NFL 2014

[shagster01]

11. Buf @ Den: a makes me nervous game, mostly because of the 9.5 line. Buffalo has a terrific defense. Top five against the run and top ten against the pass. Denver needs balance leaning toward the pass, which seems like a solid way to win what should be a tougher game than most are crediting. The action is running a confident 66/44 for Denver and the points...too rich for my blood. I like the way the Broncos are playing, especially given they'll likely have to win on the road come playoff time, but I'm not comfortable going over eight. I'll take the upset on points here.

I'm going to this game tomorrow. I usually go to 4 or 5 Broncos games a year, but this is my first and probably only one this season.

Buffalo has a great D-line, but I don't think their offense will do much against Denver's D. As good as the Bills Defense is, I don't think they can keep the score low enough to win. They'll probably have to hold Denver to less than 20, which rarely ever happens.

 

[Town Heretic]

I'm going to this game tomorrow. I usually go to 4 or 5 Broncos games a year, but this is my first and probably only one this season.

Buffalo has a great D-line, but I don't think their offense will do much against Denver's D. As good as the Bills Defense is, I don't think they can keep the score low enough to win. They'll probably have to hold Denver to less than 20, which rarely ever happens.

Denver is playing a different game now and one they should stick with. I have it Denver 28 to Buffalo's 20.

 

[shagster01]

Denver is playing a different game now and one they should stick with. I have it Denver 28 to Buffalo's 20.

We'll see. Denver might have to resort back to the pass a little against this defense. I hope CJ Anderson can continue to go off though.

 

[Town Heretic]

We'll see. Denver might have to resort back to the pass a little against this defense. I hope CJ Anderson can continue to go off though.

They'll definitely tweak toward the pass, given that stout front, but I think the best long term success game plan is going to be real balance.

 

[Town Heretic]

Week 14

1. Dal @ Chi: Dallas is, for the moment, on the outside of the playoff bubble looking in and needs to win this one. The 5-7 Bears are in freefall and whispers of luring a certain Jet coach to take over defensive duties doesn't smack of a team trying to rally. The line is Dallas by 3.5 and the action is 67/33 in favor. I like the Cowboys by four, around 26-22.

1-0 Bam, though the score surprised me.

2. Pit @ Cin: the Bengals have only lost one at home this year and the stumbling Steelers are a .500 road team. The line has Cin a 3.5 favorite (a theme this week?) but the action is 57/43 in favor of an upset. :think: Pittsburgh needs to run effectively to have a chance. That's the cats weakness (25th). I'll take the three win team over up and down and at home. Give me the Bengals.

1-1 :mmph: Darn yo-yo teams.

3. Ind @ Cle: so, how long before we learn if Johnny can read (defenses, that is)? Maybe this week as the heavily outclassed Browns welcome one of the more potent offenses going. The line is a scant 3.5 (though this time with the visitor) and the action is running 84/16 in favor of seeing Johnny by halftime and a loss by the end of the fourth.
I'll take the Colts to cover and by as much as a td.

1-2 :mmph: And the Colts are lucky they didn't lose altogether. Doesn't bode well for the playoffs.

4. TB @ Det: the Lions are a hefty 9.5 favorite, with the action concurring by 67/33. . . that's a big line. I like Detroit by two tds or better so I'm not grousing. Tampa has one of the leagues worst running games and Detroit the best run stopper, leaving the Bucs fate resting on its 18th ranked pass attack...against Detroit's 12th rated defense in that particular. A long flight home. Give me the Lions.

2-2 And back on track.

5. Gia @ Ten: reeling from the one point loss I called, the G-men are in trouble of the sort only the Titans could help. Favored by .5 on the road I'll give Eli and company the nod, as will a 73/27 action split.

3-2

6. SL @ Was: funny how a game I'd have shuddered at a few weeks ago is now intriguing. The line is SL by 2.5 and the action runs 81/19 with it...that small a line is hard to resist, though Colt makes me jittery. My model says by nine, so okay.

4-2 And even more of a drubbing than the model indicated.

7. Bal @ Mia: first three star game. The Ravens are a 2.5 favorite. The action runs 57/43. I'm less confident, but have it a fg win one way or another...I have more confidence in the overall from Baltimore so I'll nod in their direction. Both teams are run first, in terms of productivity, but Miami is an anemic 21st against the run and Baltimore is 4th. Look for a relatively low scoring affair.

5-2 Either Miami is returning to that middlin, luke warm meh that I noted early in the season tends to be the case by the end, or Baltimore is course correcting. Either way impacts the playoffs.

8. Jets @ Min: ohboy...a half star game...line, Min a 5.5 favorite with 73/27 favorable action. Sure.

6-2

9. Car @ NO: the Panthers have dropped seven straight and they're still in the hunt for their division. lain: The Saints won their last meeting by 18 @ Carolina and are favored at home by 9.5 with the action liking the line 63/37. Hard to fight that one and I'll take the Saints.

6-3 :mmph: Absurd that the Saints have lost the way they have this year at home. Inexcusable and puzzling given the talent level.

10. Hou @ Jac: the Jags come off a mild upset of the spiraling Giants to take on the favored Texans as a 4.5 dog. The action has it 86/14 riding the Houston wagon out with a victory. The Texans have made their year off weaker teams so this one should be another in the win column and by that margin or considerably more.

7-3 About as expected.

11. Buf @ Den: a makes me nervous game, mostly because of the 9.5 line. Buffalo has a terrific defense. Top five against the run and top ten against the pass. Denver needs balance leaning toward the pass, which seems like a solid way to win what should be a tougher game than most are crediting. The action is running a confident 66/44 for Denver and the points...too rich for my blood. I like the way the Broncos are playing, especially given they'll likely have to win on the road come playoff time, but I'm not comfortable going over eight. I'll take the upset on points here.

8-3 Took a late rally, but there you go.

12. KC @ Arz: looks like what everyone thinks it should be. If Palmer were under center I'd be a nervous KC fan. Even so the Cardinals are a slim, pick'em half point favorite over the Chiefs. The action is split nearly even, with 51/49 leaning toward the not much of an upset. Both teams have gone from a series of wins to a two game losing streak, but I'm more concerned about the Cardinals collapse against woeful Atlanta than I am the Chiefs coming up short against Denver, especially with Charles knee feeling better this week. I like the Chiefs by two to seven, so I'll go against that marginal line/action.

8-4 :mmph: So either there's life left in Arizona after Palmer or KC is starting to come unglued.

13. SF @ Oak: the Niners lost a meaningful game against their arch rivals last week while Oakland was obliterated by SL. A 7.5 line in favor of SF would be insulting if they weren't playing about as out of sync on offense as they have since Harbaugh took over. Time to course correct. The action is 80/20 that happens...I'm not betting against it.

8-5 :mmph: It isn't over yet, but Harbaugh by and large seems to be with this embarrassing loss.

14. Sea @ Phi: game of the week. Philadelphia is a home favorite by a meager 1.5 points. The action says it might be an upset, running 53/47 toward Seattle. This is a hard one. The Eagles allow a little over 5 more points on defense but average six more than Seattle...and it's at Philly. I like the Eagles to win a very close and hard fought game, covering the spread.

8-6 :mmph: another let down, though not that surprising...not like the Colts, Niners or Steelers, if for different reasons. Only the Pats and Packers can salvage a disappointing week of prognostication.

15. NE @ SD: jittery game and the second best match up on the board. So, the Pats looked mortal in their loss to GB, a team without much of a defense and SD won a dig deep road game against a tough Ravens squad, so don't overlook this one just yet. The line is New England by 3.5 and the action likes it 75/25. . . but San Diego is 5-1 at home and the Pats are a less than convincing 3-3 as a road team so far. I'm looking for NE to use this as a bounce back and I'll take them, but don't be surprised if it doesn't happen.

16. Atl @ GB: so...the line is GB 11.5 and the action 70/30 in support of the line...which you know I hate. But...okay, I'm caving. I'll sit and sweat out the points.

:e4e:

 

[Daniel1611]

AFC North is up for grabs. Here we go Stillers!

 

[tetelestai]

It isn't over yet, but Harbaugh by and large seems to be with this embarrassing loss.

I don't understand what the deal is with Harbaugh and the owner of the 49'ers.

All Harbaugh did was take the 49'ers to three straight NFC Championship Games, including one Super Bowl in his three years as coach.

Yet, for some reason, the owner can't wait to get rid of him. The loss to the Raiders may be just what the owner was wishing for.

 

[Town Heretic]

I don't understand what the deal is with Harbaugh and the owner of the 49'ers.

All Harbaugh did was take the 49'ers to three straight NFC Championship Games, including one Super Bowl in his three years as coach.

Yet, for some reason, the owner can't wait to get rid of him. The loss to the Raiders may be just what the owner was wishing for.

I think his personality wears people out up close. And this team doesn't seem to be rallying for him, does it...maybe he should consider college. By the time people get filled to the brim they'r gone and the next crew is ripe for it.

 

[Caledvwlch]

I didn't watch any football yesterday. :allsmile:

 

[Town Heretic]

I didn't watch any football yesterday. :allsmile:

Ah, dude...not my particular area of law, but I think you might have just lost your citizenship. :think:

 

[Caledvwlch]

Ah, dude...not my particular area of law, but I think you might have just lost your citizenship. :think:

That's fair. Hey at least I get all kinds of free stuff from hard-working white people now. :up:

 

[Town Heretic]

That's fair. Hey at least I get all kinds of free stuff from hard-working white people now. :up:

:think: They still make those? (the wife says "Yes, in China"). lain:

 

[Caledvwlch]

:think: They still make those? (the wife says "Yes, in China"). lain:

:chuckle: Obviously.

 

[Town Heretic]

Thoughts on the week in NFL:

Too early to call a top ten with GB yet to play, but Seattle has entered the serious SB contention phase, moving into NE and GB's power ranking strata, with the reconstituted approach of Denver not far back and gaining.

Speaking of Denver and short term memories, so Manning's streak ends, he's had back to back so-so games and they aren't on pace to break records so now the "he's noticably older/is this the end?" birds are chirping. Same birds were pecking a hole to drop Brady in a while back...amazing how that works. I'm actually happy to see a running game there to take pressure off Peyton. Maybe he'll get an Elway ending to his career after all, because if last year proved anything (beyond the need for stout offensive line play) it's that Denver needs to run the ball to keep their defense fresh and let Peyton pick his shots.

Cleveland. It's time. Actually, it's a game too far to hold Johnny back. If he's in the game Sunday Luck doesn't pull a win out of a winded but game Browns defense. No question about it.

The Rams are coming.

Tennessee is awful, as is TB, Washington, Jacksonville and Oakland (yeah, but the Niners aren't that good either). In power ranking strata where a 30 up is SB contention and a 25 to 30 is a strong playoff contender with 20 being a solid but uninspired team, these teams are under 9, with Oakland being the 9 and the Titans being, oh, a 5.

Outside of St. Louis, no one really wants to deal with Pittsburgh. They're the NFL box of chocolates.

New Orleans is in a free fall that can't rationally be accounted for...can Sproles have been that big a difference? Maybe so.

If Houston can settle the qb position and get Clowney on the field they'll be in the hunt next year.

KC needs to upgrade its offensive talent and Arizona is good enough to scratch out a win with a back up under center. Not bad.

 

[The Berean]

I don't understand what the deal is with Harbaugh and the owner of the 49'ers.

All Harbaugh did was take the 49'ers to three straight NFC Championship Games, including one Super Bowl in his three years as coach.

Yet, for some reason, the owner can't wait to get rid of him. The loss to the Raiders may be just what the owner was wishing for.

The 49ers major problem is that Colin Kaepernick is simply NOT an elite NFL QB. I don't understand why teams are so in love with "athletic" QB's? History has shown time and time again that "athletic" QB's tend to be poor passers.

 

[Town Heretic]

The 49ers major problem is that Colin Kaepernick is simply NOT an elite NFL QB.

I agree with Dilfer that he could develop into one though and if you went back to transitioning through pistol like set ups and played to his strengths instead of what you should be working him toward he'd be a much, much more effective qb for the Niners, as he was early on.

I don't understand why teams are so in love with "athletic" QB's? History has shown time and time again that "athletic" QB's tend to be poor passers.

He's not really, just uncomfortable with certain aspects of the pocket position that he's just not as familiar with as many young qbs.

Last year he gave you over 3,000 yards in the air, over 500 yds rushing, 21 tds to 8 ints passing and 4 more on the ground. His rating was 91.6

This year he's not being utilized the same way and, awful as he has been in stretches, he's still at nearly 3,000 yds passing now, 16 tds to 10 ints and around 300 yds on the ground with a few games left. The team isn't performing well, especially the offensive line and they've pulled him out of his comfort zones. Add to that the not infrequent sophomore slump that is really just opposing defenses developing a book and you have the non crisis at qb that is CK.

Relax, Niner fans. Your problems are really more on the coaching side, for some reason, as in keeping yours. lain:

 

[beloved57]

Dont nobody give my Boys a chance tonight ! I hope they shock the world !

 

[Town Heretic]

Dont nobody give my Boys a chance tonight ! I hope they shock the world !

Though to be honest they could do that just by not getting completely blown off the field...the cold, cold field of broken dreams. lain:

 

[tetelestai]

Outside of St. Louis, no one really wants to deal with Pittsburgh.

I've been following the Steelers since 1972, and this is by far the weirdest year.

They can beat any team in the league, and at the same time lose to any team in the league.

This is due to them having a prolific offense, and a very porous defense.

I would be much more optimistic if they had a really good defense, and an average offense.

If they somehow make it to the postseason, they are one of those teams you don't want to have to play.

The Steelers are 8-5. I wouldn't be surprised if they end up 11-5 or 8-8. Whatever you do, DO NOT wager on them.

 

[tetelestai]

The 49ers major problem is that Colin Kaepernick is simply NOT an elite NFL QB.

In hindsight, should the 49'ers have kept Alex Smith?