Thank you, Green Bay! Another 10-6 week to wrap up this year's competition.
So, now we're looking toward the Wild Card round and match ups.
Mia @ Pit: No real mystery here. The line is opening at around -10 for the Steelers. There will be an understandable rush to lay these points given the obliteration of the Fins by New England this week. Remember my old 0-30 pt ranking scale? If you do you might recall my noting how since Marino Miami tends to begin and end a season at the respectable, but limited 20 mark after looking like a playoff team around the middle. That's exactly what happened and where they are right now, though given the overall lack of dominant teams this year that run got them a playoff ticket.
The Fins' defense is 30th against the rush and 15th against the pass. They'll have to contend with a Steelers team that is 4th in passing and 14th in rushing. Meaning Pittsburgh should be able to use their balance to move effectively against Miami. Miami's offense relies on the run. Their passing game is meant to compliment that rushing game. Shut it down and Moore simply isn't good enough to beat you with the weapons on hand. To have success offensively they must run the ball effectively. Despite Moore's decent showing against that stout Pats defense, their inability to rush effectively against the 3rd rated rushing defense put too much pressure on Moore and led to a costly pick. The Steelers are a little better than middle of the pack when it comes to stopping the run, so Miami will be able to use that to move the ball and keep Ben off the field more readily than against the Pats.
All and all Miami is fighting the spread with not even a punchers chance to win. The only way they can hope for more is if their offense clicks in the running game, allowing an able Moore to play to his strengths and keep the Steelers off balance and that offense off the field, a-la the old Giants vs Bills game plan. Realistically, it's all about the spread, not the outcome. If Miami plays as well as they can it's a six point game. Otherwise, it gets ugly early and the Fins aren't built for catch up ball. 55% of the money is on the Steelers making the line.
Winner: Pittsburgh
Most likely statistical outcome: 6 to 9 pts, so 21-26 to 23-32
Oakland @ Houston: the Texans are a 3.5 favorite in a game only a mother could love to bet on. A headless Raiders against the weakest playoff entry in recent memory. I'll forgo analysis on statistical trends. This is a dog. I have Houston limping to a 2 pt victory on the strength of their defense.
Winner: Houston
Most likely statistical outcome: God knows.
Detroit @ Seattle: the Seahawks are a 7.5 favorite entering their WC contest with a fading Lions club. On the averages they're a 10 pt dog, so the 7.5 isn't a stretch. Seattle plays like a different team at home and Detroit has been struggling for consistency of late.
Winner: Seahawks
Most likely statistical outcome: 18-27 to 17-29
Giants @ Green Bay: the line is Pack and 4, which is surprising, but likely a nod to two things: the G-men's outstanding defensive play and Eli's habit of coming to life in the post season. On paper this is an easy enough cover. The differential is nearly two tds.
Green Bay brings the 7th most potent aerial attack in the NFL and, despite losing Eddie Lacy at RB, manage over a hundred yards rushing as well (20th). On defense the Pack is less impressive, ranking 31st in yards allowed through the air while fielding a stout 8th rated defense against the rush. That's likely in the troubling mix with Vegas, as the Giants don't run well to begin with and the secondary of GB is inviting that Eli resurgence I noted...
The Giants are 3rd best at stopping the run, but a less than impressive 24th against the pass.
Then there's red zone defense. The Giants are 2nd best at denying pts to opponents, trailing only New England in that particular. Green Bay? 21st.
Winner: If there's an upset in the WC round it's likely found here or with Houston. The money is better here.
Likely statistical outcome: Green Bay and 5 ish. Something like 23-28 to 15-29 at the top end, but there's a significant statistical chance of an upset here and if I was going to take a chance it would be with this game, looking for the upset.
