Carl Sagan: Prophet of Scientism

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One Eyed Jack

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mighty_duck said:
Using Clete lingo, that means that you have 100% certain knowledge that your CPU is (for example) a Pentium.

No, I have 100% certain knowledge that my CPU is an AMD Sempron (a Thoroughbred B core, to be exact).

Now is it possible that the person who sold you the CPU actually replaced the processor with a different one to save costs, but put a sticker on it, and made the diagnostic information the same?

Uh... no. And how do you propose they change the diagnostic information? A lot of that stuff is hard-coded and can't be changed.

Of course it's possible.

Not with me, it isn't.

So either:
1. You concede that you don't have 100% certain knowledge of what your CPU you have, and are still able to claim you know what CPU you have.
2. You claim to know all popossibilitieshat could have changed CPU's on you are false. That would make you Omniscient, which is a pretty neat thing to have.

So which option is it?

Neither. I know exactly (with 100% certainty) what kind of processor is in my computer, because I'm the one who built it. :)
 

avatar382

New member
***Slightly OT***
When I came to work this morning, I noticed that this thread had moved!

I see it's been hall of famed. It's cool that it's been HoFed, but wont that mean that less people will see it, since it's no longer in one of the big three (you know, politcs, religion, the rest)

Wouldn't it make more sense to HoF a thread after discussion has winded down, you know like ready for retirement?
 

GuySmiley

Well-known member
avatar382 said:
***Slightly OT***
When I came to work this morning, I noticed that this thread had moved!

I see it's been hall of famed. It's cool that it's been HoFed, but wont that mean that less people will see it, since it's no longer in one of the big three (you know, politcs, religion, the rest)

Wouldn't it make more sense to HoF a thread after discussion has winded down, you know like ready for retirement?
I'm 99.99999% sure that the debate is over and Clete won and any further discussion will just be for fun. The winding down has begun.
 

avatar382

New member
GuySmiley said:
I'm 99.99999% sure that the debate is over and Clete won and any further discussion will just be for fun. The winding down has begun.

Well, that's a load of :cow: . Clete still is yet to answer my last rebuttal about 10 posts up.

Unless your trying to make a funny with your reference to the 99.99999% bit :chuckle:
 

koban

New member
GuySmiley said:
I'm 99.99999% sure that the debate is over and Clete won and any further discussion will just be for fun. The winding down has begun.



This from a guy with a flower pot on his head! :doh:
 

fool

Well-known member
Hall of Fame
I think it's funny that theist like to drag the old "absolute" into every disscusion.
I find it even funnier that all one has to do to trump their absolutes is to make up some of your own.
They say Yaweh, you say Invisible Spigetti Monster, and your off and running!
What nobody (other than fool) sees is that to point at an entity and say "that guy there gives me absolutes" makes a relativist out of you. Your absolutes are relative to what your Spigetti Monster says.
 

mighty_duck

New member
One Eyed Jack said:
No, I have 100% certain knowledge that my CPU is an AMD Sempron (a Thoroughbred B core, to be exact).

Uh... no. And how do you propose they change the diagnostic information? A lot of that stuff is hard-coded and can't be changed.

Neither. I know exactly (with 100% certainty) what kind of processor is in my computer, because I'm the one who built it. :)

You may have built the computer, but you had to buy the CPU. If you don't see that there are an infinite amount of possibilities that could have caused The CPU you bought to be different than the one you wanted, then you need to jump start your imagination.

Sure they are very very improbable, but impossible?
1. AMD engineering made a slight modification and created the Sempron Thoroughbred B.aaa core. The marketing guys said it would be confusing, so they said keep the diagnostic information the same.
2. Aliens form the planet Xaroolk 5 wanted to test the butterfly (chaos) effect on life on earth, but instead of manipulating a butterfly wings, they decided to change CPUs on you. The differences are almost impossible to detect by external means. But you scored big with some alien tachnology. Congrats!
3. God sees you are such an avid poster on this site, spreading his word and all, and decides to reward you with a CPU upgrade. He made it nearly undetectable, except that the next time you play mrs. pacman, you may notice she is running half a percent faster than on other computers. He truely works in mysterious ways.
The list really does go on as far as the imagination takes it. How could you be 100% certain all these possibilities are false without Omniscience?
 

Skeptic

New member
Beware of baloney!

CARL SAGAN'S BALONEY DETECTION KIT
http://www1.tpgi.com.au/users/tps-seti/baloney.html

The following are suggested as tools for testing arguments and detecting fallacious or fraudulent arguments:

  • Wherever possible there must be independent confirmation of the facts.
  • Encourage substantive debate on the evidence by knowledgeable proponents of all points of view.
  • Arguments from authority carry little weight (in science there are no "authorities").
  • Spin more than one hypothesis - don't simply run with the first idea that caught your fancy.
  • Try not to get overly attached to a hypothesis just because it's yours.
  • Quantify, wherever possible.
  • If there is a chain of argument every link in the chain must work.
  • "Occam's razor" - if there are two hypothesis that explain the data equally well choose the simpler.
  • Ask whether the hypothesis can, at least in principle, be falsified (shown to be false by some unambiguous test). In other words, it is testable? Can others duplicate the experiment and get the same result?

    Common fallacies of logic and rhetoric
  • Ad hominem - attacking the arguer and not the argument.
  • Argument from "authority".
  • Argument from adverse consequences (putting pressure on the decision maker by pointing out dire consequences of an "unfavourable" decision).
  • Appeal to ignorance (absence of evidence is not evidence of absence).
  • Special pleading (typically referring to god's will).
  • Begging the question (assuming an answer in the way the question is phrased).
  • Observational selection (counting the hits and forgetting the misses).
  • Statistics of small numbers (such as drawing conclusions from inadequate sample sizes).
  • Misunderstanding the nature of statistics (President Eisenhower expressing astonishment and alarm on discovering that fully half of all Americans have below average intelligence!)
  • Inconsistency (e.g. military expenditures based on worst case scenarios but scientific projections on environmental dangers thriftily ignored because they are not "proved").
  • Non sequitur - "it does not follow" - the logic falls down.
  • Post hoc, ergo propter hoc - "it happened after so it was caused by" - confusion of cause and effect.
  • Meaningless question ("what happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable object?).
  • Excluded middle - considering only the two extremes in a range of possibilities (making the "other side" look worse than it really is).
  • Short-term v. long-term - a subset of excluded middle ("why pursue fundamental science when we have so huge a budget deficit?").
  • Slippery slope - a subset of excluded middle - unwarranted extrapolation of the effects (give an inch and they will take a mile).
  • Confusion of correlation and causation.
  • Straw man - caricaturing (or stereotyping) a position to make it easier to attack..
  • Suppressed evidence or half-truths.
  • Weasel words - for example, use of euphemisms for war such as "police action" to get around limitations on Presidential powers. "An important art of politicians is to find new names for institutions which under old names have become odious to the public"
 

Clete

Truth Smacker
Silver Subscriber
avatar382 said:
Well, that's a load of :cow: . Clete still is yet to answer my last rebuttal about 10 posts up.

Unless your trying to make a funny with your reference to the 99.99999% bit :chuckle:
While you are correct, I have not responded as yet to your questions, the only point in doing so would be for the academic excercise. The debate has been over days ago. Since then we've done little else but repeat ourselves.

Nevertheless, I will respond, but not tonight. I've run smooth out of time for this evening but Tuesdays are my official TOL night so I should be able to get too it then. I'm realy sorry about the delay, but it has been unavoidable.

Resting in Him,
Clete
 

avatar382

New member
Clete said:
While you are correct, I have not responded as yet to your questions, the only point in doing so would be for the academic excercise. The debate has been over days ago. Since then we've done little else but repeat ourselves.

Nevertheless, I will respond, but not tonight. I've run smooth out of time for this evening but Tuesdays are my official TOL night so I should be able to get too it then. I'm realy sorry about the delay, but it has been unavoidable.

Resting in Him,
Clete

Respond whenever you have the chance.

However, do not think for a moment that this "debate has been over". To suggest so is insulting.

I eagerly await your response, because you have done presicesly squat to answer my main point. You don't win debates by saying so.

You'll note in my post here http://www.theologyonline.com/forums/showpost.php?p=954813&postcount=113 I ask several direct questions, in Battle Royale style. I thank you in advance for your direct answers to all of them.
 

mighty_duck

New member
So a quick summary.

Theist: asserts that he has absolute knowledge. Asks Atheist if he does.
Atheist: No, I don't. But I'd sure like to have you show me how you got your absolute knowledge.
Theist: I already did.
Atheist. No you didn't! you just asserted it!
Theist: I have already won, so I'm just humoring you with my answers from now on.
Atheist: You didn't win anything. Just show me your absolute knowledge already!
Theist: Without absolute knowledge, you wouldn't be able to understand that I have absolute knowledge. Therefore, I win.

Only in the land of Clete...
 

Clete

Truth Smacker
Silver Subscriber
mighty_duck said:
So a quick summary.

Theist: asserts that he has absolute knowledge. Asks Atheist if he does.
Atheist: No, I don't. But I'd sure like to have you show me how you got your absolute knowledge.
Theist: I already did.
Atheist. No you didn't! you just asserted it!
Theist: I have already won, so I'm just humoring you with my answers from now on.
Atheist: You didn't win anything. Just show me your absolute knowledge already!
Theist: Without absolute knowledge, you wouldn't be able to understand that I have absolute knowledge. Therefore, I win.

Only in the land of Clete...
Don't worry. I plan on summarizing the debate myself where I will point out both where I demonstrated why and how I have absolute knowledge and where you lost the debate.

Resting in Him,
Clete
 

Balder

New member
It seems to me that the presuppositionalist apologetic is a disgruntled reaction rather than an honest position: someone noticed that debates between Christians and atheists often "presupposed" the criteria for determining "valid knowledge" that are common to the modern scientific worldview, and then said, "Hey, why do that? I can presuppose my own criteria, start from there, and demand that others accept those presuppositions or admit that they've 'lost already.'" After all, Christianity cannot pass the truth tests of "science" since it is not science. The reaction has been to turn the tables, essentially re-asserting the much maligned bumper sticker sentiment, "The Bible says it, I believe it, and that settles it" -- hopefully in a more sophisticated way.

A problem here is a failure to differentiate non-reducible types of validity claims, either through ignoring or discrediting alternative modes, or "subjugating" one mode to another. Atheistic materialism has tended to emphasize empirical observation, concerning itself primarily with objective truth (correspondence, representation, propositional) and functional fit (systems theory, structural-functionalism, etc), and largely ignoring or devaluing subjective experience. Religious traditions have largely emphasized more interior (subjective) value claims and methods of validation, particularly truthfulness (sincerity, integrity, trustworthiness) and justness (cultural fit, mutual understanding,
rightness or righteousness).

These four different approaches are not really reducible to the terms of whatever method one happens to prefer, though society has been fragmented by the efforts of one camp or another trying to discredit other approaches, or to subjugate them to the "ultimate criteria" of its preferred method. I think this is what is going on here in this "reaction" of presuppositionalism (a form of narrow absolutism) to the equally narrow absolutism of the atheist materialists with which many Christians have been wrestling.
 

truthteller86

New member
Balder said:
... "The Bible says it, I believe it, and that settles it"
I believe it's:
God said it, I believe it, that settles it ! I disagree.

I prefer: God said it, that settles it, if I choose to believe it, it will be beneficial for me. However that may be a little long to fit on a bumper sticker. :p
 

Balder

New member
truthteller86 said:
I believe it's:
God said it, I believe it, that settles it ! I disagree.

I prefer: God said it, that settles it, if I choose to believe it, it will be beneficial for me. However that may be a little long to fit on a bumper sticker. :p
But isn't it true that you believe "God said it" because the Bible says God said it? So ultimately the Bible is at the head of that chain of authority.
 

truthteller86

New member
Balder said:
But isn't it true that you believe "God said it" because the Bible says God said it? So ultimately the Bible is at the head of that chain of authority.
He didn't have to say it verbally, since He wrote it on our hearts. However, I am grateful, as a communicative entity that He chose to have other comunicative entities write it down. The head of that chain of authority is the authority.

Live long and prosper Balder, because as long as there is breath, there is hope. Now, I've got more redneck matters to attend.
 

One Eyed Jack

New member
mighty_duck said:
You may have built the computer, but you had to buy the CPU.

Not necessarily. I've built several computers without spending a penny because I built them out of spare parts. But yeah, I bought this processor. So what?

If you don't see that there are an infinite amount of possibilities that could have caused The CPU you bought to be different than the one you wanted, then you need to jump start your imagination.

I'll leave the imagination to you. As for me, if I had gotten the wrong CPU, I would have sent it back.

Sure they are very very improbable, but impossible?
1. AMD engineering made a slight modification and created the Sempron Thoroughbred B.aaa core.

They'd just give it a different stepping -- which would show up in the diagnostic information.

The marketing guys said it would be confusing, so they said keep the diagnostic information the same.

First of all, the marketing guys at AMD don't really care about confusing people like you. Secondly, I'm not one of the people who would be confused. And third, if you change the chip internally, the diagnostic information will change too.

2. Aliens form the planet Xaroolk 5 wanted to test the butterfly (chaos) effect on life on earth, but instead of manipulating a butterfly wings, they decided to change CPUs on you. The differences are almost impossible to detect by external means. But you scored big with some alien tachnology. Congrats!

That's just stupid.

3. God sees you are such an avid poster on this site, spreading his word and all, and decides to reward you with a CPU upgrade.

I don't need a CPU upgrade -- if I want my computer to run faster, I'll just overclock it. Besides, my next computer is going to use a dual-core processor. Upgrading this one any further will be a waste of time.

The list really does go on as far as the imagination takes it. How could you be 100% certain all these possibilities are false without Omniscience?

I don't need omniscience to know what kind of CPU I have in my computer. All I need to do is look.
 

SUTG

New member
OEJ,

It sounds as if you would have been one of the folks who were 'absolutely certain' that the Earth was flat. If all one has to do to be absolutely certain is declare themselves so, why can I just say I'm absolutely certain my atheistic worldview accounts for logic, morals, etc.?
 

Skeptic

New member
"The scientist has a lot of experience with ignorance and doubt and uncertainty, and this experience is of very great importance, I think. When a scientist doesn't know the answer to a problem, he is ignorant. When he has a hunch as to what the result is, he is uncertain. And when he is pretty darned sure of what the result is going to be, he is in some doubt. We have found it of paramount importance that in order to progress we must recognize the ignorance and leave room for doubt. Scientific knowledge is a body of statements of varying degrees of certainty -- some most unsure, some nearly sure, none absolutely certain."

Richard P. Feynman - from a public address given at the 1955 autumn meeting of the National Academy of Sciences.
http://www.inf.ufrgs.br/~drebes/value.html

Feynman is a Nobel Prize winning physicist considered by many to be the father of quantum electrodynamics.
 

mighty_duck

New member
One Eyed Jack said:
First of all, the marketing guys at AMD don't really care about confusing people like you. Secondly, I'm not one of the people who would be confused. And third, if you change the chip internally, the diagnostic information will change too.

Marketing guys are crazy, don't try to rationlize their behavior. I once worked for a software company, and a month after we released a 4.3 version, we had to release a nearly identical product, which was version 6.0. The marketing reasoning was that the competition would also be releasing a version 6.0, so we had to..

One Eyed Jack said:
That's just stupid.
It may be stupid, but is it impossible? Is it any more far fetched than Clete's suggestion that we are all just a program running on commander Data's desk? If it is not impossible, how can you be 100% certain that it isn't true.


One Eyed Jack said:
I don't need a CPU upgrade -- if I want my computer to run faster, I'll just overclock it. Besides, my next computer is going to use a dual-core processor. Upgrading this one any further will be a waste of time.

Now you claim to know all of God's motives as well? You truely are Omniscient.

Absolute certainty is more than just a strong conviction. For that, we have the common english word "know", which would be completely useless if we held it up to the standard of absolute certainty. No one would know anything.
 
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