City of Seattle to raise minimum wage to $15/hr

aCultureWarrior

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Economics has become one of my favorite interests recently. Does mimimum wage increase unemployment? It's a difficult question to answer.

Let's see, the current minimum wage in Washington State is $9.32 an hour. With a $5.68 an hour increase for each employee, where is the employer going to make up the difference in the profit that he's losing?

Will he cut the amount of employees that he's using?

Will he increase the cost of services, and thus turn people away because they choose not to pay that much for fast food (and thus cut back the amount of employees due to lack of business).

Will he automate if he can? (Many grocery stores use self check-out lines and thus cut back the amount of employees used).

Which do you think it will be?
 

The Berean

Well-known member
Let's see, the current minimum wage in Washington State is $9.32 an hour. With a $5.68 an hour increase for each employee, where is the employer going to make up the difference in the profit that he's losing?

Will he cut the amount of employees that he's using?

Will he increase the cost of services, and thus turn people away because they choose not to pay that much for fast food (and thus cut back the amount of employees due to lack of business).

Will he automate if he can? (Many grocery stores use self check-out lines and thus cut back the amount of employees used).

Which do you think it will be?
I have no idea how hundreds and hundreds of Seattle business will respond. I doubt all the businesses will all respond the same way. Even professional economists do not agree on this issue. The article I posted had the following.

This poses a conundrum. Why might the basic theory be wrong? That's a question that John Schmitt of the Center for Economic and Policy Research explores in this new paper (pdf). He runs through a slew of theories for why a modest minimum-wage hike might not affect employment levels much. Basically, there are a variety of ways that labor markets can respond — and they don't all involve more unemployment:

1) Employers can respond by cutting back on benefits or hours or training: Yes, a higher minimum wage means that companies have to pay their low-wage workers more. But that doesn't mean they have to hire fewer workers. Perhaps businesses adapt by cutting back on other things, like health-care benefits or hours. Schmitt notes, however, that there's little conclusive evidence that employers do this.

2) Employers can respond by cutting wages for other, higher-paid workers. One survey found that half of employers faced with a minimum-wage hike "would delay or limit pay raises/bonuses for more experienced employees." If that actually happens, then the minimum wage might help low-wage workers at the expense of better-paid workers. This could even boost GDP in the short run if poorer workers are more likely to spend the cash.

3) Companies can raise their prices in response. One obvious possibility is that firms with lots of low-wage workers — say, fast-food restaurants — simply pass along their extra costs to customers. One major literature review found that a 10 percent hike in the minimum wage leads, on average, to a 4 percent increase in prices at companies affected.

4) Companies can just settle for fewer profits. Another possibility is that companies just take the hit and accept lower profits rather than laying people off. Research on whether this happens is pretty inconclusive, however.
 

aCultureWarrior

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I have no idea how hundreds and hundreds of Seattle business will respond. I doubt all the businesses will all respond the same way. Even professional economists do not agree on this issue. The article I posted had the following.

This poses a conundrum. Why might the basic theory be wrong? That's a question that John Schmitt of the Center for Economic and


Thank you for using the propaganda spewed out by a member of a "progressive economic policy think tank".
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Economic_and_Policy_Research
 

Angel4Truth

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Well, then, I'll tell you, you can take my word for it, or you can check it out on Google Maps or similar, but there are no Walmarts in--, or particularly near--, Seattle. It's actually rather remarkable.

Not so remarkable. They are often on the outskirts of large cities.

Walmart Locations near Seattle and Tacoma

Renton Walmart Store
743 Rainier Avenue S
Renton, WA 98057
Phone: 425-227-0407
Hours: 7 a.m. – 11 p.m. everyday

Bellevue Neighborhood Market Store
15063 Main Street
Bellevue, WA 98007
Phone: 425-643-9054
Hours: Open 24 hours a day

Lynnwood Walmart Store
1400 164th Street SW
Lynnwood, WA 98087
Phone: 425-741- 9445
Hours: Open 24 hours a day

Federal Way Walmart Store
1900 S 314th Street
Federal Way, WA 98003
Phone: 253-941-9974
Hours: 7 a.m. – 11 p.m. everyday

Everett Walmart Store
11400 Highway 99
Everett, WA 98204
Phone: 425-923-1740
Hours: Open 24 hours a day

Walmart Supercenters in Seattle and Tacoma

Federal Way Walmart Supercenter
34520 16th Avenue S
Federal Way, WA 98003
Phone: 253-835-4965
Hours: Open 24 hours a day

Auburn Walmart Supercenter
762 Supermall Way SW
Auburn, WA 98001
Phone: 253-735-1855
Hours: Open 24 hours a day

Lakewood Walmart Supercenter
7001 Bridgeport Way W
Lakewood, WA 98499
Phone: 253-512-0949
Hours: Open 24 hours a day

Puyallup Walmart Supercenter
310 31st Avenue SE
Puyallup, WA 98374
Phone: 253-770-4399
Hours: Open 24 hours a day

Puyallup Walmart Supercenter
16502 Meridian E
Puyallup, WA 98375
Phone: 253-446-1741
Hours: Open 24 hours a day

Bonney Lake Walmart Supercenter
19205 State Route 410 E
Bonney Lake, WA 98391
Phone: 253-826-9144
Hours: Open 24 hours a day

Spanaway Walmart Supercenter
20307 Mountain Highway E
Spanaway, WA 98387
Phone: 253-846-6008
Hours: Open 24 hours a day

Walmart Stores on the Peninsula

Port Orchard Walmart Store
3497 Bethel Road SE
Port Orchard, WA 98366
Phone: 360-874-9060
Hours: Open 24 hours a day

Bremerton Walmart Store
6797 State Highway 303 NE
Bremerton, WA 98311
Phone: 360-698-2889
Hours: Open 24 hours a day

Poulsbo Walmart Supercenter
21200 Olhava Way NW
Poulsbo, WA 98370
Phone: 360-697-3670
Hours: Open 24 hours a day
 

rexlunae

New member
Not so remarkable. They are often on the outskirts of large cities.

Walmart Locations near Seattle and Tacoma

I don't know if you can tell the scale, but all of those locations are really far from most of the people in Seattle. It's a long way to go for low prices. When I was there, I was in Kenmore, and it would have been a 45 minute drive to one. We simply never did that.
 

Angel4Truth

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I don't know if you can tell the scale, but all of those locations are really far from most of the people in Seattle. It's a long way to go for low prices. When I was there, I was in Kenmore, and it would have been a 45 minute drive to one. We simply never did that.

I dont know if you realize that in many American cities, the walmarts are outside of those city limits. It not weird or unusual.
 

rexlunae

New member
I dont know if you realize that in many American cities, the walmarts are outside of those city limits. It not weird or unusual.

I realize that it isn't unusual for Walmart. They operate on pretty thin margins, and expensive cities aren't necessarily profitable for them. And they started mostly serving rural areas.
 

kmoney

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Economics has become one of my favorite interests recently. Does mimimum wage increase unemployment? It's a difficult question to answer.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...conomists-are-so-puzzled-by-the-minimum-wage/

This is off topic but have you read anything about Thomas Piketty in your recent economics interest? I read an article about him a little while back and it piqued my interest. Want to track down a video at some point.

Thomas Piketty, the Economist Behind ‘Capital in the Twenty-First Century’ Is the Latest Overnight Intellectual Sensation
 

Angel4Truth

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Economics has become one of my favorite interests recently. Does mimimum wage increase unemployment? It's a difficult question to answer.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...conomists-are-so-puzzled-by-the-minimum-wage/

Not so difficult, if you have 2 employees making 7.50 an hour and a limited operating budget, you fire the one that does the least work when you have to pay 15.00 an hour and distribute the workload to your other employees and yourself to make up for the loss.

Or you pass that cost on to your consumers, * dont forget your own employees are consumers too* and since everyone has to increase not just you, the cost of everything goes up - and any net gain from the increased wages is lost and then some, because some people will increase costs with greed also, and claim its due to the increase in wages.

At any rate it will either increase the cost of living so much, it wasnt worth the raise, or cause a loss of business to the area, and loss of jobs either way.
 

rexlunae

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Not so difficult, if you have 2 employees making 7.50 an hour and a limited operating budget, you fire the one that does the least work when you have to pay 15.00 an hour and distribute the workload to your other employees and yourself to make up for the loss.

That assumes that you're making no profit. Read the article. There are several more options for making the pay hike work.

Or you pass that cost on to your consumers, * dont forget your own employees are consumers too* and since everyone has to increase not just you, the cost of everything goes up

That might be true if all wages were hiked at the same time, although even then there are some non-wage costs in the economy that wouldn't rise automatically. But the only wages that are increasing are the ones on the very low end of the pay spectrum. Which means that it doesn't impact the entire economy across the board and cancel out as you suggest.

- and any net gain from the increased wages is lost and then some, because some people will increase costs with greed also, and claim its due to the increase in wages.

Under capitalism, greed doesn't need a moment. It is operative always, especially in businesses which pay low wages. The thing that prevents these sorts of greedy moves is the force of competition. Unless there is massive price fixing and collusion, businesses that hike prices will lose some amount of business, and at some point, there is a diminishing return. Of course, the highly-optimized businesses like the big retailers and fast food restaurants already perform those calculations at all times anyway, so this won't change that calculus much.

At any rate it will either increase the cost of living so much, it wasnt worth the raise, or cause a loss of business to the area, and loss of jobs either way.

That could be, if the supply side of the economy were tightly constrained. But the fact of the matter is that the supply side is perfectly healthy. It's the demand side that needs help, and a large chunk of the Federal Reserve's actions have been fixing the wrong problem. All the doomsaying in the world won't make it so.

The actual history of minimum wage hikes does not even present a correlation to unemployment hikes.
 

Angel4Truth

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That assumes that you're making no profit. Read the article. There are several more options for making the pay hike work.

That assumes each company is willing, honest and there is no greed involved, and assumes you have no common sense, because anyone with a mind can see that what i said is exactly what happens each time it happens, and why now the gap between the rich and the poor is higher than ever.

Pipe dreams never take reality into consideration and entry level jobs are not for making a living for life on and supporting families.
 

rexlunae

New member
That assumes each company is willing, honest and there is no greed involved,

No, not in the slightest. I'm assuming market forces. You know, the thing that is the backbone of capitalism.

... and assumes you have no common sense,

Yeah, great argument there. 'If you don't agree, you must lack Common Sense ®'.

... because anyone with a mind can see that what i said is exactly what happens each time it happens,

You may have a mind, but I have a spreadsheet. Lets see if we can find your theory in operation.

The historical unemployment rate can be found here:
http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet

You have to fill in the fields yourself because the form only works with the POST method. But the data goes all the way back to 1948, which should be plenty to demonstrate your effect if it's there.

And here is a list of all the changes to minimum wage laws:
http://www.dol.gov/whd/minwage/chart.htm

We'll start in 1950, since it's the first year we have data in both charts. On Jan 25th, 1950, the wage was raised from $0.40/hr to $0.75/hr. That's a pretty big hike. Ok, so the unemployment rate in 1950....went down. All year. W-a-a-a-y down. So, strike one. But, that was the trailing end of a recession where the unemployment rate spiked. Who knows, maybe the effect is just too small.

So, the next hike in the wage was March 1, 1956. It went up to $1. And the unemployment rate.....went up 0.3%. And then back down. Actually, the unemployment rate was fluctuating but level throughout that period. So, no, unemployment didn't spike up here either.

That takes us to September 3, 1961, a modest raise to $1.15. And it was, pretty much totally flat. It went up 0.1%, then down by 0.2% the next month, and down for several more months following that. I think that's strike three.

I've poured over this data before, and I think it's pretty difficult to come away from it claiming what you do. It certainly isn't a foregone conclusion that what you are predicting is true, as obvious as it may seem to you. And certainly, you can find cases where unemployment went up after a wage hike, but you can find just as many where it went down, or where it was flat.

and why now the gap between the rich and the poor is higher than ever.

Right. The problem with the rich is that we aren't giving them enough money, and the problem with the poor is that we're giving them too much. That makes loads of sense.

Pipe dreams never take reality into consideration and entry level jobs are not for making a living for life on and supporting families.

Keep making those claims, but if you want to show what you are claiming, you're going to have to resort to the actual data. I've given you the sources you would need. It's really just not there. But please, go right ahead and prove me wrong. I'd like to see how you crunch the numbers to make them come out your way.
 

Angel4Truth

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Hall of Fame
Start a business and show us all how its done rex.

Show me wrong. If you could, it stands to reason the economy would not be in the condition its in and other minimum wage hikes would have already solved everything.
 

rexlunae

New member
Start a business and show us all how its done rex.

Show me wrong. If you could, it stands to reason the economy would not be in the condition its in and other minimum wage hikes would have already solved everything.

That really isn't a response, nor is it relevant here.
 

Nick M

Black Rifles Matter
LIFETIME MEMBER
Hall of Fame
Does mimimum wage increase unemployment? It's a difficult question to answer.

It isn't difficult to answer. History shows yes, every single time.

Let's keep it simple. A Subway franchise is making just margin to satisfy the operator.

Will lowering wages of the kids working there decrease his margin?

Will raising wages of the kids working there increase his margin?

The minimum wage violates the principle of freedom by limiting the range of choices open to workers, preventing them from accepting jobs at less than the legal minimum. It also prohibits employers from hiring those workers, even if both parties would be better off. Thus, contrary to the claims of minimum-wage proponents, the government does not increase opportunities for low-skilled workers by increasing the minimum wage. If a worker loses her job or can’t find one, her income is zero. Employers will not pay a worker $9 per hour if that worker cannot produce at least that amount.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesdo...-wage-delusion-and-the-death-of-common-sense/

It is very simple. When minimum wage in the US goes up, young black males go out of work. Now you know why the left wants it high so bad.

Speaking of links, it was very easy to find data.

http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/12/ra...ck-male-teens-whose-jobless-rate-is-now-44-3/

Common Sense
 
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