toldailytopic: Powerball and State Lotteries. Good? Bad? Neutral? Do you play? Why or

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Frank Ernest

Frank Ernest

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Play the state/regional lottery on rare occasion. Pot has to be over $200 million and then I'll spring for a fiver. Other than that, not much of a gambler.
 
zoo22

zoo22

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Ktoyou said:
I know that seems the logical conclusion; however, the odds of coming up two reds is a separate probability. Now you are right, spin for spin, they are independent, yet if you were to bet on three reds in a row, the odds would be a long shot.
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That's right: those odds would be a long shot. But note that bet is on all 3 spins before they take place. This follows through to betting against them coming up the same. Each spin is independent. It doesn't matter what's already happened. It seems like it would, but it doesn't.

Ktoyou said:
This is probability theory and even *though each spin is .48, the odds of three red spins are (.48)(.48)(.48), then betting black is betting against (.48)^4, while on back it is (.48) and while this seems independent, the chances uf so many heads coming up on a toss of a coin, when it does so three times, does predict the next toss with be tails.
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Again, this is dependent upon whether you're betting on multiple wheel spins or tosses before they take place, or on a single spin or toss, after the others have already taken place. The single coin toss is independent. It has a fixed probability. A coin toss is 50/50 odds, and nothing changes that (barring something like a mis-weighted coin or some sort of outside forces or miracle). Past results don't effect future tosses. Same with dice. Or a roulette wheel.

Ktoyou said:
Yes, you see it them and that is what you are doing betting in your head so many same colour, then you actually bet against the odds at some point, thus you are looking ahead.

Now if you know Junior 300/3000 probability theory, I am sure you will make some points, where I would have to review my book, if I have it, so, if that is the case, I will agree it is not as simple as I have made it appear.
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Betting on the 4th roulette spin against a 4th black hitting (after 3 blacks have hit) is a "gambler's fallacy." Past results do not effect future spins. (Hmm... What are the odds of me saying that again? :plain: )

In fact, while I don't play roulette (I have a few times in the past for fun), if I was brought to a table where black had hit a bunch of times in a row, and I had to make a bet, I'd rather bet on black, because I'd think something might be wrong with the wheel.

There aren't "winning" roulette strategies, but there are "smarter" roulette strategies. They involve money management and the bet/payoff ratios on a given bet. For the most part, you can bet roulette to limit losses.

No one has ever proven a "winning" strategy at roulette.

But here's a good one (my favorite odds question). Please don't look it up before answering, or if anyone knows the answer already, please refrain from answering.

  • There are 3 doors,
  • Two have nothing behind them, one has a million bucks behind it,
  • You get to choose a door: if you choose the door with the million bucks, you win it.
  • You choose door #1 (doesn't matter why).
  • A host knows what's behind each door.
  • The host reveals to you that nothing is behind door #2.
  • You're made the offer to switch from door #1 to door #3,
  • Do you stick with door #1 or do you change, or does it not matter, and why?

Again, please don't look it up before answering!
 
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chrysostom

chrysostom

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it is a sad thing for those who are addicted
but
it is a good thing for those who can dream of what might be
by
spending only a dollar
 
Prisca

Prisca

Pain Killer
Super Moderator
I haven't played the lotto in years, although my sister's friend just won $250,000 on a scratch ticket this past week. Makes you think twice, but I guess that's the danger of it.
 
Rusha

Rusha

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Persephone66 said:
Yeah that. More like a tax on those that are stupid and poor.

No offense meant to anyone that plays, I wish you the best of luck. I'm just calling it as I see it.
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Not a problem. You just won't be remembered when I am wealthy and powerful. ;)
 
fool

fool

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States should not be in the gambling business.
Are they gonna have state run whore houses?
 
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