with the Cardinals to buy the half point that makes me nervous on the road.

With that line, how can you even hesitate with the Cards? Philly is a fluke, a fluke I tell ya! Cardinals.

16. Det @ NO: the Saints are a 3 pt fav and the split is 65/35 NO. It's hard to win in the Big Easy, where the crowd is nearly as much of a distraction as Seattle...it's a wash on average.

I like the Saints, but I have a feeling Detroit is in the better position for this shootout, having a better defense and with the Saints running game dinged. I'll take the upset here.

Speaking of flukes, what do we have here? I flipped a coin and it said Saints, I agree. Brees has looked good over the last two weeks and I look for him to take it the Lions at home.