ClimateSanity
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Do you know who the most accurate polling have been over the last few elections? Not the ones you listed....sorry pal
I will not vote for trump
- Thread starter chrysostom
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Do you know who the most accurate polling have been over the last few elections? Not the ones you listed....sorry pal
ClimateSanity
New member
Clue me in on who besides Hillary or trump has a chance of winning. Clue me in on how trump will do more evil to this country. I will wait.
Name who you're using and cite to data/authority that they're the leading pollsters in relation to results. Over how many elections? Which elections? You mixing in? I'm talking about calling the race for the White House.
So set them out, let's see it.
Here's fivethirtyeight on point in presidential elections since Silver started it in 08:
2008: correctly called the outcome in 49 of 50 states (Indiana being the lone mistake). The final called margin of victory for Obama was estimated at 6.1, which was lower than the 7.2 actual. Additionally, 538 correctly called every senate race.
2012: 538 correctly called the outcome of all 50 states plus the District of Columbia and correctly called 31 of 33 Senate races. Rasmussen, by way of contrast, missed on 6 swing states in the presidential cycle.
538 was off on the final popular vote tally by .3%
lain: To quote the poet, "Who you got?"
ok doser
lifeguard at the cement pond
vote trump to keep hillary out of the white house
vote for all the other republicans to control trump
ClimateSanity
New member
I'm talking about the last polls taken before a presidential election in 2004, 2008, and 2012. Of the pollsters putting out polls this past week, IBD-TIPP and Rasmussen had the average highest accuracy in those three elections if you only consider the last poll taken.Name who you're using and cite to data/authority that they're the leading pollsters in relation to results. Over how many elections? Which elections? You mixing in? I'm talking about calling the race for the White House.
So set them out, let's see it.
Here's fivethirtyeight on point in presidential elections since Silver started it in 08:
2008: correctly called the outcome in 49 of 50 states (Indiana being the lone mistake). The final called margin of victory for Obama was estimated at 6.1, which was lower than the 7.2 actual. Additionally, 538 correctly called every senate race.
2012: 538 correctly called the outcome of all 50 states plus the District of Columbia and correctly called 31 of 33 Senate races. Rasmussen, by way of contrast, missed on 6 swing states in the presidential cycle.
538 was off on the final popular vote tally by .3%
To quote the poet, "Who you got?"
ok doser
lifeguard at the cement pond
not worth arguing with him, cs
he's an amateur "statistician" with no understanding of the discipline
True. Some of the Polls are rigged so as to demoralize the voters.
ClimateSanity
New member
The progressive/ elitist/ establishment type (liberal is cliche and inaccurate) deliberately uses statistics to deceive. The global warming hoax is built upon such deceitful use of statistics.
ClimateSanity
New member
Most of the polls are. About three weeks before an election, the polls start slowly adjusting their methods to more accurately reflect reality. None of them want to lose credibility ....see the Zogby poll of 2012. That was the most inaccurate of them all and now they are out of the polling business.
ok doser
lifeguard at the cement pond
that's what the pros do :idunno:
that's what i got paid to do when i worked as a professional statistician! :banana:
"I will not vote for Trump", means I am willing to destroy the Supreme Court, the economy and the military and have my children and grandchildren - and everyone's else's too - grow up in a living hell because I'm a sissy who gets his feelings hurt when Trump says mean things. I am a selfish small little jerk who feels morally superior by destroying a nation to make my point.
you make me feel morally superior
What an absolutely ignorant picture, if you want to see a corrupt elitist individual that couldn't give a wit for anyone but, number one than look no further than the felon Hillary, who would sell her soul for a buck...probably already did. :down: very weak....
One of Hellary's policies will remove all salads from Whole Foods
It seems like cherry picking to produce a result. I noted Rasmussen's problem and both Ras and IBD's inconsistency over the past couple. 538 hasn't had that problem. No Romney in its wheelhouse. It will be interesting to see it all pan out. Adds some interest to a contest that would otherwise be less than compelling, to those of us who are unwilling to support either.
Not voting or 3rd ballot or write ins won't score points with God or your peace of mind. Trump is the ONLY candidate that is Pro Life, Pro conservative Supreme Court, Pro Military, good economic plans and Pro Constitution
ClimateSanity
New member
538 was not most accurate in 2004 2008 or 2012....IBD was. To me, the last poll taken is the one that counts if you want to know who the president will be. The ones taken all year round don't mean anything. What exactly was 538 consistent about?
ClimateSanity
New member
ibd