NFL 2014

[Town Heretic]

Interesting day for football, with Peyton's chase of Favre going national as the late game against the Niners.

I whiffed on Thursday's game which had the Pats a 9.5 favorite against the Jets and learned my lesson about over inflating that one.

Today?

Atl @ Bal: the Ravens are a 6.5 favorite to send the Falcons home with another loss. The action has it a 60/40 split in favor of Baltimore covering. I like it 34-21 for Baltimore, so I'm taking that cover.

Min @ Buf: the Bills are a 4.5 home favorite with the action spitting 80/20 in favor of them making the line. I have it 24-16 Bills so I'll take that line as well.

Mia @ Chi: hate this game...the Bears are a 3.5 home favorite. The action is all over this one with a 75/25 split for the Bears. My model has it a field goal of a contest or an upset for Miami, so I'm taking the fins against the overwhelming betting sentiment. :noid:

Cin @ Ind: the Colts are a modest 2.5 favorite at home against the inconsistent road game of the Bengals. The action is close to another 80/20 on Indy handling their business. I like them by as much as eight and as little as four, which covers either way so I'm taking my Colts.

Cle @ Jac: the who cares bowl sees the Browns a relatively modest 4.5 road favorite. The action is 79/21 in favor of that outcome. I have the Browns by 9 so I'm in.

NO @ Det: two talented dome teams see a slim 2.5 pickem line in favor of the home team. The Saints really need this one...but I like the Lions by between 3 and 6 so I'm taking Detroit. The action is even on this one.

Car @ GB: I wonder who is going to show up for Carolina this week...the line is a home favoring 6.5 and the action is running 55/45 on that big a line. I like the Packers to cover and possibly then some.

Ten @ Was: Washington is a 4.5 home favorite. The action is an even split on the line. I'll nervously take that and look for a cover.

Sea @ SL: how the mighty have fallen. The Hawks are a measly 6.5 going into Saint Lous. 87/13 action to cover says the wise guys still love them. So do I and I'll take the action and look for a ten to fourteen point drubbing of the Rams.

KC @ SD: the good team everyone forgot vs the hot team that makes everyone nervous, one way or the other...the Chargers are a 4.5 favorite at home. The action is 66/34 that they'll cover. I like the Chief's chances to take it to the wire or win out so I'll take the upset.

Gia @ Dal: an old, great rivalry with two teams looking to solidify their national image, if for different reasons. Dallas is a gaudy 6.5 home favorite. The action is split around 60/40 for the Cowboys' band wagon to continue rolling...I have them a two touchdown favorite, so who am I to argue.

Arz @ Oak: the curse of the Carrs continues with yet another talented, young qb being thrown to the wolves on Sunday. For some reason the Cardinals are a scant 3.5 road favorite. I like them by 9 or better and the action is split 85/15 behind me. So go Arizona.

SF @ Den: the Broncos are a 6.5 home favorite against a tough Niner squad. The action is a less enthusiastic split of 55/45. I like it a likely 7 point margin so I'll squirm but take Peyton's boys to cover and Favre's record to fall.

Hou @ Pit: not long ago this would be an interesting match up...the line is the Steelers by 3.5. The action says 65/35 take the Texans. I have it dead even so I'm going with the action and for the mild upset.

I'll try to get these in by Saturday from here on out. Leave time to discuss the whys and hows of these lines.

 

[tetelestai]

Cle @ Jac

Every time there's a glimmer of hope in Cleveland...BAM...it's back to reality for Browns fans.

Losing to an 0-6 team is one thing, but getting embarrassed by an 0-6 team is something else.

Next week the Browns get the only remaining winless team left in the NFL, the Oakland Raiders, who are also 0-6.

Back-to-back games against 0-6 teams......one would think the Browns should be able to win one of the games.

 

[Town Heretic]

The day so far...

Atl @ Bal: the Ravens are a 6.5 favorite to send the Falcons home with another loss. The action has it a 60/40 split in favor of Baltimore covering. I like it 34-21 for Baltimore, so I'm taking that cover.

Baltimore did about what I expected. Atlanta was even more anemic than anticipated. :thumb:

Min @ Buf: the Bills are a 4.5 home favorite with the action spitting 80/20 in favor of them making the line. I have it 24-16 Bills so I'll take that line as well.

Ah, well. A win but not against the line. Strange day indeed.

Mia @ Chi: hate this game...the Bears are a 3.5 home favorite. The action is all over this one with a 75/25 split for the Bears. My model has it a field goal of a contest or an upset for Miami, so I'm taking the fins against the overwhelming betting sentiment. :noid:

That would have been a money making game for me. :thumb:

Cin @ Ind: the Colts are a modest 2.5 favorite at home against the inconsistent road game of the Bengals. The action is close to another 80/20 on Indy handling their business. I like them by as much as eight and as little as four, which covers either way so I'm taking my Colts.

|Bam! :thumb:

Cle @ Jac: the who cares bowl sees the Browns a relatively modest 4.5 road favorite. The action is 79/21 in favor of that outcome. I have the Browns by 9 so I'm in.

And the Johnny Football era just got a little bit closer. :mmph:

NO @ Det: two talented dome teams see a slim 2.5 pickem line in favor of the home team. The Saints really need this one...but I like the Lions by between 3 and 6 so I'm taking Detroit. The action is even on this one.

So of course the winner of this crap fest managed it by a point. :mmph:

Car @ GB: I wonder who is going to show up for Carolina this week...the line is a home favoring 6.5 and the action is running 55/45 on that big a line. I like the Packers to cover and possibly then some.

:thumb:

Ten @ Was: Washington is a 4.5 home favorite. The action is an even split on the line. I'll nervously take that and look for a cover.

And the Colt McCoy era has....well, likely not, but good grief. :mmph:

Sea @ SL: how the mighty have fallen. The Hawks are a measly 6.5 going into Saint Lous. 87/13 action to cover says the wise guys still love them. So do I and I'll take the action and look for a ten to fourteen point drubbing of the Rams.

It's worse than I thought for Seattle. I'd said that defense over extended, a-la Saints, but this year's tilt is surprising. :mmph:

KC @ SD: the good team everyone forgot vs the hot team that makes everyone nervous, one way or the other...the Chargers are a 4.5 favorite at home. The action is 66/34 that they'll cover. I like the Chief's chances to take it to the wire or win out so I'll take the upset.

My second money play. With that action you could eat the losing calls and come out smiling. :thumb:

Gia @ Dal: an old, great rivalry with two teams looking to solidify their national image, if for different reasons. Dallas is a gaudy 6.5 home favorite. The action is split around 60/40 for the Cowboys' band wagon to continue rolling...I have them a two touchdown favorite, so who am I to argue.

:thumb:

Arz @ Oak: the curse of the Carrs continues with yet another talented, young qb being thrown to the wolves on Sunday. For some reason the Cardinals are a scant 3.5 road favorite. I like them by 9 or better and the action is split 85/15 behind me. So go Arizona.

:thumb:

 

[kmoney]

:banana: KC

 

[Town Heretic]

:banana: KC

And who has been in front of that appreciate KC curve?

Money.

 

[tetelestai]

and Favre's record to fall.

Favre's record didn't even make it to halftime.

 

[kmoney]

And who has been in front of that appreciate KC curve?

Money.

:first:

:cheers:

 

[Nick M]

Ah, well. A win but not against the line. Strange day indeed.

It isn't like the spread was ever a prediction. It was just created to get you to bet one way while somebody else goes the other way (emoting).

And I know you already know better.

 

[john w]

The juggernaut marches on....

 

[Town Heretic]

It isn't like the spread was ever a prediction. It was just created to get you to bet one way while somebody else goes the other way (emoting).

And I know you already know better.

Sure. I look at the wise guy line, then the betting action and like to predict against them using my own mathematical model. I actually have two. The one I'm using now is pretty good, keeps me solidly toward the top of this sort of competition and doesn't take much more than a light few days of adaptation. The serious one had me 15th out of over a hundred thousand players and with a handful of perfect weeks, is the one I'd bet if I was the betting sort, but takes a lot of time to figure, given I go, literally, player by player and build them into it.

Way too much work for the father of a three year old. This is more fun.

Right now I'm feeling better and better about my notion that the Seahawks have more in common with that great defensive Bears' team than the Steelers. And Denver is looking more and more like a slightly more measured and methodical offense coupled with a defensively more stout and capable unit, which makes them the prohibitive favorite with me to win the whole thing.

With Seattle back to the pack there really isn't an NFC team that frightens, that doesn't have weaknesses Peyton and company couldn't exploit. If the playoffs were held today I'd say the real challenges would be among a handful of AFC teams.

 

[kmoney]

:CRASH: Denver

 

[Nick M]

Cle @ Jac: the who cares bowl sees the Browns a relatively modest 4.5 road favorite. The action is 79/21 in favor of that outcome. I have the Browns by 9 so I'm in.

Apparently not Cleveland. I about fell out of my chair laughing when I saw the score.

 

[Town Heretic]

Apparently not Cleveland. I about fell out of my chair laughing when I saw the score.

Just didn't make sense. I can see a bad game against a good team, but losing to the Jags?

Also, though we agree on the greatest to play the position, I'm having to at least entertain the argument for Peyton at this point. I do so for a few reasons.

Individuals set records. Teams win championships and Montana was the captain of a vastly more talented team. HOFers on both sides of the ball, the sort of team that would have been a contender without that greatness on one side. That is, the defense was so good that a decent offense with one particular talent could have seen them in contention a-la the Bears or Ravens. And a decent defense could have seen them win with that offense.

So Joe went into those SBs, especially the last three, with a very different mentality. It's easier to play from in front. It's harder to understand that you're walking into a fight against a more balanced team and only have a handful of players to count on. And that was Manning for most of his career.

And it's hard for me to believe that given Montana's set up Peyton wouldn't have as many or more rings to show. I say more because he's built for a longevity and even without the rules changes to coddle him he's always had the Marino like release point to protect him from the sort of hits Montana took. So I don't think a Young would have gotten the chance at his one.

 

[kmoney]

Apparently not Cleveland. I about fell out of my chair laughing when I saw the score.

I'd like to hear what some of the Cleveland bandwagoners are saying this morning. :chuckle:

 

[tetelestai]

I'm having to at least entertain the argument for Peyton at this point.

It's not even an argument.

Peyton is the greatest regular season QB of all time, but a total failure when it comes to the postseason.

Because of his postseason debacles, he will never be close to being equal to Montana.

 

[chrysostom]

here is a theory
during the season peyton is so good the team starts to rely on him more and more
and
deep into the playoffs
the good defensive teams show up
and
have time to prepare for him
and
his receivers
a one man team gets weaker late in the playoffs

 

[The Berean]

Favre's record didn't even make it to halftime.

Congrats to Peyton Manning for setting a new all time TD passing record. But given all the rules changes that the NFL has instituted in the past 40-50 years I really don't know how to place his record in its proper historical perspective. The NFL is set up today to generate lots oodles of passing yards and passing TD's. Just check out the single season passing yards and TD's all-time lists. Most of the season come within the past 10 years or so.

 

[Town Heretic]

It's not even an argument.

Peyton is the greatest regular season QB of all time, but a total failure when it comes to the postseason.

You only say that because you don't know the numbers.

During the regular season Peyton has had a qb rating of 90 or better in all but 3 seasons, with a qb rating over 100 in 6 of those.

In 13 post season appearance years (when, as I'll demonstrate later, just about everyone's numbers dip) he was above 90 in qb rating 8 of the 13 and 3 of those over 100.

That's not a qb who can't get it done at his position in the post season. It's a qb who runs into the best opposition, typically on the road and has inconsistent team play doom him. Heck, his second SB ended on a defensive failure to preserve the lead he'd given them with a great drive. Reminded me of what happened to Warner with Arizonza.

A failure, let alone a total one, doesn't get to multiple SBs, let alone win one. And his qbr tells us where the fault lies. It's not with Peyton.

Because of his postseason debacles, he will never be close to being equal to Montana.

Only among people who don't understand the game, which means in the popular opinion you may be right. May. I think his dominance in the numbers will give him more credit than you seem to believe, the way it worked for Marino, except, of course, he already has a SB win and may very well add to that total.

Congrats to Peyton Manning for setting a new all time TD passing record. But given all the rules changes that the NFL has instituted in the past 40-50 years I really don't know how to place his record in its proper historical perspective.

Look at his stats over the longer haul then. He's been pretty consistent in the number of tds, with a couple of exceptions. He threw for 33 in 2000, by way of.

I wouldn't argue that it's easier on qbs, but Peyton would be Peyton in any era. Marino agrees on the point and he was doing it when it was much harder on wrs and qbs.

The NFL is set up today to generate lots oodles of passing yards and passing TD's.

Yet for all but a couple of seasons Peyton has generated about the same number of both, only dipping below four thousand yards in 98 and 2003.

Just check out the single season passing yards and TD's all-time lists. Most of the season come within the past 10 years or so.

I think that has about as much to do with the shift in emphasis as anything else, though protecting wrs has pushed that tendency.

And again, Montana (my personal favorite) had unbelievable talent around him on both sides of the ball. Until we get to Brady that's true of every dynasty.

 

[The Berean]

Look at his stats over the longer haul then. He's been pretty consistent in the number of tds, with a couple of exceptions. He threw for 33 in 2000, by way of.

I wouldn't argue that it's easier on qbs, but Peyton would be Peyton in any era. Marino agrees on the point and he was doing it when it was much harder on wrs and qbs.

No doubt Manning and Tom Brady are GREAT QB's. I believe talent will rise in any condition. But those conditions would dictate what kind of statistics they put up. Think of it this way. Lets say tomorrow the NFL decides to revert the game to 1940's-1950's style football. They will play football using 1950's rules, equipment, fields, and tactics. "Dirty play" that was typical of that era is allowed (clothes lining, late hits, jumping on a players chest after the whistle--Art Donovan said he used to do this). Would Manning, Brady or any other active QB be able to pass for 5,000 yards or 45-50 TD's in a season under these conditions? I highly doubt it. They would struggle to pass for half those yards and 20 TD's. But their innate talent is still the same. I believe Manning and Brady would still dominate in these conditions but they would be unable to put up video game stats.

 

[Town Heretic]

No doubt Manning and Tom Brady are GREAT QB's. I believe talent will rise in any condition. But those conditions would dictate what kind of statistics they put up. Think of it this way. Lets say tomorrow the NFL decides to revert the game to 1940's-1950's style football. They will play football using 1950's rules, equipment, fields, and tactics. "Dirty play" that was typical of that era is allowed (clothes lining, late hits, jumping on a players chest after the whistle--Art Donovan said he used to do this). Would Manning, Brady or any other active QB be able to pass for 5,000 yards or 45-50 TD's in a season under these conditions? I highly doubt it. They would struggle to pass for half those yards and 20 TD's. But their innate talent is still the same. I believe Manning and Brady would still dominate in these conditions but they would be unable to put up video game stats.

I see your point, but the other side of it is the complication of defenses and offensive systems and the fact that players are bigger, faster and stronger too on the defensive side. The game is so much faster and more complicated you could argue that the generational best might put up even gaudier numbers. Look at Sammy Baugh throwing more than twenty in the 40s on multiple occasions despite the orthodoxy about running, before we get into field conditions and even the ball he used.

The game might look amazingly slow to them and easier. Especially true for Peyton and his release time.