one thing that always bothers me is the assumption that what we see in the lab over an extremely limited period of time can be extrapolated out, reliably, to billions and billions of years
Can you give a specific relevant example?
Don't forget this cuts both ways. If the error bars are getting bigger, the actual value could be at the far end of what you would rather not believe to be true. Maybe, if you think things are really uncertain, the age of the earth is actually twice as much, say, 10 billion years. Are you happy to accept that outcome of claiming large amounts of uncertainty?
while disregarding any sort of error analysis - applies to radiometric dating, evolutionary change, etc
The calculated error in the radioisotope measurement of the age of the solar system is +/- 1%.
What aspect of evolutionary change, or what specific experiment would you like an error analysis for?
slightly different topic, but same concept: Peterson discusses the fallacy of ignoring error starting at 1:30
It's a bit of a confused rant, isn't it. But he is right about taking a trend with a relatively wide margin of error and extrapolating. It's exactly the same problem with the attempts creationists have made to extrapolate backwards what they believe are changes in the rate of beta decay. They applied an exponential curve to an experimentally dodgy set of old data, and magically came up with an age of the earth of a few thousands of years. You could choose a different mathematical model and come up with hundreds of millions of years, and still be wrong. Exponential curves will get you just about any answer you desire.
Part of the problem with climate change is that we have apparently induced, through the emission of carbon dioxide, something that is starting to look like a run-away event, perhaps something exponential. So, isn't it prudent to do something about that now, or ten years ago, in case the effect is at the upper end of the error bars rather than the lower end? Shouldn't Jordan Peterson be saying that, because the curve itself is alarming even at the lower end, every attempt based in science at fixing things should be tried, even if some fail? I think he should apply his own analysis to his idea of raising everyone out of poverty so they care. Could be THE answer, or could be a waste of valuable time. We have little choice but to act for the sake of ourselves and the future of humanity. We could also talk the Roman church out of its pathological obsession with contraception. Condoms would help things, too.
But as you rightly say, different topic.
Stuart