Bernie Sanders has won the popular vote in Iowa (albeit marginally losing the delegate count). He won New Hampshire outright. And he is projected to win Nevada by 20 points or more. Before Nevada, polling consistently showed him neck and neck with Joe Biden. With the momentum from his three state winning streak, he's probably going to win South Carolina as well.
If he wins all four states, an overwhelming Super Tuesday victory is almost assured. And if that happens, it's game over. Bernie Sanders is going to become the democratic nominee.
Nate Silver has Bernie Sanders at a 47% chance to win the democratic nomination outright.
Donald Trump's days in office are numbered.
For you Trumpists who don't remember why Donald Trump won in 2016, let me remind you. He didn't win because he played to the Republican base. If anything, he went against Republican orthodoxy. He promised universal healthcare coverage. Once he got in office, he raised the idea of just putting everyone on Medicare (his cabinet quickly talked him out of that). He promised that he wouldn't cut social security, medicare and Medicaid. He promised a trillion dollar infrastructure bill. He promised to end the disastrous trade deals (read outsourcing bills) that have hollowed out the middle of the country. He promised to end the disastrous regime change wars overseas.
Donald Trump won because he won the Rust Belt by a slim margin by getting former two times Obama voters to vote for him.
And he has broken almost every single promise that he made.
When Bernie Sanders campaigns in the Rust Belt, he is going to promise those out of work coal minors and factory workers medicare for all, a federal job guarantee, a $15 minimum wage. And he's going to be tougher on trade than Donald Trump is.
Donald Trump won because he ran as a populist and promised Rust Belt voters hope and change. Hillary Clinton did not.
He is going to get crushed by an actual populist.
Those out of work coal miners and factory workers voted for hope and change in 2008. They voted for it again in 2016. And they'll do it again in 2020.
Donald Trump is probably going to win the hardcore Republican states. I don't doubt that. But he's going to lose the Rust Belt. He'll probably even lose Texas. And he'll lose the race.
#Bernie2020
#NotMeUs