ThePhy said:
Too broad a statement. As was shown a couple posts ago, the way Miller had his original apparatus set up the SLoT was not applicable, because energy flowed in from outside the system. Once again, the SLoT only applies when its preconditions are satisfied.
It's okay. I would have always expected that the tendency for things to go from high energy to low energy spontaneously would have been covered by the Second Law of Thermodynamics. It's only what I've been taught all my life, but then again, I didn't study thermodynamics directly in college. And all I would be interested in is a way to reference "all things tend to go from high energy to low energy if given the chance". If that can be established, then the strict definition of the Second Law of Thermodynamics doesn't matter.
So can we call this tendency for things to go from high energy to low energy spontaneously a particular name? Something shorter than "water flows downhill". How about "Slotty"? It's arbitrary, but overlaps a bit with a reference to the Second Law. Or perhaps you have a better name? I'm surprised that since 99.99999 (or more) of the situations where the Second Law is referenced they are not
truly open. And with that in mind, you'd almost wonder why science doesn't have a simple way to reference this phenomenon of "water runs downhill".
Yorzhik said:
We just need to know how much energy is coming from where.
ThePhy said:
Not necessarily. In the “batteries inside the system” versions of Miller I postulated, I can make predictions based on the SLoT with no understanding at all about how it is wired internally or even what the batteries are used for.
Eh, no. I think we are talking past each other a bit here. I'm only saying that if the energy comes from a battery, or if the energy comes from a power supply, we can still make predictions about the energy flow. You seem to be hung up on the definition of the SLoT, which I hope I cleared up in my immediately previous quote.
ThePhy said:
Invoking the word “programming” evokes images of computer programs, which can be misleading when talking about biological entities. But yes, I agree that beneficial changes will not be kept unless they are compatible with what is already there.
Invoking "programming" isn't too misleading. The point is only that getting a beneficial change to stick is harder than just actually, as it were, figuring out what a beneficial change would be and adding it to the DNA without consideration of all the changes required or all the other interrelated systems involved.
ThePhy said:
Why? I don’t see why this follows.
Because the chances of breaking the program and/or machinery that maintains the information media also increases over time. In other words, the chances of losing the programming or machinery that
would accommodate a positive change is at risk just as the rest of the system is.
ThePhy said:
I want to be very sure that if we are talking Shannon’s information, then any conclusions that are drawn do not imply the corresponding conclusions about thermodynamics and entropy. Arguments about energy flows from the sun and closed systems are not what Shannon was discussing.
Of course.
ThePhy said:
As I said, I am not a sickle anemia expert, so you tell me what Shannon’s view would be of increase in information as related to sickle cell anemia.
I'm pretty sure Shannon would be ruthless about insisting that information decreased. The mutation would be seen as a hole poked in the message/noise of what a red blood cell is.
ThePhy said:
Irrelevant, unless you are willing to go on record as saying that there are no cases where a mutation would not confer a distinct survival advantage. On a bacterial level, strains have isolated where there was no genetic variation left in the strain to select from. Yet when presented with a situation where they had to change or die, a small number survived and were found to have done so by what can only be called a beneficial (life-saving) mutation.
There is no overall trend that mutations can confer general survival advantages. For example; let's look at the survival of a player at a craps table in Las Vegas. They may win certain rolls of the dice, but as time increases, their chances of having those rolls overcome the odds are less and less to the point of being impossible. Thus, it is almost certain that if the bacteria that you cite here were placed back in a normal environment, they would be less apt to survive. I guess you could say that's another prediction that creationists make.
ThePhy said:
Not true. Just because the chances of getting clearer messages are much smaller than the chances of degraded messages does not mean the degraded ones will come to predominate.
No; that's exactly what it means. If the tendency is in one direction, then as the sample increases (read: increased mutations over time) it becomes more sure in that direction. That is as sure as "all energy will go from high energy to low energy spontaneously if given the chance."
ThePhy continues:
In the more traditional terminology, we are just talking about good mutations versus bad ones. Bad and good mutations are not selected for equally by natural selection. If we start with the premise that most members of a species are very close copies of their parents, then the survivability of the species is nearly static. When one member gets a bad mutation, it dies without reproducing, or if it has kids, they have poor reproductive odds. Ultimately, the bad mutation is eliminated from the population, and the average member of the species is still the norm. When a good mutation comes, that animal has slightly higher reproductive success, as do its kids, and their kids, until they come to dominate the population. What was the norm before is now the less fit.
If it only worked that way. Unfortunately, good mutations are very rare. So rare, in fact, that there will be a number of neutral or bad mutations before a good one can possibly come along. How do I know this? Because not only will a good mutation have to be changed in whatever point it did change, but it will have to also come with changes (or wait for changes) to other systems that are dependent on that other single change. The odds are against the idea that a pure strain will survive generation through generation, stacking good mutation upon good mutation in their DNA. In fact, mutational load is a serious topic in genetics.
ThePhy said:
Remember that even though detrimental mutations substantially outnumber the beneficial ones, the average member of the species has neither. It is not as though an animal is born with 98 bad mutations and one good one. An occasional animal will have a bad mutation. Far less often one will come out on the plus side. But these are the ones that natural selection acts on. The bad ones loose out, the good ones multiply.
No, it
is as though an animal will be born with 98 bad mutations and one good one (I'll make the bold prediction that it would be a much worse ratio). The average member of the species will have mutational load that only gets worse as time goes by. Your foundation is wrong and thus your conclusion that "the bad ones lose out, the good ones multiply" is wrong.
ThePhy said:
As to probabilities, there is an element of that. An animal is born with a good mutation, but breaks its leg and gets infection and dies as an infant. Mutation terminated. As to thresholds that block further progression, occasionally there may be. But biology is capable of modifications in myriads of directions, and blocking one does not block all. Better hearing, better eyesight, protective coloration, wings, pheromones, speed, agility, claws, immune system, echo-location, smell, strength, scales, intelligence, neck length, manual dexterity, and on and on. Lots of ways for every species to experience beneficial changes.
So I take that as a "yes", you go with the probabilities. Do you always go with the probabilities, or just in this case?
I'd say it's more like this; your white bunny might win the roll of the dice today, but he has to keep rolling, and the odds will get him if enough time goes by. But the question is begged... how did that bunny roll so many good rolls to get there in the first place? Or is that your proof? - "the bunny exists, therefore evolution is true"
But it's even worse. Your bunny
might be lucky enough to get white fur from just a single point mutation, but most advantages are going to require many mutations to many interconnected systems.
And it get's
worse; sometimes those systems have to be changed at the same time or the part of the system that
did change will be a detriment, not a help to the organism.