NFL 2015

[Town Heretic]

Week 5

Was @ Atl
Line: Atl 7.5
Split: 80/20 the Falcons cover.
Pick: Atlanta. Washington is better than expected, but the Falcons are on another offensive level and an early division sweep is a pretty good motivation.

Just missed to go 0-2 as Atlanta misses covering by 1.4. :mmph: A hole to dig out of then.

Buf @ Ten Line: Buf 2.5 Split: 75/25 Ten
Pick: So the line is running for a fg deciding and everyone and their mother is taking that the other way with the Titans. Two good young qbs, but the overall talent is playing for Buffalo and Rex should be able to scheme a freshman into difference making mistakes. I may revisit, but I'm in with Buf for now. Edit: bailed and gratefully as Buffalo wins by one. :chuckle:

1-2

Chi @ KC Line: KC 9.5 Split: 66/44 Chi
Pick: Looks like last weeks surprise win over Oakland has people thinking they could repeat this week. Dalton lit up KC's secondary for a career high last week. Now Andy is playing great right now, but that has to worry you in Arrowhead. I'll take Chicago to exploit that enough to keep it closer.

KC continues to look like a team whose parts are greater than their sum. But that's good news for me this week. 2-2

Sea @ Cin Line: Cin 1.5 Split: 62/38 Cin
Pick: Is this belief in the Bengals or a general consensus that Seattle has come back to the pack? Okay, I'll keep riding that Bengal wagon. The problem with Seattle? Wilson is their top rusher. I don't think Cin is fragile and they're playing at home against an increasingly one dimensional (and unspectacular) Seahawks offense. Seattle's defense has picked it up, but that front from Cin isn't to be sneezed at either. Bengals.

Did what they needed to do. 3-2 And I'm turning the corner on a poor start.

Cle @ Bal Line: Bal 6.5 Split: 55/45 Bal
Pick: the money is thinking the line may be too fat, but the Ravens should win. I'll take the points and the Ravens. It's still Cleveland and they're on the road against a better team than the record indicates. Look for Joe and company to make a statement.

:mmph: Not the statement I anticipated. 3-3 and I'm back to even money.

SL @ GB Line: GB 9.5 Split: 56/44 GB
Pick: same sort of response. SL can rise up, but they haven't done so consistently and it's hard not to like the Pack at home. The Pack is dominating at home with around eleven in a row, I think. I like Rodgers and company by about two tds, so I'll take the action.

And Green Bay wins by? 2 tds, thank you kindly. 4-3

NO @ Phi Line: Phi 5.5 Split: 55/45 NO
Pick: people are excited by the Saints win over a game Dallas, but that was in the dome. Can they travel north with the same game plan? I’m thinking no. Philly, who once again could use the win, especially at home. If they can't beat the Saints there then they're in trouble and so is their coach. Now that's motivation for the old genius, eh?

That's the stuff, Chip. 5-3

Jac @ TB Line: TB 2.5 Split: 54/46 Jac
Pick: Another nervous money game. These are not being kind to my totals so far this year. :mmph: :think: Both teams give and take are anemic...I'll take Tampa at home to do just enough.

Which is what I got. 6-3

Arz @ Det Line: Arz 2.5 Split: 81/19
Pick: A slim line that doesn't inspire confidence, but the money loves it and can't get enough of the Cardinals on this one. Arizona is about the best pick-off team in the NFL. Det's offensive line is horrible. Arizona.

It's all over but the shouting. 7-3

NE @ Dal Line: NE 9.5 Split: 73/27 NE
Pick: Two big defenders return to Dallas and they'll need it. Brady's team is playing about as well as the old 16-0 team, offensively in terms of point production above the fold. I think the Pats pull away by the middle third to early fourth. I'll take New England to cover late.

As advertised. (Hey, it's NE up 27 - 6 with ten in the fourth. I'm calling it.) 8-3

Den @ Oak Line: Den 5.5 Split: 67/33 Den
Pick: Oakland was definitely a not ready for prime time glare last week. This week they're home for the visiting Broncos. Sadly, the two teams are about on par offensively, but Denver's defense is brutal. I'll take that defense to be the difference. Denver.

I called the defense to be the difference and they just picked off Oakland to extend the lead and cover with a 16-7 lead, with seven left in the 4th. 9-3


Pending...

SF @ Gia Line: Gia 7.5 Split: 64/36 Gia
Pick: the money feels reasonably comfortable with that line. Given Eli and company are averaging almost two tds more a game while that Giant's defense is giving up a td less that SF, I can understand why. At home? I'll take the G-men to get it done.

Pit @ SD Line: SD 3.5 Split: 59/41 SD
Pick: Remember when Monday night games were special? Me neither and this one doesn't look to be. The Chargers get TE Gates back to help balance out the offense. The Steelers get their wr back, but it really comes down to your confidence in Vick. An important game for both teams at 2-2...I'm going to take the Steelers for the upset here. :shocked:

 

[Town Heretic]

The Giants' defense let me down, but 9-4 isn't too bad on the week.

Now if the Steelers upset tomorrow it will be 10-4.

 

[Granite]

Anybody out there still convinced deflated footballs somehow cause greatness?

 

[Town Heretic]

Anybody out there still convinced deflated footballs somehow cause greatness?

Nah. But there's another question in that that's the real problem, does anyone think you cheat to gain a disadvantage?

And if you have a dynasty predicated upon three games won by fgs and arrived at much the same, you can't really blame people for wondering about the margins.

Looking at launching a power rating by mid season. As it stands now there are a lot of teams in a middling position to improve their lot, a few that obviously won't and a handful of favorites.

I have a rule of thumb scale that puts a solid, but not quite playoff ready squad at around twenty, playoff teams are usually 25 and up and the SB teams normally come in around 30 by the end.

Right now I'd rate New England first, with Green Bay a fg behind and Arizona a point back of that for the SB contender tier.

Right behind them are Denver and Atlanta, with serous offensive and defensive questions, respectively. If Peyton can get line protection and look anything like his healthy self from last year they're as likely to win the whole thing as anyone, but it's a real question now. Atlanta just doesn't have the defensive talent, but stands a punchers chance.

In the playoff caliber hunt but a td or more off the lead and in need of overall improvement: Cin, Indy, Buf, Phi, Pit, Gia, Dal.

Improvement dark horses but likely not going anywhere: SD, Ten, KC, Car, Min, Bal, Jets




In the middling/contention before its done category?

 

[GuySmiley]

Anybody out there still convinced deflated footballs somehow cause greatness?

That just makes Brady look extra stupid.

 

[patrick jane]

The Giants' defense let me down, but 9-4 isn't too bad on the week.

Now if the Steelers upset tomorrow it will be 10-4.

not bad at all !! are you ready for some football ?

 

[Town Heretic]

not bad at all !! are you ready for some football ?

Yeah. I can live with the Giants and Atlanta loss. Those were reasonable risks. Houston was a gamble on the margin, so no squealing. Baltimore. That one galls me. You get a career journeyman qb and he has a great game. It happens, but :IA:

The Steelers pick is a gamble, but if Vick holds up I think they're the better team and he looked good enough last outing. We'll see. I can live with nine or ten at this point in the season.

 

[patrick jane]

Yeah. I can live with the Giants and Atlanta loss. Those were reasonable risks. Houston was a gamble on the margin, so no squealing. Baltimore. That one galls me. You get a career journeyman qb and he has a great game. It happens, but :IA:

The Steelers pick is a gamble, but if Vick holds up I think they're the better team and he looked good enough last outing. We'll see. I can live with nine or ten at this point in the season.

Baseball starts early and will be ending or over by kick-off.

 

[Granite]

That just makes Brady look extra stupid.

...uh, what?

 

[kmoney]

Welp, I'm looking to next year already. Chiefs are 1-4 and Charles tore his ACL. Chiefs are toast. And it was a promising year to start. :sigh: Our schedule didn't do us any favors.

How did we blow that lead yesterday, :sozo2: :doh:

 

[Town Heretic]

Welp, I'm looking to next year already. Chiefs are 1-4 and Charles tore his ACL. Chiefs are toast. And it was a promising year to start. :sigh: Our schedule didn't do us any favors.

Tebow. Should have brought him in. You have a great backup under center. If you had a dominant tight end and a dominant defense you could scare people. You have a fine coach and enough talent to be within reach and challenging for the division with a couple of additions.

How did we blow that lead yesterday, :sozo2: :doh:

With aplomb?

 

[kmoney]

Tebow. Should have brought him in. You have a great backup under center. If you had a dominant tight end and a dominant defense you could scare people. You have a fine coach and enough talent to be within reach and challenging for the division with a couple of additions.

Tebow to do what?
Our TE isn't the problem. Kelce is one of the better ones. Our defense is supposed to be pretty good but I'm not sure of our stats so far this year. We should be 3-2 so far, by beating Denver and Chicago.

With aplomb?

:mmph:

 

[Town Heretic]

Tebow to do what?

Run your offense and give you a chance as a plus one on your running game.

People always go on about his stats but the truth is they look an awful lot like Bradshaw's if you go back and lay them out. And like Terry he has a knack for the big play. He also looked better, mechanically, this year. And he's a spark, a winner. All those things should have had someone take him under center. I'll never understand him being out of the league. I suppose it goes to the old herd/line mentality. Too bad.

Chuck Knoll wouldn't have been afraid to use him.

Our TE isn't the problem. Kelce is one of the better ones.

He's not dominant. If you have a qb who is more comfortable with the pass as run play and lack big game wrs then you have to have a top tier run game and a great TE, a-la Gonzales or Gronk or the ol Sharpe. Your guy would be fine with better wrs.

Our defense is supposed to be pretty good but I'm not sure of our stats so far this year.

I think only Jacksonville and Tampa have given up more points (you're tied for 3rd worst with New Orleans). You're 7th from last in yards allowed per game, tied for 4th...in penalties.

But you're better than that when your offense is giving you something.

We should be 3-2 so far, by beating Denver and Chicago.

Yes, if you'd beaten teams you didn't you'd be better than you aren't.

Or something. lain:

:mmph:

Too plomby for ya?

 

[drbrumley]

11-2 going into tonight. Come on San Diego

 

[Nick M]

People always go on about his stats but the truth is they look an awful lot like Bradshaw's if you go back and lay them out. And like Terry he has a knack for the big play. He also looked better, mechanically, this year.

Bradshaw is Jay Cutler/Jeff George with Hall of Fame wide receivers. Tebow's passing mechanics are just terrible. Bradshaw was a bonehead. Not really comparable at all.

 

[GuySmiley]

...uh, what?

If cheating apparently didn't give him any advantage, it was more stupid to cheat. He did it for nothing.

 

[tetelestai]

Wow!!!!......what a finish.

Mike Tomlin is now 10-2 on MNF.

Most MNF Wins:

#1) 49'ers (47 wins)

#2 Tie) Steelers & Cowboys (43 wins)

Highest Winning Percentage MNF:

.733 - Seahawks (22-8)

.653 - 49'ers (47-25)

.642 - Steelers (43-24)

 

[Town Heretic]

Wow!!!!......what a finish.

Worked for me. :reals: And I'm 10-4 on the week.

 

[Granite]

If cheating apparently didn't give him any advantage, it was more stupid to cheat. He did it for nothing.

Oh, gotcha. Agreed. But given the lack of any evidence and the apparent revenge/envy/jealousy that motivated the entire kerfuffle I'm pretty comfortable saying there was nothing to this story at all.

As for the Steelers: A team should know when their season's over.:sozo2:

 

[tetelestai]

As for the Steelers: A team should know when their season's over.:sozo2:

Was it me, or did Mike Vick do his Tim Tebow impersonation last night?

Vick played terrible the whole game, then made a big play, and then found a way to win the game.