climate change

[Morpheus]

bs in chemistry (heavy concentration on instrumental analysis), ms in an applied field of chemistry, but i'm doing a reboot and reentering the field of medicine, a path i turned from twenty years ago when my boys were little - hope to take it to the phd level

Several years ago one of my daughters attended a home-school group a couple times a week where parents shared expertise. I sat in on one of their science classes that was taught by a research chemist who worked for Eli Lilly Pharmaceuticles. That day this chemist actually tried to teach those children that gravity is caused by the rotation of the Earth. When I tried to add a couple actual theories of what might explain gravity that chemist got his panties in a bunch. My daughter was withdrawn shortly after.

I tell that story only to point out that someone can be trained in one field yet be a complete moron when it comes to a somewhat related field.

 

[resodko]

Several years ago one of my daughters attended a home-school group a couple times a week where parents shared expertise. I sat in on one of their science classes that was taught by a research chemist who worked for Eli Lilly Pharmaceuticles. That day this chemist actually tried to teach those children that gravity is caused by the rotation of the Earth. When I tried to add a couple actual theories of what might explain gravity that chemist got his panties in a bunch. My daughter was withdrawn shortly after.

I tell that story only to point out that someone can be trained in one field yet be a complete moron when it comes to a somewhat related field.

can you explain what is moronic or trolling about asking how data is collected?

 

[Morpheus]

can you explain what is moronic or trolling about asking how data is collected?

I apologize for the poor phrasing. I was not actually trying to imply that you are a moron, only that having expertise in one field doesn't necessarily translate into expertise in a related field. I simply used one extreme example to illustrate that point, since that particular individual in my illustration did demonstrate his ignorance of physics (and vehemently defended his errant position) to the point where he might easily be referred to as a moron when it came to gravity (and other specific examples.

I have known construction or factory workers with extremely high intellect who, due to personal interest, had a fairly good working knowledge in several scientific fields. For various reasons they were prevented from pursuing those interests in their youth, but later spent long hours studying on their own. One actually went back to school an eventually earned his doctorate in mathematics, continued working as a pipefitter for the wages and also taught night courses at Indiana University. Similarly I've met experts with such bloated egos from their degrees that they didn't think that they could learn anything from anyone else. The truly brilliant realize that they can learn from even the most surprising person and that even the most educated can be wrong, including themselves.

 

[The Barbarian]

I have known construction or factory workers with extremely high intellect who, due to personal interest, had a fairly good working knowledge in several scientific fields.

One of the most knowledgeable creationists I've known, with regard to evolution, was an auto repairman.

Truth be known, I've learned more about evolution by sitting in libraries, by walking around in the woods and marshes, and by cruising through online journal access than I ever learned in school.

The real touchstone is whether or not one actually knows what the evidence and theories say.

 

[The Barbarian]

Several years ago one of my daughters attended a home-school group a couple times a week where parents shared expertise. I sat in on one of their science classes that was taught by a research chemist who worked for Eli Lilly Pharmaceuticles. That day this chemist actually tried to teach those children that gravity is caused by the rotation of the Earth. When I tried to add a couple actual theories of what might explain gravity that chemist got his panties in a bunch. My daughter was withdrawn shortly after.

Oddly enough, my daughter had a teacher who turned out to be a creationist, who brought a creationist speaker in to the classroom to "present an alternative explanation." He was a PhD, and tried the old "woodpecker couldn't have evolved" story. Turns out, he had been fed the story himself, and was astonished to learn from my daughter that there were many transitional woodpeckers, and the transitional forms of woodpecker tongues he assumed could not exist were still around. His comment? "Well, I'm a chemist, and I don't know the details."

She also included "Of Pandas and People" in her teaching, which stopped when the district got wind of it.

This was before I was teaching, but I did know the science coordinator for the district, who had worked for a chemical company with whom I had some business.

 

[The Barbarian]

Meantime, November was seventh hottest November on record, and we are still on track for 2014 to be the hottest year.

This in spite lacking an El Nino event so far, and with evidence than an increasing amount of thermal energy is now being absorbed by deeper ocean waters, which appears to be accelerating the undercut melting of Antarctic ice shelves.

If that happens, in the next few hundred years, the oceans will rise up to four meters from melting Antarctic ice alone. It's going to be a more interesting future than we had previously suspected.

 

[resodko]

The movement of the air chills the hygrometer faster, which changes the dew point. I could see how you could infer the speed from that, depending on the type of hygrometer. But you'd need to know the static temperature too, I think.

i can envision an apparatus that controls the flow of air over the wet bulb, dependent on the speed of the vehicle and correlating temperature drop to speed

or, how about a device where the flow of air passes through a venturi and picks up an abrasive that impacts a metal strip, whereby an increase in temperature correlates to speed?


or, just measure the exhaust - hotter means the engine is working harder which means (all other things being equal) the vehicle is moving faster


or, how about hanging a heavy thermometer outside the car and measuring the deflection from vertical? :chuckle:

 

[resodko]

for those who are interested in pre-historical archaeology:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doggerland



the climate's been changing for a loooong time before the industrial revolution

 

[gcthomas]

or, just measure the exhaust - hotter means the engine is working harder which means (all other things being equal) the vehicle is moving faster

How does working harder influence the combustion temperature?

I know that electric motors work like that, as when they slow down the back emf is reduced, increasing the current and resistive heating. But it doesn't work on petrol engines.

 

[resodko]

How does working harder influence the combustion temperature?

I know that electric motors work like that, as when they slow down the back emf is reduced, increasing the current and resistive heating. But it doesn't work on petrol engines.

more fuel in = more exhaust out

 

[gcthomas]

more fuel in = more exhaust out

More means hotter, right?

 

[The Barbarian]

i can envision an apparatus that controls the flow of air over the wet bulb, dependent on the speed of the vehicle and correlating temperature drop to speed

It's not a linear effect, and depends on the humidity and ambient temperature.

or, how about a device where the flow of air passes through a venturi and picks up an abrasive that impacts a metal strip, whereby an increase in temperature correlates to speed?

Air itself does that. It's a significant effect in sling hygrometers.

or, how about hanging a heavy thermometer outside the car and measuring the deflection from vertical?

Or find a speed trap and tell the officer "I'll give you this dandy thermometer if you tell me how fast I was going."

 

[The Barbarian]

I saw a rather complete analysis of heat and mixing of jet aircraft exhaust years ago on a libertarian board called "Trash Talk." Seems someone took the time to show chemtrail conspiracy enthusiasts why their notions were so foolish.

Turboprop (or turbojet) exhaust is about 700 degrees F, and due to the vortices from wingtips, it gets mixed into cooler air rather efficiently and thus becomes rather difficult to measure.

http://www.laserfocusworld.com/arti...ir-countermeasures-aim-for-safer-flights.html
Less than you'd expect.

But this doesn't have much to do with the measurement of heat being absorbed by the oceans, or how we know how much of it is being absorbed.

The major concern is that although the atmosphere at the surface of the Earth is likely to have just gone through the hottest year on record, most of the extra heat is still going into the seas.

And not surprisingly, melting under the ice shelves in Antarctica is going faster than the models predicted (because the increase thermal energy going into the oceans was not anticipated). And that would more rapidly increase the rate of sea level change.

 

[The Barbarian]

November temps are in and it's official. Second warmest December-November year on record. Should be a bit cooler when the December numbers come in but still in the top 3.

 

[tetelestai]

New England is getting pummeled with snow.

Yet just this century, climatologists predicted snow would be scarce due to global warming:

"within a few years winter snowfall will become a very rare and exciting event". - Dr David Viner, senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, March, 2000

Observed decreases in snow and ice extent are also consistent with warming – IPCC, Climate Change Synthesis Report, 2007

“milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms. - IPCC, Third Accesment Report, 2001

“Snowlines are going up in altitude all over the world. The idea that we will get less snow is absolutely in line with what we expect from global warming.” - WalesOnline, Sir John Houghton – atmospheric physicist, 30 June 2007

"the climate models end up saying that there should be less snow, not more." - Dr. Roy Spencer, principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, 2014

“But it does not take a scientist to size up the effects of snowless winters on the children too young to remember the record-setting blizzards of 1996. For them, the pleasures of sledding and snowball fights are as out-of-date as hoop-rolling, and the delight of a snow day off from school is unknown.” - Dr. Michael Oppenheimer of the Environmental Defense Fund, New York Times, January, 2000

"Snow is so scarce today that most Virginia children probably don't own a sled." - RFK Jr. Environmental Attorney, 2008

"More heat waves, no snow in the winter" - Max Plank Institute of Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany 2008


“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” - Dr. David Viner, senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, January, 2000

"The rise of temperature associated with climate change leads to a general reduction in the proportion of precipitation falling as snow, and a consequent reduction in many areas of the reduction of snow." - Global Environmental Change, Nigel W. Arnell, Oct 1, 1999

“Good bye winter. Never again snow?” - Spiegel, 1 April 2000

"The globe is warming so rapidly, and variability is increasing so much – both of those things together, I’m glad I don’t have stock in ski areas.” - Terry Root, Senior fellow at Stanford Institute of the Environment, Feb., 2014

"Artificial snow-making has become the stopgap defense against the early effects of climate change." - New York Times, Feb., 2014

 

[The Barbarian]

New England is getting pummeled with snow.

Seas were warmer lately. Warmer seas, more moisture in the air. More moisture in the air, more precipitation.

Yet just this century, climatologists predicted snow would be scarce due to global warming:

Maybe some did, but the majority accepted the models that showed more snow at higher latitudes.

Here's what's probably happening to New York, now:
This study looks at how climate change can impact weather systems, such as lake-effect snow.

Wright examined the impact of ice cover and water temperature on lake-effect snow. He used a high-resolution weather forecast model to answer the question: How would lake-effect snow be affected if there is complete ice cover on the Great Lakes, no lake ice cover or warmer lake temperatures?

The model performs complex calculations that take into consideration the interaction between ice development, temperature and lake-effect snow. For example, with the projection of warmer temperatures in the future, the change can affect the amount of ice and when the ice forms over the Great Lakes. Lake ice, in a typical year, helps to reduce or even eliminate lake-effect snow in the Great Lake around mid-January to early February, said Wright.

The model indicated that the intensity of the snowfall could also increase, said Wright, which can affect many things like personal travel, more frequent and more intense algal blooms, and draining of local government budgets to clear and remove the snow.

http://www.miseagrant.umich.edu/publications/feature-stories/climate-change-leads-to-more-snow/

And this:
The United States has been walloped by twice as many of the most extreme snowstorms in the past 50 years than in the previous 60 years, according to an upcoming study on extreme weather by leading federal and university climate scientists. This also fits with a dramatic upward trend in extreme winter precipitation — both rain and snow — in the Northeastern U.S. charted by the National Climatic Data Center.

— Yet the Global Snow Lab at Rutgers University says that spring snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has shrunk on average by 1 million square miles in the last 45 years.

— And an upcoming study in the Journal of Climate says computer models predict annual global snowfall to shrink by more than a foot in the next 50 years. The study's author said most people live in parts of the United States that are likely to see annual snowfall drop between 30 and 70 percent by the end of the century.

"Shorter snow season, less snow overall, but the occasional knockout punch," Princeton University climate scientist Michael Oppenheimer said. "That's the new world we live in."

Ten climate scientists say the idea of less snow and more blizzards makes sense: A warmer world is likely to decrease the overall amount of snow falling each year and shrink snow season. But when it is cold enough for a snowstorm to hit, the slightly warmer air is often carrying more moisture, producing potentially historic blizzards.

"Strong snowstorms thrive on the ragged edge of temperature — warm enough for the air to hold lots of moisture, meaning lots of precipitation, but just cold enough for it to fall as snow," said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center. "Increasingly, it seems that we're on that ragged edge."
http://www.usatoday.com/story/weath...ntradiction-less-snow-more-blizzards/1927893/

Observed decreases in snow and ice extent are also consistent with warming – IPCC, Climate Change Synthesis Report, 2007

Yep. For example, Greenland ice sheet is retreating, and as you learned earlier, the Arctic sea ice coverage has dropped dramatically over the last few decades.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

“Snowlines are going up in altitude all over the world. The idea that we will get less snow is absolutely in line with what we expect from global warming.” - WalesOnline, Sir John Houghton – atmospheric physicist, 30 June 2007

Because you don't know what "snowlines" are, you've confused them with snowfall. Snowlines are the altitude at which snow persists year round on mountains. Because the climate is warming, the snowlines are rising. It's an ecological problem in the Rockies, for example, where many relict ice age species live and depend on the cold weather.

"the climate models end up saying that there should be less snow, not more." - Dr. Roy Spencer, principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, 2014

Roy thinks so, because denier models don't account for increased evaporation. Because he doesn't accept the models used by real climatologists, Roy thinks warmer winters must have less snow. Roy is (although he doesn't reveal the conflict in his articles) paid by a right-wing think tank that is owned by deniers.

"The globe is warming so rapidly, and variability is increasing so much – both of those things together, I’m glad I don’t have stock in ski areas.” - Terry Root, Senior fellow at Stanford Institute of the Environment, Feb., 2014

It's that snowline thing, again. Do you see how they fooled you?

"Artificial snow-making has become the stopgap defense against the early effects of climate change." - New York Times, Feb., 2014

Yep. Same trick. You're a sucker only as long as you don't think for yourself. You're looking for a simplistic set of conditions, and nature is always more interesting than you think it's going to be.

BTW, Jan 2015 was the second hottest January on record, and hotter than anything since 2007. And yet areas near large lakes and oceans are being socked with record snowfall.

Roy is baffled, but climatologists (Roy isn't a climatologist, you know) knew this was coming. The models predicted it.

 

[The Barbarian]

Arctic Sea Ice decline:

Note repeated losses, followed by "recoveries." But each "recovery" is less than the last, and so over the years, a dramatic loss in sea ice.

Here's nice graph on the way arctic land snow cover is declining:

Pretty much says it all. And deniers are still baffled how such declines in ice and snow can happen with record blizzards.

But a brief look at the data says it all.

 

[Nick M]

How does working harder influence the combustion temperature?

Run up a hill and ask that same question. You libs can't be this stupid.

The heavy load creates more engine "vacuum" which forces more air into the engine. The vacuum is really just lower than atmospheric pressure.

 

[Nick M]

*Notes barbie posts more phony data that has been cooked*

 

[Nick M]

Global warming deniers are more educated on climate than global warming fools.

Are global warming skeptics simply ignorant about climate science?

Not so, says a forthcoming paper in the journal Advances in Political Psychology by Yale Professor Dan Kahan. He finds that skeptics score about the same (in fact slightly better) on climate science questions.


The study asked 2,000 respondents nine questions about where they thought scientists stand on climate science.

On average, skeptics got about 4.5 questions correct, whereas manmade warming believers got about 4 questions right.

One question, for instance, asked if scientists believe that warming would “increase the risk of skin cancer.” Skeptics were more likely than believers to know that is false.

Skeptics were also more likely to correctly say that if the North Pole icecap melted, global sea levels would not rise. One can test this with a glass of water and an ice cube – the water level will not change after the ice melts. Antarctic ice melting, however, would increase sea levels because much of it rests on land.