Trump Makes His Way Back to the Lead in Poll

[jgarden]

Trump Makes His Way Back to the Lead in Poll

If Trump had just gone home after his visit to Mexico and not "doubled down" on his immigration threats during his evening speech, he could have created a possible avenue to the White House.

"The Donald," however, just can't help himself by insisting that he must always have the last word on this matter - despite the fact that the majority of Americans are in favor of a defined path to citizenship, short of deporting 11+ million "illegals!"

All Trump succeeded in doing was to further alienate the Hispanic American vote his campaign was desperately trying to attract and reinforce the perception among moderates and independents that he is not "presidential" material!

 

[jgarden]

Donald Trump can win the White House if he has “one sane month” on the campaign trail
August 23, 2016.

Peter Hart, a Democrat and one of the country’s most respected pollsters, admitted on Friday that Donald Trump can win the White House if he has “one sane month” on the campaign trail.

After conducting a focus group of Wisconsin voters last night for the University of Pennsylvania’s Annenberg Public Policy Center, Hart appeared on MSNBC’s “MTP Daily” and said voters “don’t trust Clinton to give them an honest answer and they don’t trust Trump to be a safe leader.”

..... “I say that as a Democratic pollster,” Hart said, adding that though voters think Trump is “crazy” and “off the board,” if “he had a sane month, which is probably impossible, he would get a full listen from these voters. They still want change and they’re unhappy with what’s going on.”

Hart said voters cannot relate to Clinton and “sense that there is a glass curtain. They can’t reach her. They feel that there is a mask. They want to be able to feel like they know her, and they don’t.”

Voters in Hart’s focus group reportedly compared Clinton to a step-mother and said her dishonesty made their “blood boil.” But voters also reportedly compared Trump to the “drunk uncle”.....

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presi...llster-trump-can-win-election-one-sane-month/

If the conservatives had supported any of the other major GOP presidential candidates in the primaries, the White House would now be theirs for the taking.

If "the Donald" could only stay "on script" between now and the end of the campaign, despite his many mistakes, he could still win the election!

If Trump's children were to lock him in a closet and provide a stand-in who conducted himself in a "sane" manner - their father's chances would vastly improve!

Both candidates have displayed flaws that would have normally doomed their chances, and yet neither appears to have learned from their mistakes!

Trump cannot remain "sane" and "on script" for a month, his children don't have the courage to lock him up, and there are no guarantees that Clinton has more "skeletons in her closet" - so the White House will probably go to Hillary as the least "objectionable" candidate.

 

[Town Heretic]

I'd like to rip her face right off her head.

Which is one reason I wouldn't expect you to be reasoned when it comes to analysis of her or the election.

So Reuters had the narrowest Clinton lead last week and now it's flipped into a narrow Trump lead. Looks like Reuters, which had the narrowest Clinton lead, has switched that one around this week. I already noted one of the more astute and accurate pollsters. Here's a glance at the rest:

[h=3]Polling Data[/h]

Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Clinton (D)	Trump (R)	Spread
RCP Average	8/22 - 9/1	--	--	46.1	42.0	Clinton +4.1
IBD/TIPP	8/26 - 9/1	861 LV	3.4	44	43	Clinton +1
FOX News	8/28 - 8/30	1011 RV	3.0	48	42	Clinton +6
LA Times/USC	8/26 - 9/1	2576 LV	4.5	43	44	Trump +1
Reuters/Ipsos	8/25 - 8/29	1404 LV	3.0	40	39	Clinton +1
Economist/YouGov	8/27 - 8/29	1119 RV	4.0	47	42	Clinton +5
PPP (D)	8/26 - 8/28	881 LV	3.3	48	43	Clinton +5
USA Today/Suffolk	8/24 - 8/29	1000 LV	3.0	48	41	Clinton +7
Monmouth	8/25 - 8/28	689 LV	3.7	49	42	Clinton +7
NBC News/SM	8/22 - 8/28	24104 RV	1.0	48	42	Clinton +6

 

[Catholic Crusader]

REUTERS Fri Sep 2, 2016 5:55pm EDT
Trump catches up to Clinton, latest Reuters/Ipsos poll finds
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN1182PT

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has pulled into an effective tie with Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, erasing a substantial deficit as he consolidated support among his party’s likely voters in recent weeks, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos national tracking poll released Friday.

The poll showed 40 percent of likely voters supporting Trump and 39 percent backing Clinton for the week of Aug. 26 to Sept. 1. Clinton's support has dropped steadily in the weekly tracking poll since Aug. 25, eliminating what had been a eight-point lead for her.

Trump's gains came as Republican support for their party’s candidate jumped by six percentage points over the past two weeks, to about 78 percent. That is still below the 85 percent support Republican nominee Mitt Romney enjoyed in the summer of 2012, but the improvement helps explain Trump’s rise in the poll.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll is conducted online in English in all 50 states. The latest poll surveyed 1,804 likely voters over the course of the week; it had a credibility interval, a measure of accuracy, of three percent......(SNIP)

 

[Catholic Crusader]

Trending: https://twitter.com/hashtag/clintonsmemory?f=tweets&vertical=default&src=hash

 

[ok doser]

What would it take for you to take Trump seriously?

well, consider that he fell for bammy hook line and sinker back in 08 and work from there

:think:

trump would have to be black, inexperienced, unqualified and make him feel all warm and fuzzy inside, talking about "hope and change" while secretly mocking tards like town for the fools they are

 

[ok doser]

All Trump succeeded in doing was to further alienate the Hispanic American vote ...

i don't believe trump was angling for the illegal immigrant vote :idunno:

 

[Catholic Crusader]

i don't believe trump was angling for the illegal immigrant vote :idunno:

Hillary is

 

[Town Heretic]

CC neg repped me for posting polling data then called me an idiot, which is like having your personal hygiene critiqued by the French.

Sort of underscores my point about the problem of people who feel their way through politics.

 

[Catholic Crusader]

Why the Polls Are Tightening Up
by MICHAEL BARONE September 9, 2016
"Trump is gaining."
Hillary Clinton & Donald Trump – Tighter Race | National Review


FAU Poll Finds Trump Edging Out Clinton in Florida
Republican nominee Donald Trump leads Democrat Hillary Clinton in Florida 43 to 41 percent, with Libertarian Gary Johnson taking 8 percent, Green Party candidate Jill Stein 2 percent and 5 percent undecided.
FAU Poll Finds Trump Edging Out Clinton in Florida : Florida Atlantic University

 

[Town Heretic]

Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight has the likely winner as Clinton with a 70/30 split in chance, with Hillary trending marginally up in the past seven days and Trump trending down.

The electoral vote:
Clinton: 310
Trump: 227

The popular vote:
Clinton: 45.7
Trump: 43.1
Johnson: 8.9

 

[patrick jane]

Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight has the likely winner as Clinton with a 70/30 split in chance, with Hillary trending marginally up in the past seven days and Trump trending down.

The electoral vote:
Clinton: 310 254
Trump: 227 283

The popular vote:
Clinton: 40.7
Trump: 48.1
Johnson: 8.9

I like what I see

 

[Sitamun]

I like what I see

Can you explain or show where you got those numbers, since you clearly didn't get them from fivethirtyeight.com?

 

[Town Heretic]

I like what I see

I'd appreciate it if you didn't alter my material and still attribute it to me. Especially if you're not using the same source and the information isn't accurately relating the source I utilized (and have linked to more than once).

Looks like they've updated the site since my post.

Now it's 68.6 to 31.4 Clinton winning over Trump.

FiveThirtyEight Projected Electoral votes

Hillary Clinton: 307.2

Donald Trump: 230.2

Gary Johnson: 0.5


Popular vote

Hillary Clinton: 46.6%

Donald Trump: 43.2%

Gary Johnson: 8.8

 

[Catholic Crusader]

I like what I see

Trump Up By Three In New National Poll
Alex Pfeiffer - 09/12/2016
http://dailycaller.com/2016/09/12/trump-up-by-three-in-new-national-poll/

A new national poll from UPI shows Donald Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton by about three points as the Republican nominee continues to build momentum.

Trump is ahead with 48.7 percent, and Clinton follows with 45.8 percent. The poll does not include Libertarian Gary Johnson or the Green Party’s Jill Stein. Five percent of poll respondents, however, said they supported “others.”

The UPI poll is a daily online tracking survey that polls nearly 200 people every day. This poll was conducted online, where Trump tends to perform better as some voters are hesitant to say they support him. It was conducted between Sept. 5 and Sept. 11 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The Republican nominee is still down overall nationally. The most recent RealClearPolitics polling average puts Clinton ahead by 2.2 percent, she was ahead on the RCP average by about five points two weeks.

 

[ok doser]

upi, i've heard of


538? :idunno:

 

[Town Heretic]

Meanwhile, though it's clear Trump has made inroads in this latest cycle:

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Clinton (D)	Trump (R)	Spread
RCP Average	8/26 - 9/12	--	--	45.8	43.4	Clinton +2.4
LA Times/USC Tracking	9/6 - 9/12	2665 LV	4.5	43	46	Trump +3
NBC News/SM	9/5 - 9/11	16220 RV	1.1	48	44	Clinton +4
ABC News/Wash Post	9/5 - 9/8	642 LV	4.5	51	43	Clinton +8
Economist/YouGov	9/4 - 9/6	955 RV	4.7	44	42	Clinton +2
Reuters/Ipsos	9/1 - 9/5	1084 LV	3.5	40	38	Clinton +2
CNN/ORC	9/1 - 9/4	786 LV	3.5	48	49	Trump +1
IBD/TIPP	8/26 - 9/1	861 LV	3.4	44	43	Clinton +1
FOX News	8/28 - 8/30	1011 RV	3.0	48	42	Clinton +6

All General Election: Trump vs. Clinton Polling Data​

 

[ok doser]

Trump Up By Three In New National Poll
Alex Pfeiffer - 09/12/2016
http://dailycaller.com/2016/09/12/trump-up-by-three-in-new-national-poll/

A new national poll from UPI shows Donald Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton by about three points as the Republican nominee continues to build momentum.

Trump is ahead with 48.7 percent, and Clinton follows with 45.8 percent. The poll does not include Libertarian Gary Johnson or the Green Party’s Jill Stein. Five percent of poll respondents, however, said they supported “others.”

The UPI poll is a daily online tracking survey that polls nearly 200 people every day. This poll was conducted online, where Trump tends to perform better as some voters are hesitant to say they support him. It was conducted between Sept. 5 and Sept. 11 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The Republican nominee is still down overall nationally. The most recent RealClearPolitics polling average puts Clinton ahead by 2.2 percent, she was ahead on the RCP average by about five points two weeks.

:banana:

 

[Catholic Crusader]

:banana:

:banana: :banana: :banana: Banana Trinity

 

[jgarden]

Trump Makes His Way Back to the Lead in Poll

As we all learned in the Bush/Gore 2000 Election, the popular vote counts for nothing if the candidate doesn't perform well in the key swing states!