Kind of like the millions upon millions of people that said B. Hussein Obama will make America better. He is pulling his facemask. It matters not to me if you don't accept what he did.
NFL 2015
- Thread starter Nathon Detroit
- Start date
- Status
Kind of like the millions upon millions of people that said B. Hussein Obama will make America better. He is pulling his facemask. It matters not to me if you don't accept what he did.
Brewmammy knows football ?
So, as I noted, it's hard to peak early and sustain. See: New England and Green Bay.
Okay, to simplify this...imagine the number 18-20 is the average strength of a decent team, with 21 being a decent team that can beat you here and there, on the right day, but isn't playoff bound and 25 being a playoff caliber contestant. 30+ is reserved for teams playing at a championship level and, as a rule, you don't want to see any team hit that mark before the mid-season, preferably last quarter of games. That's your background.
Here's how a few of the top contenders would look over the past five weeks (read it left to right, week 10-14).
GB: 28, 25, 26, 25, 22--so the Pack have been in steady decline since the loss to Denver. Can they change that? No evidence of it so far.
NE: 34, 32, 31, 30, 28--also declining, but their standard was so high it hasn't really cost them much yet, but if they can't find a way through, it's beginning to.
Arz: 27, 28, 29, 28, 30--this is what you want to see at this point in the season.
Den: 29, 27, 26, 27, 28--the team is rebounding. But they aren't beating anyone deep in the playoffs if Peyton can't get healthy enough to plant and throw.
Cin 28, 27, 27, 28, 31--I never trust that much of a single week jump, but otherwise solid.
KC: 29, 30, 32, 31, 31--holding on excellence or will they decline? Hard to say. Was the 32 the peak and start of a slower fall or the sort of bump correction you see with two or better jumps?
Sea: 25, 26, 26, 27, 30--look out. A big jump on the heels of steadier, slower progression. I don't think they're as good as last week yet, bu they have been heading there.
Car: 25, 26, 28, 30, 29--a very good football team that remains less spectacular than their record.
Pit: 27, -, 27, 26, 29--can't be overlooked, even hobbled, but another big jump in the last two. Next week will tell us what that means.
Okay, to simplify this...imagine the number 18-20 is the average strength of a decent team, with 21 being a decent team that can beat you here and there, on the right day, but isn't playoff bound and 25 being a playoff caliber contestant. 30+ is reserved for teams playing at a championship level and, as a rule, you don't want to see any team hit that mark before the mid-season, preferably last quarter of games. That's your background.
Here's how a few of the top contenders would look over the past five weeks (read it left to right, week 10-14).
GB: 28, 25, 26, 25, 22--so the Pack have been in steady decline since the loss to Denver. Can they change that? No evidence of it so far.
NE: 34, 32, 31, 30, 28--also declining, but their standard was so high it hasn't really cost them much yet, but if they can't find a way through, it's beginning to.
Arz: 27, 28, 29, 28, 30--this is what you want to see at this point in the season.
Den: 29, 27, 26, 27, 28--the team is rebounding. But they aren't beating anyone deep in the playoffs if Peyton can't get healthy enough to plant and throw.
Cin 28, 27, 27, 28, 31--I never trust that much of a single week jump, but otherwise solid.
KC: 29, 30, 32, 31, 31--holding on excellence or will they decline? Hard to say. Was the 32 the peak and start of a slower fall or the sort of bump correction you see with two or better jumps?
Sea: 25, 26, 26, 27, 30--look out. A big jump on the heels of steadier, slower progression. I don't think they're as good as last week yet, bu they have been heading there.
Car: 25, 26, 28, 30, 29--a very good football team that remains less spectacular than their record.
Pit: 27, -, 27, 26, 29--can't be overlooked, even hobbled, but another big jump in the last two. Next week will tell us what that means.
And the Blowzits?
Okay, what's on tap for tonight in the NFL...
Min @ Arz: the line is Cardinals and 7.5, the action is running 60/40 in favor of Arizona covering. (the split is 51/49 at 10.5, which is where the Vegas line has run to, though we'll stick with the opening line here).
What you need to know: The Vikings will be bringing the 30th ranked offense and the 15th ranked defense into Arizona, which fields the 1st ranked offense and the 4th ranked defense.
Doesn't sound like much of a game when you look at it that way, does it.
Minnesota has the 31st ranked passing attack and the 5th best rushing attack. Arizona is fifth against the run, though in a virtual tie for second, there being a yard or so separation until you get to the top spot, held by the Jets. So Arizona is made to stop the thing the Vikings do best. Meaning the Vikes will have to move the ball through the air more, where Arizona is still a presence, eighth against the pass.
Arizona has the 3rd best passing attack and the 8th best rushing attack. The Vikings defense? Sixth best against the pass, meaning Arizona will have to run the ball effectively. Good news for Cardinals fans, because Minnesota is 22nd against the run.
Overall this could be a lower scoring game given where the strengths lie. Both teams have been allowing around twenty points a game to opponents. Minnesota has been scoring about that as well, while the Cardinals are averaging closer to 32 pts a game.
Pick: On paper this is a clear win for Arizona. Computer modeling is going with the Cardinals and up to twelve points, while the gamblers are a bit more nervous on the spread. I'd be happier with seven, but I can live with the half point. I have the most likely outcome as Minnesota 17, Arizona 30
Min @ Arz: the line is Cardinals and 7.5, the action is running 60/40 in favor of Arizona covering. (the split is 51/49 at 10.5, which is where the Vegas line has run to, though we'll stick with the opening line here).
What you need to know: The Vikings will be bringing the 30th ranked offense and the 15th ranked defense into Arizona, which fields the 1st ranked offense and the 4th ranked defense.
Doesn't sound like much of a game when you look at it that way, does it.
Minnesota has the 31st ranked passing attack and the 5th best rushing attack. Arizona is fifth against the run, though in a virtual tie for second, there being a yard or so separation until you get to the top spot, held by the Jets. So Arizona is made to stop the thing the Vikings do best. Meaning the Vikes will have to move the ball through the air more, where Arizona is still a presence, eighth against the pass.
Arizona has the 3rd best passing attack and the 8th best rushing attack. The Vikings defense? Sixth best against the pass, meaning Arizona will have to run the ball effectively. Good news for Cardinals fans, because Minnesota is 22nd against the run.
Overall this could be a lower scoring game given where the strengths lie. Both teams have been allowing around twenty points a game to opponents. Minnesota has been scoring about that as well, while the Cardinals are averaging closer to 32 pts a game.
Pick: On paper this is a clear win for Arizona. Computer modeling is going with the Cardinals and up to twelve points, while the gamblers are a bit more nervous on the spread. I'd be happier with seven, but I can live with the half point. I have the most likely outcome as Minnesota 17, Arizona 30
Quetzal
New member
Palmer is on pace for a career defining season and I do not see Minnesota putting up too much of a fight. The Vikings defense took a beating last week hosting the Seahawks and I simply do not see them stopping an elite QB like Palmer.
Pick: The spread does concern me a bit. It concerns me because this season has been so dynamic and unpredictable that this looks like a game that could very easily go the other way. With that said, the numbers are too good for the Cardinals, I would feel like a fool if I took Minnesota on a hunch alone.
I don't know about looking like a fool, but I know I'd mock you until you were an embittered, shell of a man...so there's that.
Quetzal
New member
I still cannot believe you pegged New England last week... I thought to myself: "Well, there he goes. I knew it was going to happen eventually."I don't know about looking like a fool, but I know I'd mock you until you were an embittered, shell of a man...so there's that.
I'd been waiting. Teams that hit the 30s as early as they did will always taper off toward the end. Of course, the good news is they've trended down for a few weeks but there are enough for them to reverse that and they're still one of the best teams on the AFC side of things.I still cannot believe you pegged New England last week... I thought to myself: "Well, there he goes. I knew it was going to happen eventually."
The one team that kills me and has been the model of fluctuating consistency for a long while now is Miami. It never hits the 30s, but since Marino they've mostly managed to begin the season at around 19 or 20, rise mid to late in the season to the mid-twenties then fall again and be at 20 by the season's end. It's like clockwork.
Quetzal
New member
It begins and ends with Ryan Tannehill. You have no idea what kind of day he is going to have, much like Eli. He can be amazing like he was against Houston in Week 7 with 282 yards, 4 tds, coupled with 0 interceptions. Or, you get Trashcan Tannehill against the Jets boasting a mediocre 198 yards, 2 TDS, and 2 int, respectfully.
He's like the poster boy for this season, isn't he... :noid:
Quetzal
New member
Isn't that the truth. Some games I would have put my sister up to the cashier cage, I was so sure. (Glad I didn't...) :shocked:
:rotfl: That's really this season in a nutshell. A thing that has no business happening happens. So we get the win and the hat handed to us.
Quetzal
New member
Alright, this one might be brief but here we go!
Pitt @ Cinn (-3)
I see this gaming being a shoot out. Big Ben has been looking really good since coming back and I look for him to lead the way in this upset in Cincinnati, Steelers.
Buf @ Phi (Even)
I hate this game. The Eagles are a team that I have discredited all year long. Then, they go on to defeat the New England Patriots and now I don't know what to think. With that said, I like Taylor under center and the Philly defense still isn't really there... right? Bills.
Atl @ Car (-8.5)
The Panthers win this game, but that line worries me. Two possessions is a lot and the Atlanta defense isn't that bad. Even so, Matt Ryan has been really bad the last few weeks and I do not see him regaining any traction on the road. Panthers.
SF @ Cle (-1.5)
Trash game, but I like Cleveland enough. Browns.
Wash @ Chi (-3.5)
After last weeks snoozer against the Dallas Cowboys, can I really expect them to do anything against Da Bears? I have no idea. Honestly, I don't know much of anything anymore. If Cousins decides to show up, they will do work against Cutler and the boys. I will take the upset. Redskins.
Det @ StL (+3)
Speaking of a team that I can't peg, let's talk about the Lions. This is the same team that beat Green Bay at home but lost to the Chargers. Although, they were a hop, skip and a jump away from beating the Packers again last week, so I have a little bit of faith... Lions.
SD @ KC (-10.5)
The Chiefs are on a rampage right now, winning their last six games straight. The last time they faced the Chargers they crushed them by 30 points. Okay okay, Chiefs!
NO @ TB (-4.5)
Brees has been wildly inconsistent and who knows if he decides to play this week. The real story, though, is the NO offense that has let anyone pass through them. With that in mind, Bucs!
Ind @ Jac (Even)
If you would have told me at the beginning of this season that this would have been a pick'em game I would have called you nuts. Jacksonville is simply worse, Colts.
Tenn @NYJ (-7)
Fitzy has been looking good, I look for this to continue this week against the Titans. Jets!
NE @ Hou (+3.5)
I don't like this game because there are too many questions. Is Amendola playing? Gronk coming back? These are the two players that Brady and company need this week. Arghhh.... ermm.... fine, Patriots.
Oak @ Den (-7)
The Broncos just aren't putting up points and that worries me. Although, they did beat New England and Thomas is healthy. Broncos.
Dallas @ Green Bay (-7)
If Green Bay can't beat Dallas by at least a touch down... telling me to "relax" won't cut it, Aaron! Packers.
Sea @ Balt (+12.5)
I'm sorry, the line is what?! Although, to be fair, Wilson is hot right now and Baltimore sucks something awful. Wilson should have a free day against the Ravens and if not, his defense should more than make up for it. Seahawks.
NYG @ Mia (+1.5)
Gee, another Monday night game I could not care less about. Well, gun to my head, if Eli can't find it here, it's gone for good. Giants.
Pitt @ Cinn (-3)
I see this gaming being a shoot out. Big Ben has been looking really good since coming back and I look for him to lead the way in this upset in Cincinnati, Steelers.
Buf @ Phi (Even)
I hate this game. The Eagles are a team that I have discredited all year long. Then, they go on to defeat the New England Patriots and now I don't know what to think. With that said, I like Taylor under center and the Philly defense still isn't really there... right? Bills.
Atl @ Car (-8.5)
The Panthers win this game, but that line worries me. Two possessions is a lot and the Atlanta defense isn't that bad. Even so, Matt Ryan has been really bad the last few weeks and I do not see him regaining any traction on the road. Panthers.
SF @ Cle (-1.5)
Trash game, but I like Cleveland enough. Browns.
Wash @ Chi (-3.5)
After last weeks snoozer against the Dallas Cowboys, can I really expect them to do anything against Da Bears? I have no idea. Honestly, I don't know much of anything anymore. If Cousins decides to show up, they will do work against Cutler and the boys. I will take the upset. Redskins.
Det @ StL (+3)
Speaking of a team that I can't peg, let's talk about the Lions. This is the same team that beat Green Bay at home but lost to the Chargers. Although, they were a hop, skip and a jump away from beating the Packers again last week, so I have a little bit of faith... Lions.
SD @ KC (-10.5)
The Chiefs are on a rampage right now, winning their last six games straight. The last time they faced the Chargers they crushed them by 30 points. Okay okay, Chiefs!
NO @ TB (-4.5)
Brees has been wildly inconsistent and who knows if he decides to play this week. The real story, though, is the NO offense that has let anyone pass through them. With that in mind, Bucs!
Ind @ Jac (Even)
If you would have told me at the beginning of this season that this would have been a pick'em game I would have called you nuts. Jacksonville is simply worse, Colts.
Tenn @NYJ (-7)
Fitzy has been looking good, I look for this to continue this week against the Titans. Jets!
NE @ Hou (+3.5)
I don't like this game because there are too many questions. Is Amendola playing? Gronk coming back? These are the two players that Brady and company need this week. Arghhh.... ermm.... fine, Patriots.
Oak @ Den (-7)
The Broncos just aren't putting up points and that worries me. Although, they did beat New England and Thomas is healthy. Broncos.
Dallas @ Green Bay (-7)
If Green Bay can't beat Dallas by at least a touch down... telling me to "relax" won't cut it, Aaron! Packers.
Sea @ Balt (+12.5)
I'm sorry, the line is what?! Although, to be fair, Wilson is hot right now and Baltimore sucks something awful. Wilson should have a free day against the Ravens and if not, his defense should more than make up for it. Seahawks.
NYG @ Mia (+1.5)
Gee, another Monday night game I could not care less about. Well, gun to my head, if Eli can't find it here, it's gone for good. Giants.
I don't love this game. Both teams have scored over 30 a lot of late and both have been scored on a good bit. If Bell was running for the Steelers I'd love them as spoilers. Without him and on the road? I'll stick with the Bengals.
Buffalo, because the Eagles just had their moral victory, the Bills have more talent and...someone has to win.
I took them at 7.5...so I suppose I'll stick with them anyway. Atlanta hasn't put up more than 21 points in their last five games, averaging around 17. That much talent and the offense is just atrocious. Someone(s) will be looking for work next year.
Manziel gets to show something to someone. I like it either way but I'll take the Browns at home.
I'll take you being upset when this one is over. :think: Chicago by seven.
With me it's mostly about a lack of faith in a Rams. 18, 13, 13, 7 and 3. That's how many points they've managed to score in the last 5 games. And the 18 points took overtime.
Detroit.Should be a blowout. KC
I think you meant the story was the DEfense...just about as bad as one could play. Yeah, we agree again.
This one is harder for me. Hasselbeck is starting to look creaky...they barely got past Atlanta on the road. I'm going contrarian and taking the Jags.
That's a line I can live with. Especially on the road.
:think: You could make the case for Houston, but it's hard for me to believe they won't course correct at some point. This one could be that game. I'd rather have it a fg, for the reasons you mentioned.
The defense plays better when they know it's on them. And the offense is doing enough. Shouldn't be close.
I like it 28-17, Pack. So that means Dallas will keep it close and put it to both of us. :noid:
My ESPN line was 8.5. I'd take that. That's a huge line. I don't like it...but I like the way Seattle is trending so I'll take it anyway.
QB play really isn't the league problem right now. Eli has a better than 90 qbr, which is good. And he's 17th in the league. Could go either way, but I'll take the Giants as well.
Quetzal
New member
Yep, oops.
I checked yesterday, do they fluctuate throughout the week? I assume they would...
It depends, some will and others, especially pick'em games, not as much. The opening line can feed interest and bets and that can drive it to move, Vegas covering its tail, so to speak.Yep, oops.
I checked yesterday, do they fluctuate throughout the week? I assume they would...
- Status