Ratings are down 17.5% since 2015 at this point in the season.
Nothing was happening on the anthem front in 2015. So the only reason to go back that far is to make the decline more dramatic. Ratings went down in 2015 without anyone kneeling. Why? I'll come back to the likely culprits and the as likely misapprehension in a moment.
Viewership has been declining in most sports over the past few years and for a number of reasons. I'm not suggesting that the knee jerking of activists hasn't been felt, only that the impact is fairly marginal and the declines were happening without it to some extent, if to a likely lesser extent than has been reported. I'll come back to why this is in a moment. This season, so far, active viewing is down 7.5% from last year, though it has rebounded of late and part of the reason for even that dip was the lackluster first couple of weeks, when it was down nearly 13%.
I'll be curious to see what interest is like as the games start to really separate the playoff contenders, without last year's distraction and with the kneeling movement having lost novelty and the issue as a lightning rod drawing less real heat.
I don't know what you consider as freefall
A sharp, typically sudden statistical downturn. That's not what's happening here, where we've actually seen some rebound and where the overall decline precedes what some are attempting to call the effect. That sort of thing.
can you name any other two year period of time in NFL history when ratings took as deep a plunge as that?
Not that I can think of, though baseball has had worse. To begin with, there's a general downturn in just about every sport in terms of active viewing, as I noted. Millenials aren't as joined at the hip as we are when it comes to viewing habits. Well, at least not in the traditional approach. What do I mean and why is that important?
A few points:
1. Nielsen doesn't factor mobile devices, which over the same last few years has become a way a great many people keep track of games, especially the younger set.
2. Cord cutters have impacted ratings, especially of NFL Network or ESPN generated games.
3. On top of that potential for statistical misread you had the domestic violence black eye, followed by a serious concussion concern that became a topic of moment for fans and parents of potential fans/players, then the anthem controversy. That much negative press over a couple of years is going to have an impact, even if that's largely in the soft viewership. It's still an important demo.
An interesting side bar that moves us toward alternate viewing, the worst downturn year, last year, saw 5% more viewers, an actual increase, but the overall viewership was watching less of any particular game. Forbes, Sept. 27, 2017 It makes me wonder if the Red Zone was such a good idea for the NFL, getting viewers accustomed to watching here and there and skipping out on the commercials and down time.
Also, among those who still typically use tvs to watch the game, an aging demographic but one with teeth and numbers, viewership is actually up this year. It's down among younger viewers who (again) may be watching but less of any particular and using other means than television.
So there's some reason to suspect that if (and that will shortly be a "when" for the NFL, driven by owners) we count in the alternative viewers and means and understand the last two years as being a melting pot of things that drove a perception, everyone will come to understand the sky is by no reasonable stretch of the imagination beginning to fall. Is the traditional dominance of the NFL in traditionally measurable means done? Maybe, but that's a horse of a different color and another race to run.