It is very probable, especially if nothing is done to stop it. Why is that so hard for you to believe?
COVID-19 Data Tracking
- Thread starter The Berean
- Start date
It is very probable, especially if nothing is done to stop it. Why is that so hard for you to believe?
ok doser
lifeguard at the cement pond
I'll be back
Italy
47,021 confirmed
4,032 deaths
11.6 % mortality
4.01 doctors per 1000
3.18 hospital beds per 1000
USA
14,354 confirmed
217 deaths
1.51% mortality
2.59 doctors per 1000
2.78 hospital beds per 1000 (South Korea 12.27)
This is the result when the medical system is overwhelmed and there aren't enough respirators to meet the needs - there are signs that America is reaching already approaching that critical point!
Italy also has more doctors and hospital beds per capita than the US!
https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/SH.MED.PHYS.ZS/rankings
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6
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The Berean
Well-known member
Ok, it's math time.
It's hard to believe because it's utter horse biskets. As of today at 4:65 PST there have been 1,195 confirmed cases in California according to the Los Angeles times. Newson made his statement yesterday that in 8 weeks (56 days) 56% of Californians can be infected. That 56% is 22,153,600 people. To go from 1,195 cases to over 22 million in 55 days would require 402,771 new infections EVERY SINGE DAY for 55 straight days.
(22,153,600-1,195) / 55 = 402,771
So did over 400,000 Californians get infected today? Every day that over 400,000 people do not get infected would mean that the there would have to be even more infections in the subsequent days to reach over 22 million in 55 days.
You continue to operate on the assumption that "confirmed" cases are the only cases that exist. That's where you're wrong. The virus has an incubation period of up to a week or so. People are contagious over the entire course of that incubation period without even knowing that they have it. This virus is flying under the radar, but you assume that isn't happening because those cases haven't been confirmed yet. Well most of the population hasn't been tested. Look how quickly this virus has spread all over the world. You just don't want to understand how prolifically a contagious virus can spread through a population with no immunity.
Arthur Brain
Well-known member
Absolutely. In the UK it's been advised that anyone with a cough, sore throat and fever should self isolate including mild cases. Many won't and while most cases probably aren't Covid-19, there'll have been plenty that are. There'll be a myriad cases of people with this thing that aren't on the stats.
The Berean
Well-known member
Then by all means tells us what is the true number? And you seem to think we are living through the Zombie apocalypse, that there are untold millions of infected people out there unreported.
I make no such assumptions, That is your erroneous opinion. The virus is most certainly NOT flying under the radus. Thati is just wrong. My entire state of California is essentially on lock down.
And more people will be infected but nowhere near the doomsayers say it will.
And you simple disregard the actual available data and apparently live in fear.
But in the end we will see who is right and who is wrong. If I am wrong then I will recant my previous position.
If that turns out to be true, it will only be because of these measures that are being taken to try to stop it. If preventative measures were not being taken, imagine how much worse it would be.
If you are wrong and we all listened to you, the consequences would be devastating.
The Berean
Well-known member
But of course it will. This gives the naysayers an out when their silly predictions are proven false. They will NEVER admit they were wrong in the first place. We saw a similar situation with the Y2K doomsday predictions.
"But our predictions didn't happen because everyone fixed their computer systems in time!"
The Berean
Well-known member
Have I told people not to take precautions? Have I told people to just go about their business like normal?
Arthur Brain
Well-known member
Common sense says that there are many people who aren't on the stats who are/have been infected with this. It doesn't mean it's an apocalypse but ironically, do the math.
Oh, so you support the California state governor's policies then?
The Berean
Well-known member
Of course there are always more actual infected than is reported. The moment data is posted it is obsolete since there are more people just getting tested which is why the data is constantly updated. But the doomsayers ARE SAYING it is practically an Apocalypse. As I stated before our governor says he believes over 22 million Californians will get infected in 55 days. That is absurd and irresponsible. The doomsayers are acting like this virus spreads like the virus in World War Z.
The Berean
Well-known member
The sheltering? Of course. It's the prudent action to take.
Arthur Brain
Well-known member
It's not an apocalypse but it's spreading fast enough and in such a way where countries are enforcing lockdown measures in order to try and contain it. It's a wake up call and a half...
Ah, okay. I thought you started this thread to complain about the actions being taken to slow the spread of the virus throughout your state, e.g.:
So you support the actions, but you reject the projections that are the basis for the actions that are being taken? Makes sense.
Physicians (per 1,000 people) - Country Ranking
Definition: Physicians include generalist and specialist medical practitioners.
Source: World Health Organization's Global Health Workforce Statistics, OECD, supplemented by country data.
Find indicator:
The United States ranks 52nd in terms of doctors per 1000 - if things become dire, would Americans swallow their pride and head to Cuba for medical care?
https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/ind...YS.ZS/rankings
Definition: Physicians include generalist and specialist medical practitioners.
Source: World Health Organization's Global Health Workforce Statistics, OECD, supplemented by country data.
Find indicator:
| 1 | Cuba | 8.19 | 2017 |
| 2 | Monaco | 6.56 | 2014 |
| 3 | San Marino | 6.15 | 2014 |
| 4 | Sweden | 5.40 | 2016 |
| 5 | Austria | 5.14 | 2016 |
| 6 | Georgia | 5.10 | 2015 |
| 7 | Uruguay | 5.05 | 2017 |
| 8 | Norway | 4.63 | 2017 |
| 9 | Greece | 4.59 | 2016 |
| 10 | Denmark | 4.46 | 2016 |
| 11 | Lithuania | 4.34 | 2016 |
| 12 | Czech Republic | 4.31 | 2016 |
| 13 | Switzerland | 4.24 | 2016 |
| 14 | Germany | 4.21 | 2016 |
| 15 | Italy | 4.09 | 2017 |
| 16 | Belarus | 4.08 | 2014 |
| 17 | Spain | 4.07 | 2016 |
| 18 | Russia | 4.01 | 2016 |
| 19 | Bulgaria | 3.99 | 2014 |
| 20 | Iceland | 3.97 | 2017 |
| 21 | Argentina | 3.96 | 2017 |
| 22 | Malta | 3.83 | 2015 |
| 23 | Finland | 3.81 | 2016 |
| 24 | Dem. People's Rep. Korea | 3.67 | 2017 |
| 25 | Australia | 3.59 | 2016 |
| 26 | Netherlands | 3.51 | 2016 |
| 27 | Estonia | 3.47 | 2016 |
| 28 | Azerbaijan | 3.45 | 2014 |
| 29 | Portugal | 3.34 | 2016 |
| 30 | Andorra | 3.33 | 2015 |
| 31 | Belgium | 3.32 | 2016 |
| 32 | Kazakhstan | 3.25 | 2014 |
| 33 | France | 3.23 | 2016 |
| 34 | Hungary | 3.23 | 2016 |
| 35 | Israel | 3.22 | 2016 |
| 36 | Moldova | 3.20 | 2015 |
| 37 | Latvia | 3.19 | 2016 |
| 38 | Serbia | 3.13 | 2016 |
| 39 | Ireland | 3.09 | 2017 |
| 40 | Luxembourg | 3.03 | 2017 |
| 41 | New Zealand | 3.03 | 2016 |
| 42 | Ukraine | 3.01 | 2014 |
| 43 | Croatia | 3.00 | 2016 |
| 44 | Slovenia | 3.00 | 2016 |
| 45 | Armenia | 2.90 | 2014 |
| 46 | Mongolia | 2.89 | 2016 |
| 47 | North Macedonia | 2.87 | 2015 |
| 48 | United Kingdom | 2.81 | 2017 |
| 49 | Antigua and Barbuda | 2.76 | 2017 |
| 50 | Trinidad and Tobago | 2.67 | 2015 |
| 51 | Canada | 2.61 | 2017 |
| 52 | United States | 2.59 | 2016 |
https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/ind...YS.ZS/rankings
The Berean
Well-known member
I agree with this.
The Berean
Well-known member
Some good info from a doctor and Stanford professor. I had a few of these questions myself.