As a Pats fan I'm impressed by your optimism.:chuckle:
NFL 2014
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As a Pats fan I'm impressed by your optimism.:chuckle:
What stands out for me is the lack of context. By way of, Jacksonville, now a joke around NFL circles, was once anything but, contending for a spot in the SB. In fact, most of the teams below your contrived line have had good years and during Peyton's time. Three of them actually went to a Super Bowl, by additional way of.
New England has had the luxury of playing most of those games against Peyton at home. And I'd say that was truer early in both men's careers, when the better team, head to toe, was equally clearly the Pats. Not so much since, though it's a great, great rivalry and it's hard to feel cheated regardless of which side you come down on.
Contrived?
The list is in order of winning percentage from .000% to 100%
The line was inserted at the .600%.
Peyton has a winning percentage of .600% or less against teams before the line, and more than .600% against teams after the line.
The topic was teams that were "fazed or intimidated" against Peyton.
JPHamilton
New member
Remember me when your Patriots are losing in the fourth quarter of the SB. :up:
...I'll be thinking of your 'Hawks when we're both bounced in the divisional round.:up:
Let's now look at what Peyton's record against teams in the postseason is (I'll include winning percentage this time)
Miami 0 -1 .000%
New Orleans 0 -1 .000%
Pittsburgh 0 -1 .000%
Tennessee 0-1 .000%
Seattle 0-1 .000%
San Diego 1-2 .333%
NY Jets 1-2 .333%
New England 2-2 .500%
Baltimore 2-1 .667%
Chicago 1-0 1.000%
Denver 2-0 1.000%
Kansas City 2-0 1.000%
Total playoffs 11-12 .478%
Miami 0 -1 .000%
New Orleans 0 -1 .000%
Pittsburgh 0 -1 .000%
Tennessee 0-1 .000%
Seattle 0-1 .000%
San Diego 1-2 .333%
NY Jets 1-2 .333%
New England 2-2 .500%
Baltimore 2-1 .667%
Chicago 1-0 1.000%
Denver 2-0 1.000%
Kansas City 2-0 1.000%
Total playoffs 11-12 .478%
Not so fast.
I have seen the "Peyton Regular Season Greatness" followed by "Peyton Chokes in the Postseason" way too many times.
It happened in 1999, 2000, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2012, & 2013
it will happen again
Sure. Those averages don't tell the whole story. I set out why.
Thanks for continuing to set out your unreasonable bias when it comes to Peyton.
Teams win championships. Individuals post records. As it sits, Peyton has the sort of team he can win in the post season with. Heck, he had it last year except for that cobbled offensive line and a great one season defense gave him less than a second and a half to get the ball out of his hands.
Here's me putting the dunce cap on you and chrys when it comes to your remarkable blinkers a few posts back:
During the regular season Peyton has had a qb rating of 90 or better in all but 3 seasons, with a qb rating over 100 in 6 of those.
In 13 post season appearance years (when, as I'll demonstrate later, just about everyone's numbers dip) he was above 90 in qb rating 8 of the 13 and 3 of those over 100.
That's not a qb who can't get it done at his position in the post season. It's a qb who runs into the best opposition, typically on the road and has inconsistent team play doom him. Heck, his second SB ended on a defensive failure to preserve the lead he'd given them with a great drive. Reminded me of what happened to Warner with Arizonza.
A failure, let alone a total one, doesn't get to multiple SBs, let alone win one. And his qbr tells us where the fault lies. It's not with Peyton.
Career Playoff Passer ratings:
1. Bart Starr 104.8
2. Aaron Rodgers 103.1
3. Kurt Warner 102.8
4. Drew Brees 100.7
5. Joe Montana 95.6
6. Mark Sanchez 94.3
7. Ken Anderson 93.5
8. Joe Theismann 91.4
9. Eli Manning 89.3
10. Peyton Manning 89.2
11. Troy Aikman 88.3
12. Tom Brady 87.5
13. Colin Kaepernick 87.3
14. Brett Favre 86.3
15. Joe Flacco 86.2
16. Steve Young 85.8
17. Philip Rivers 85.2
Matt Ryan 85.2
19. Warren Moon 84.9
20. Rich Gannon 84.6
I'd say this illustrates that it's easier to pass the ball (going to B's point earlier) given how one sided the list is in terms of more recent players.
1. Bart Starr 104.8
2. Aaron Rodgers 103.1
3. Kurt Warner 102.8
4. Drew Brees 100.7
5. Joe Montana 95.6
6. Mark Sanchez 94.3
7. Ken Anderson 93.5
8. Joe Theismann 91.4
9. Eli Manning 89.3
10. Peyton Manning 89.2
11. Troy Aikman 88.3
12. Tom Brady 87.5
13. Colin Kaepernick 87.3
14. Brett Favre 86.3
15. Joe Flacco 86.2
16. Steve Young 85.8
17. Philip Rivers 85.2
Matt Ryan 85.2
19. Warren Moon 84.9
20. Rich Gannon 84.6
I'd say this illustrates that it's easier to pass the ball (going to B's point earlier) given how one sided the list is in terms of more recent players.
JPHamilton
New member
Good observation!
50% is one sided?
What 50? Where's Otto Graham, Sammy Baugh...heck, where's Johnny Unitas? Or, how many of those players even predate 1970?
Peyton Manning is 2-4 in his last six postseason games.
This includes his two interceptions (one for a pick-6 four minutes before halftime) in last years Super Bowl, the horrible interception against Baltimore in overtime the year before (his third turnover of the game), and the pick-6 in the Super Bowl against the Saints.
The Berean
Well-known member
That's why comparing players of the past (pre 1980's) with more recent players is pointless. The rules have changed so much to make it much easier to pass that direct comparisons as not possible.
How many games did he have to win to get to the last Super Bowl? Or, you keep choosing a number that doesn't actually have much to do with how well or poorly Peyton plays. I keep giving you numbers that do. And why last six? He's been in four in the last two. I suspect you pick those last six to make the number you want.
So it's overly broad or cherry picking. His first year with Denver he had a first game loss where his contribution, reflected in his rating, was a respectable 88.3, with a 64% completion percentage and 290 yards.
2013: three games. Rating: an impressive 94.2, a 71.1 completion percentage and a little over 900 yards.
I think it's hard, but I also think the edge goes to the newer guys. They have easier rules, but also better defenses to contend with and much more complicated schemes.
Had a good beginning to the prognosticating week Thursday, calling Denver to make the line, which was 7.5
My model had it 35 - 21 with Denver prevailing. Final score? 35-21
Here are the remaining games. A lot of tough ones in there.
2. Det @ Atl: There's no excuse for the under performing Falcons and their coach will likely pay for it in the off-season. This week Detroit is rolling in at 6-2, coming off the tough one point victory of NO. The action is 70/30 in favor of the Lions covering a 3.5 line.
I have it 26-21 and the Lions make the points.
3. Buf @ Jets: should be interesting to see what a legitimate number one at wide out will mean for the Jets. The line has them a 2.5 pick'em winner. The action runs against it 58/42. I have the Bills by one so I'll jump on the slim margin and take the upset.
4. Chi @ NE: the Pats are a 6.5 favorite. The action is running 62/38 for New England to cover that line. I have the Pats by nine so I'm pulling for them to cover.
5. Bal @ Cin: the Bengals are a 1.5 favorite and do play better at home, but the action is Bal 66/44 and I have the Ravens winning by five. I'll take Baltimore.
6. Hou @ Ten: the Texans are a half point favorite. The action is 87/13 in agreement with the line. I like Houston by a fg.
7. SL @ KC: KC playing againg. Good news for kmo. The Chiefs are a 6.5 home favorite and the action is soundly behind that at 61/39. I like KC to cover easily and by as much as seventeen.
8. Mia @ Jac: Miami is a 5.5 favorite. Good team playing a team that has already had one unlikely upset and has nothing to lose. Action is 75/25 that the Fins don't give the Jags a second stab at upset. I like Miami by eight so I'll take the line.
9. Min @ TB: the Bucs are a slim 2.5 favorite. Action has it about dead even. I like Min on the points. My model has TB winning by a point.
10. Sea @ Car: the once but no longer prohibitive king comes in a 4.5 favorite over the once daunting but now schizophrenic Panthers. Action has it 68/31 in favor of the Hawks righting a listing ship and coming out with a win. I'll take Carolina and the points, though my model once again has a one point margin, this time in favor of Seattle.
11. Phi @ Arz: the Cardinals are a 2.5 favorite. Action favors an upset, if marginally 53/47. My model likes Arizona by two so I'm going with the action and Philly.
12. Oak @ Cle: the recently embarrassed Browns are still a 7.5 favorite over visiting Oakland. That tells you how hapless the Raiders are in the eyes of the wise guys of Vegas. Action likes the upset 57/43. I have it Cleveland 26, Oak 19...so another line that could kill me. I'm with da Raiders, sadly.
13. Ind @ Pit: my Colts are a blistering...2.5 favorite visiting the Steelers. Action is all over that line by 84/16. I like Indy and nine so I'll take go with that line.
14. GB @ NO: a Vegas pick'em with the reeling Saints an onion thin 1.5 favorite at home. Packer lovers are ecstatic to the tune of a 76/24 split in favor of the meek upset. I like Green Bay by five.
15. Was @ Dal: the old rivalry. The line is set for a Cowboys' thumping of Colt's team and Dallas welcomes Washington with a 9.5 line in their favor. Action agrees 63/37 and I have the Cowboys by as much as two tds.
The Giants and Niners have the bye.
My model had it 35 - 21 with Denver prevailing. Final score? 35-21
Here are the remaining games. A lot of tough ones in there.
2. Det @ Atl: There's no excuse for the under performing Falcons and their coach will likely pay for it in the off-season. This week Detroit is rolling in at 6-2, coming off the tough one point victory of NO. The action is 70/30 in favor of the Lions covering a 3.5 line.
I have it 26-21 and the Lions make the points.
3. Buf @ Jets: should be interesting to see what a legitimate number one at wide out will mean for the Jets. The line has them a 2.5 pick'em winner. The action runs against it 58/42. I have the Bills by one so I'll jump on the slim margin and take the upset.
4. Chi @ NE: the Pats are a 6.5 favorite. The action is running 62/38 for New England to cover that line. I have the Pats by nine so I'm pulling for them to cover.
5. Bal @ Cin: the Bengals are a 1.5 favorite and do play better at home, but the action is Bal 66/44 and I have the Ravens winning by five. I'll take Baltimore.
6. Hou @ Ten: the Texans are a half point favorite. The action is 87/13 in agreement with the line. I like Houston by a fg.
7. SL @ KC: KC playing againg. Good news for kmo. The Chiefs are a 6.5 home favorite and the action is soundly behind that at 61/39. I like KC to cover easily and by as much as seventeen.
8. Mia @ Jac: Miami is a 5.5 favorite. Good team playing a team that has already had one unlikely upset and has nothing to lose. Action is 75/25 that the Fins don't give the Jags a second stab at upset. I like Miami by eight so I'll take the line.
9. Min @ TB: the Bucs are a slim 2.5 favorite. Action has it about dead even. I like Min on the points. My model has TB winning by a point.
10. Sea @ Car: the once but no longer prohibitive king comes in a 4.5 favorite over the once daunting but now schizophrenic Panthers. Action has it 68/31 in favor of the Hawks righting a listing ship and coming out with a win. I'll take Carolina and the points, though my model once again has a one point margin, this time in favor of Seattle.
11. Phi @ Arz: the Cardinals are a 2.5 favorite. Action favors an upset, if marginally 53/47. My model likes Arizona by two so I'm going with the action and Philly.
12. Oak @ Cle: the recently embarrassed Browns are still a 7.5 favorite over visiting Oakland. That tells you how hapless the Raiders are in the eyes of the wise guys of Vegas. Action likes the upset 57/43. I have it Cleveland 26, Oak 19...so another line that could kill me. I'm with da Raiders, sadly.
13. Ind @ Pit: my Colts are a blistering...2.5 favorite visiting the Steelers. Action is all over that line by 84/16. I like Indy and nine so I'll take go with that line.
14. GB @ NO: a Vegas pick'em with the reeling Saints an onion thin 1.5 favorite at home. Packer lovers are ecstatic to the tune of a 76/24 split in favor of the meek upset. I like Green Bay by five.
15. Was @ Dal: the old rivalry.
The line is set for a Cowboys' thumping of Colt's team and Dallas welcomes Washington with a 9.5 line in their favor. Action agrees 63/37 and I have the Cowboys by as much as two tds.The Giants and Niners have the bye.
So far so good. I'm 166th out of over a hundred and sixty thousand ESPN prognosticators.
1-0
2-1
3-1
3-2 :mmph:
4-2
5-2
6-2
7-2
8-2
I'll edit/update the rest later.
Had a good beginning to the prognosticating week Thursday, calling Denver to make the line, which was 7.5 My model had it 35 - 21 with Denver prevailing. Final score? 35-21
1-0Ah well. The Lions were as expected, but Atlanta managed to play well enough to blow the 3.5 line and lose by a point. :mmph: 1-1
The Bills did even better than I thought, taking the game in a mild upset, 43-23
2-1
Did I say nine? Try 51-23 and it wasn't even that close.
3-1
Another loss but shouldn't have been. Baltimore was up late when the cats rallied and but for a call on a needless push (and a flop) at the end would have won the game. Mehl
3-2 :mmph:
More like 30-16, which is so much gravy.
4-2
34-7 trouncing, exceeding my expectations by ten.
5-2
27-13 and the Fins have ti.
6-2
It took overtime, so the slim margin was correct during regulation and the upset capped by the Vikings in the OT, 19-13
7-2
Carolina was game, but as predicted the line was too large. Seattle wins it late, 13-9
8-2
I'll edit/update the rest later.
15. Was @ Dal: the old rivalry.
Ben Roethlisberger's stats today:
40/49.....522 yards.....6 touchdowns....0 interceptions
In doing so, Big Ben becomes the only QB in the history of the NFL to throw for 500 yards twice in his career.
Also, with the Steelers win over the Colts, Big Ben joins Bradshaw, Montana, and Brady as the only QB's to win 100 games or more in their first 150 starts. (Therefore, 2 of the 4 are Steelers)
All in all, it was a very good day for Ben Roethlisberger.
40/49.....522 yards.....6 touchdowns....0 interceptions
In doing so, Big Ben becomes the only QB in the history of the NFL to throw for 500 yards twice in his career.
Also, with the Steelers win over the Colts, Big Ben joins Bradshaw, Montana, and Brady as the only QB's to win 100 games or more in their first 150 starts. (Therefore, 2 of the 4 are Steelers)
All in all, it was a very good day for Ben Roethlisberger.
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