Donald Trump will WIN BIG!

ok doser

ok doser

lifeguard at the cement pond
WonderfulLordJesus said:
I've read a couple literature trilogies consisting of around 3,000 pages, complex verbiage, each in less than a month, and in spare time. If it's 36,000 emails over 10 years, that's a bit less than 10 emails a day. I get more than that, real email and spam, and could, easily, read it all, even respond to it, if I wished, every day, say analyze the points of all the emails and respond to them, and do so in an hour or two. A lot of people take care of their email in less than an hour, respond to around ten or more that may come in off hours. It sounds like your work experience must have been on the lighter side, as a matter of fact, in terms of what an executive deals with, every day.
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true dat - this was 1996-2004, nobody worked from home, and I was doing data analysis and writing reports most of my working day

so, 45 weeks (five weeks vacation, two weeks personal time) x 5 days a week = 225 working days a year x 10 years = 2225 days


:think:

hmmm - maybe you're right



i sure wouldn't want to tally up all the time i spent in meetings :dizzy:
 
WonderfulLordJesus

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ok doser said:
true dat - this was 1996-2004, nobody worked from home, and I was doing data analysis and writing reports most of my working day

so, 45 weeks (five weeks vacation, two weeks personal time) x 5 days a week = 225 working days a year x 10 years = 2225 days


:think:

hmmm - maybe you're right

i sure wouldn't want to tally up all the time i spent in meetings :dizzy:
Click to expand...

I think maybe I'm a sort of data compulsive, play with numbers and consider things people, probably in their right minds, don't even fool with. It would probably shock you the heap of things you've done, over time, may look at your own email over ten years and say, "You're kidding! I did all that?." You probably sell yourself short, in this regard. A few bricks a day, over ten years, would build quite the wall. And you're right to point out the numbers, that we don't do 365 day years, professionally, at least most people. If you're on the prolific side as a writer, you could probably write the likes of a short story, every day, with little motivation behind it. Some of these tools, eager to please the devil, for the baubles they get from Saks, probably work themselves to exhaustion some days, stirring the cauldron for Satan.
 
Town Heretic

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Also by Rasmussen, ranked among the least accurate in the last election prediction for the office, Romney to win. :plain:
 
Catholic Crusader

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Callers on Why They See A Trump Win
October 21, 2016
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2016/10/21/callers_on_why_they_see_a_trump_win



TrumpWinning.jpg
 
Town Heretic

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Electoral College Forecasts as of latest data (largely updated from the 21st through today).

Election Projection.com
Clinton: 351
Trump: 187

538
Clinton: 337
Trump: 199

Virginia Center for Politics:
Clinton: 352
Trump: 173

Associated Press
Clinton: 272
Trump: 179

Princeton Electoral Consortium
Clinton: 329
Trump: 180

CNN Electoral Map
Clinton: 307
Trump: 179

Cook Political Report Forecast
Clinton: 278
Trump: 179

Rothenberg & Gonzales
Clinton: 323
Trump: 193

NBC Battleground Map
Clinton: 287
Trump: 157

ABC
Clinton: 272
Trump: 197

Wash Post
Clinton: 317
Trump: 186

Fox
Clinton: 307
Trump: 181

NPR
Clinton: 272
Trump: 163

Link Source: 270 to Win
 
ok doser

ok doser

lifeguard at the cement pond
rasmussen:
Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Hillary Clinton has slipped one point ahead in the latest White House Watch survey.

The new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds Clinton with 43% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Donald Trump’s 42%.

 
Town Heretic

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Now I understand how Ras(Romney holds a slight edge)mussen ends up looking better than it should by election day. Hold the propaganda line as long as you can, encourage your base/attempt to discourage the opposition, then inch quickly toward the likelier outcome the closer it is to election day.
 
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An interesting article on Yahoo.com. I'd spoken to the way Rasmussen managed to buy high and sell low, while looking much better than they should at the wire. Here is a bit on the latest darling of the hopeful among the Trump campaign.

From that article:
Do a quick Google search and you will find scores of articles in which conservatives clung to the IBD poll showing Romney ahead in 2012 while other surveys showed the race trending inexorably to the incumbent president.

IBD also performed badly in 2008, suggesting Republican nominee John McCain had a large lead among younger voters. Obama won this group handily. As late as Nov. 2, 2008, IBD had Obama up just 2 points over McCain. He won by 7 points and carried 365 electoral votes, a landslide in the current highly partisan era...

In order for Trump to win he would have to run the table in swing states, including Nevada, Florida and North Carolina. He trails in all three. Even winning all those would put Trump at 266. He would then need to flip at least one state leaning heavily toward Clinton, such as Pennsylvania, Virginia or Colorado. (link)​
 
ok doser

ok doser

lifeguard at the cement pond
Town Heretic said:
Now I understand how Ras(Romney holds a slight edge)mussen ends up looking better than it should by election day. Hold the propaganda line as long as you can, encourage your base/attempt to discourage the opposition, then inch quickly toward the likelier outcome the closer it is to election day.
Click to expand...

an interesting accusation

and easy to prove


can you show that rasmussen did this in the past?
 
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ok doser said:
an interesting accusation

and easy to prove


can you show that rasmussen did this in the past?
Click to expand...
I've already noted that Rasmussen held out a thin Romney lead until very late in the game. Headline from Rasmussen Reports, Nov. 5, 2012

Going Out on a Limb: Romney Beats Obama, Handily

An article in the Times noted that in the 2012 election Rasmussen had the fourth worst average for error among 23 national pollsters.

From the article:

Our method of evaluating pollsters has typically involved looking at all the polls that a firm conducted over the final three weeks of the campaign, rather than its very last poll alone. The reason for this is that some polling firms may engage in “herding” toward the end of the campaign, changing their methods and assumptions such that their results are more in line with those of other polling firms.​

After taking this approach the following was noted:

Rasmussen Reports polls had a statistical bias toward Republicans, overestimating Mr. Romney’s performance by about four percentage points, on average."​

Adding:

the same was true in 2010 — Rasmussen Reports polls had a statistical bias toward Republicans, overestimating Mr. Romney’s performance by about four percentage points, on average. Polls by American Research Group and Mason-Dixon also largely missed the mark. Mason-Dixon might be given a pass since it has a decent track record over the longer term, while American Research Group has long been unreliable.​
 
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