58 Dead, 500 Plus Wounded

WizardofOz

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You've moved the goal posts. The conversation with The Barbarian was about homicide rates. Now you're referencing "higher crime averages".
No. Barbarian was discussing higher murder rates being a direct result of who was in office. A correlation, at best, but a false one.

Furthermore, it is like comparing ice cream sales to homicide. Both go up in the summer. They are correlating, but not causational, which is Barbarian's implication.

You first jumped into the conversation with the following post:
The statistic is skewed, because it includes acts of terrorism, which cares not for who is in office. September 11 inevitably tips the percentage towards Republicans.

It isn't that the statistics are rigged, just dishonest. Thus, implying a false conclusion.

It has been shown that the statistics do not include acts of terrorism. September 11 does not tip the percentage toward republicans.

Agreed?

I agree that who is president is a correlation and not necessarily a causation of crime statistics, but that was the conversation that was taking place. ClimateSanity started with:
What makes you think leftists are actually interested in ending crime?
Which was when @TheBarbarian offered the statistics of lower crime during Democrat presidencies, which is true.

TheBarbarian even offered a disclaimer in his post:
Now, you could argue that leftists are indifferent to crime and lower crime happens as a consequence of other things they do, and that rightists want to lower crime, but just aren't very good at it.

Or you could try the usual excuses:

"The statistics are rigged!"

or

"They were just lucky!"

Whatever you like.

So, what was dishonest about the statistics and what false conclusion was he implying?

If you want to talk about "higher crime averages" then provide the numbers and define the scope. I am not even disputing your claim just noting that you clearly moved the topic from homicide rates to "higher crime averages", whatever that is even referring to.
I did. They are in my source link. It was an FBI publication from 2016.

So, I did not move the goal posts. I instead challenged false implications with statistics published by the FBI, highlighting the classification of "violent crime."

The conversation was homicide rates. Why did you bring up "higher crime averages" in the first place? Also, what conclusions are you drawing from your F.B.I data?

What statistics that you referenced challenge which false implications?

Please be more precise.

The lack of a jump was my entire point on the faulty nature of Barbarian's implications.

No, that was a mistaken claim by you. You thought September 11th attacks were included. They were not. That is why there was no jump as would otherwise be expected.

Also, why are various terrorist attacks not included, but others are? One need only review key years and data for those years to see convenient forgetfulness of certain murders. For example, the Orlando Club shooting. September 11. These were murders. Sure, caused by terrorists, but still murder. Conveniently left out of "murder rate statistics." But a Cuban communist terrorist shooting five people is included.

That's just the way these things are defined. I don't think there is a partisan angle to it. And, this just further proves TheBararian's point about the murder rate in 2001 being what it was with September 11th not included in the data. If September 11th was not included and the Pulse nightclub shooting was, it would make Republican numbers look better at a glance versus those of a Democrat presidency.


Or, those deaths were not included in the statistics. Which do you think is the more plausible explanation? :think:

Or, what was going on during Reagan and H.W. Bush's as far as homicides were concerned...The homicide rate was 9.8 the first year of Reagan's presidency. It went down to 8.4 in his last. The homicide rate was 8.7 during the first year of H.W. Bush's presidency. It went up to 9.2 during his final year as president. The homicide rate was 9.5 during the first year of Clinton's presidency. It went down to 5.5 during his final year.
See? It is all about convenient classifications.

What do "convenient classifications" have to do with anything? Please expound.

Why be so vague ("violence") when the discussion was already quite specific (homicide)?
You are focusing on one word, rather than the point. Violence is a part of "violent crime." It is also a part of "murder." It isn't being vague; it is being general in order to cover anyone's attempt at interchanging terms.

Sure, but you must admit that no one was discussing anything but homicide rates until you brought this up...which is fine but this is why I mentioned moving the goal posts.

The statistics do support that since 1950 the homicide rate was lower during Democrat administrations that it was during Republican ones.
Why are we using 1950? Is it because Democrats were conservatives and Republicans more liberal, then? It does help in tipping those rates and percentages.

It makes no difference to me how far you go back...Pick your time frame.

I was only discussing what was already on the table.

No. I only exposed false conclusions and statistics.
What statistics were false?

Your applications of fallacies, such as moving the goal posts, to me, is faulty. Sure, you tried to point out "vague" vocabulary, yet all the while ignoring Barbarian's false implications of cause. This, combined with the claim that I altered the narrative is an attempt at attacking character, a fallacy in itself, as it is not a valid argument.

No, you are mistaken here as well. Moving the goal posts attacks your argument and is therefore not an ad hominem.

I would say that claiming I "moved the goal posts" is misrepresenting. If you notice the data I utilized, the phrasing is "violent crime." Sure, Barbarian first "used murder rates," but that was not his point, as evidenced by his conclusion. So, I never moved goal posts; I addressed the issue that Barbarian chose, based on his false conclusion.

He discussed homicide rates and you then shifted the discussion to average crime rates, which was moving the goal posts. It's fine as this alternate data does nothing to bolster your argument, as I showed.

Second, why do statistics presented by yourself consistently highlight Bush Sr, yet no mention of Bush Jr? Interesting when one examines those statistics.

Because that is how you framed the discussion:
For example, Clinton's presidency had higher crime averages than Bush or Reagan.

Put the presidencies in order...Reagan -> Bush Sr. -> Clinton

Why didn't you mention Bush Jr? I was simply going off your (shown to be inaccurate) claim.
 

jsanford108

New member
I agree that who is president is a correlation and not necessarily a causation of crime statistics, but that was the conversation that was taking place. ClimateSanity started with:
Which was when @TheBarbarian offered the statistics of lower crime during Democrat presidencies, which is true.
The dispute is on "crime," correct? See how you actually just agreed with me? You know, as do I, that Barbarian was talking about "crime," yet posting "homicide rates," two very different things. "Crime" is an umbrella term, whereas "homicide" is not.

So yes, Barbarian was discussing crime, but not being honest in the statistics provided. Furthermore, go back and pour through the sources for those statistics provided. I will touch on that in just a second.


The conversation was homicide rates. Why did you bring up "higher crime averages" in the first place? Also, what conclusions are you drawing from your F.B.I data?

What statistics that you referenced challenge which false implications?

Please be more precise.
The FBI statistics, if you review them, denote a higher rate of "violent crime" during various decades in which a Democrat was president (Clinton and Obama). Now, while "crime" itself has decreased, violent crimes, which include mass shootings, gang violence, etc. are more frequent than they were under Bush, Jr, under both Clinton and Obama. Thus, Barbarian's conclusion of "higher crime," thus, "more violence" under Republicans is false.

The FBI statistics include "mass shootings," perpetrated by terrorists (Muslims), whereas the sources provided by Barbarian, do not include Islamic mass murder, but do include Communist terrorist attacks, which conveniently occur under Republican presidencies (HW Bush, Reagan). Thus, the appropriate label of "skewed statistics."


No, that was a mistaken claim by you. You thought September 11th attacks were included. They were not. That is why there was no jump as would otherwise be expected.
Which depends on which source one utilizes. Liberal sources love to leave out Sept 11, because it is detrimental to the statistics of "Islam is a peaceful religion." I know this is veering off topic, but it is usually the cause of such faulty conclusions.



That's just the way these things are defined. I don't think there is a partisan angle to it. And, this just further proves TheBararian's point about the murder rate in 2001 being what it was with September 11th not included in the data. If September 11th was not included and the Pulse nightclub shooting was, it would make Republican numbers look better at a glance versus those of a Democrat presidency.
Exactly! It is all neatly picked through to give false impressions using "statistics."


What do "convenient classifications" have to do with anything? Please expound.
Such classifications, such as "assault," "crime," "violent crime," "murder rates," etc. all provide broad umbrella terms, allowing for biased researchers to conveniently leave out various incidents that are detrimental to their cause (spreading their ideas as "facts"). Which is why I specifically utilize sources such as Pew Poll and FBI materials. Such statistics are more straightforward, giving exact "classifications" for their used vocabulary. Most sources do are not as honest and transparent.

Granted, sometimes even these sources can be a little spotty, but generally, they are unbiased.


Sure, but you must admit that no one was discussing anything but homicide rates until you brought this up...which is fine but this is why I mentioned moving the goal posts.
No, as you said first thing in your post, quoted first in this response, Barbarian was making conclusion on "crime rates." Sure, Barbarian was using homicide rate statistics; but his statements were about "crime" (You said it, "when @TheBarbarian offered the statistics of lower crime during Democrat presidencies").


What statistics were false?
It isn't that they are transparently false; the provided statistics by Barbarian classify certain incidents as "homicide," leaving out various cases of violence resulting in death. Thus, a statistic that is not completely honest. If it isn't entirely true, it is false.
 

WizardofOz

New member
The dispute is on "crime," correct? See how you actually just agreed with me? You know, as do I, that Barbarian was talking about "crime," yet posting "homicide rates," two very different things. "Crime" is an umbrella term, whereas "homicide" is not.

I see where you're coming from now. :thumb: The conversation kept shifting.

So yes, Barbarian was discussing crime, but not being honest in the statistics provided.

What was dishonest about what he said? Who is attacking character now? You're being a bit hypocritical, are you not?

The FBI statistics, if you review them, denote a higher rate of "violent crime" during various decades in which a Democrat was president (Clinton and Obama). Now, while "crime" itself has decreased, violent crimes, which include mass shootings, gang violence, etc. are more frequent than they were under Bush, Jr, under both Clinton and Obama. Thus, Barbarian's conclusion of "higher crime," thus, "more violence" under Republicans is false.

Obviously it depends on the sample size. Violent crime was lower under Clinton that it was under Bush Sr. It was lower under Bush Jr. than it was under Clinton. It was lower under Obama than it was under Bush Jr.

Your claim that it was lower under Bush Jr. than Obama is inaccurate. You've made several inaccurate statements in this thread now.

See the trend?

Here are the numbers:

Clinton
Year 1 - 746.8
Year 2 - 713.6
Year 3 - 684.5
Year 4 - 363.6
Year 5 - 611
Year 6 - 566.4
Year 7 - 523
Year 8 - 506.5
Average = 589.43

Bush Jr.
Year 1 - 504.5
Year 2 - 494.4
Year 3 - 475.8
Year 4 - 463.2
Year 5 - 469
Year 6 - 473.6
Year 7 - 466.9
Year 8 - 457.5
Average = 475.61

Obama
Year 1 - 431.9
Year 2 - 404.5
Year 3 - 387.1
Year 4 - 387.8
Year 5 - 379.1
Year 6 - 372
Year 7 - 384.6
Year 8 - 397.1
Average = 393.01

Source


The FBI statistics include "mass shootings," perpetrated by terrorists (Muslims), whereas the sources provided by Barbarian, do not include Islamic mass murder, but do include Communist terrorist attacks, which conveniently occur under Republican presidencies (HW Bush, Reagan). Thus, the appropriate label of "skewed statistics."
If you're referring to the Pulse Nightclub shooting, that occurred during Obama's presidency and will only make his numbers look worse if included.

Which depends on which source one utilizes. Liberal sources love to leave out Sept 11, because it is detrimental to the statistics of "Islam is a peaceful religion." I know this is veering off topic, but it is usually the cause of such faulty conclusions.

If September 11th is not included that will make Bush Jr's numbers look better.

I think you've got the way including or not including these numbers will read, backward.

Exactly! It is all neatly picked through to give false impressions using "statistics."

But it would tell the exact opposite story that you seem to think it would.


It isn't that they are transparently false; the provided statistics by Barbarian classify certain incidents as "homicide," leaving out various cases of violence resulting in death. Thus, a statistic that is not completely honest. If it isn't entirely true, it is false.

You'd have to offer evidence showing it's false rather than rejecting his conclusion out of hand.
 
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jsanford108

New member
I see where you're coming from now. :thumb: The conversation kept shifting.
Thanks.


What was dishonest about what he said? Who is attacking character now? You're being a bit hypocritical, are you not?
I wasn't attacking his character, just highlighting the tactic. I am not debunking his argument based on his tactic, but the information presented not logically generating the conclusion that he says it does.


Your claim that it was lower under Bush Jr. than Obama is inaccurate. You've made several inaccurate statements in this thread now.
That is my fault. I was trying to recall the stats without actual reviewing the source a second time.
If you're referring to the Pulse Nightclub shooting, that occurred during Obama's presidency and will only make his numbers look worse if included.

If September 11th is not included that will make Bush Jr's numbers look better.

I think you've got the way including or not including these numbers will read, backward.
I don't think the debate is about these numbers being included, is it?

You'd have to offer evidence showing it's false rather than rejecting his conclusion out of hand.

Barbarian's statement is that more crime occurs during Republican presidency that Democrat. But, as we have seen with Bush Jr, that is not the case. An absolute, such as what Barb put forth, cannot have exceptions.

Honestly, this thread is not about any of the things we are discussing. We are kind of squabbling about the conclusions and statistics are, rather than the original discussion posed by Patrick Jane.


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Town Heretic

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Isn't that interesting? How the details keep changing....
No, not really. You should see what happens to accident reports as you have different witnesses and reports combined. Most people don't understand how people actually are and how memory and emotional events combine to distort. And because of that a lot of people think something is fishy, because we're a video and tv populace accustomed to neat, edited packages and direct witness recordings presented in a tight, chronological and controlled package.
 

Yorzhik

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LIFETIME MEMBER
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I've already presented some fairly concrete ideas. I'm open to intelligent discussion on what appears to work elsewhere.
No, you've presented arbitrary laws that would do nothing to stop a Paddock style attack. It's the kind of police state law that amounts to a law against hoarding eggs. You'll present more arbitrary laws after the next attack. And more after that. Until you suddenly find yourself supporting a police state.

Save yourself from the madness - don't go down this road to begin with.

P.S. I imagine that we'll have to define what a police state is now. I have the feeling you don't know what it is.
 

patrick jane

BANNED
Banned
No, you've presented arbitrary laws that would do nothing to stop a Paddock style attack. It's the kind of police state law that amounts to a law against hoarding eggs. You'll present more arbitrary laws after the next attack. And more after that. Until you suddenly find yourself supporting a police state.

Save yourself from the madness - don't go down this road to begin with.

P.S. I imagine that we'll have to define what a police state is now. I have the feeling you don't know what it is.
The liberal mindset is hard to reason with.
 

jsanford108

New member
No, not really. You should see what happens to accident reports as you have different witnesses and reports combined. Most people don't understand how people actually are and how memory and emotional events combine to distort. And because of that a lot of people think something is fishy, because we're a video and tv populace accustomed to neat, edited packages and direct witness recordings presented in a tight, chronological and controlled package.

So, what doesn't surprise you? Usually, the most reliable testimonies are those that occurred earliest as possible.

Add on to this, the details revealed in the investigation. How many guns were there? How many wounded? How many shots fired? These numbers seem to change with the wind. How is it that police and FBI can be so whimsical with numbers on "the largest massacre in U.S. History?"


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jsanford108

New member
Also, if I may point out this label of "largest massacre." What a lame attempt.

When the Pulse nightclub shooting occurred, Obama did all he could to make it seem like a "lone wolf" committing a hate crime, rather than a massacre perpetrated by a Muslim. That incident had close to 50 deaths, but was in no way labeled as "largest massacre" by any media outlet or politician. (Obama took the same approach anytime a Muslim was guilty of killing non-Muslims, such as San Bernardino)

And this label of "largest massacre" is also hugely false. Have we all forgotten the events of Wounded Knee? The government ordered that one, but that is a convenient thing to forget. So, "largest in U.S. History?" Not even close.


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Town Heretic

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So, what doesn't surprise you?
That as investigators continue to pull various reports and interviews together the picture changes a bit.

Usually, the most reliable testimonies are those that occurred earliest as possible.
It depends. How a forensic interview is conducted has a great deal to do with accuracy. So does exposure to and conversations with others, involved or not. I once worked for a woman who was in the fifth or a fifteen car pile up. The perspectives and evidence from initial interviews of all the parties, coupled with reports from onlookers had a remarkable variance.

Add on to this, the details revealed in the investigation. How many guns were there? How many wounded? How many shots fired? These numbers seem to change with the wind. How is it that police and FBI can be so whimsical with numbers on "the largest massacre in U.S. History?"
There's nothing whimsical going on. Forensic investigations are usually silent because of this tendency and the tendency of people to fall into silly conspiracy theories because they don't understand the process.

And witnesses are only one part of the problem. Evidence, as compiled, can shift narratives, but back to witnesses, here's something from Stanford Journal of Legal Studies on witness testimony. (link)

A little from it: "[FONT=&quot]Several studies have been conducted on human memory and on subjects’ propensity to remember erroneously events and details that did not occur. Elizabeth Loftus performed experiments in the mid-seventies demonstrating the effect of a third party’s introducing false facts into memory.[/FONT]4[FONT=&quot] Subjects were shown a slide of a car at an intersection with either a yield sign or a stop sign. Experimenters asked participants questions, falsely introducing the term "stop sign" into the question instead of referring to the yield sign participants had actually seen. Similarly, experimenters falsely substituted the term "yield sign" in questions directed to participants who had actually seen the stop sign slide. The results indicated that subjects remembered seeing the false image. In the initial part of the experiment, subjects also viewed a slide showing a car accident. Some subjects were later asked how fast the cars were traveling when they "hit" each other, others were asked how fast the cars were traveling when they "smashed" into each other. Those subjects questioned using the word "smashed" were more likely to report having seen broken glass in the original slide. The introduction of false cues altered participants’ memories."[/FONT]
 

Town Heretic

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No,you've presented arbitrary laws that would do nothing to stop a Paddock styleattack.

No, I've presented notions, not laws. And the countries that use them don't have our problems. Why you'retrying to "no" me on that goofy a point is anyone's guess. Feels likean attempt to sidebar and distract. Anyway, I've presented a few ideas thathave been adopted by some to real effect and opened the floor for any suggestions.

Meanwhile, you still haven't addressed the problem your own position creates for you. Here it is again, more succinctly.

On the right to bear arms.
It's either unfettered or it doesn'texist.

Re: carrying RPGs or Bazookas
...you created a straw man to make thisclaim. Will you realize you created a straw man and apologize or confess youdidn't realize you created a straw man?
I did no such thing. You said the right must beunfettered (see: bold above) or it isn't a right at all. I unfetteredit. And the moment I do your position becomes as obviously absurd as itactually is. That's the problem and it's yours, not mine.

Individuals can defend themselvesreliably with a weapon that can be brought to bear against a single otherhuman. If it can do such, it should be freely allowed.
See, you created an arbitrary distinction orfetter yourself, that the weapon must be capable of a more surgical use (by theway, that's not how automatic works and you've already acknowledged it) that isan acknowledgement both of us understand the right cannot be without reasonedlimits.

So pick a side. If we can restrict the right inany sense then we're just arguing about what's reasonable. If you hold we can'tdo that, then you have to abandon your own limitation of a weapon brought tobear against a single human being and we're back to the unreasonable possessionof bazookas and RPGs.



The liberal mindsetis hard to reason with.
But mine isn't (either). You just have to know how to actually reason and get to it.
 

jsanford108

New member
It depends. How a forensic interview is conducted has a great deal to do with accuracy. So does exposure to and conversations with others, involved or not. I once worked for a woman who was in the fifth or a fifteen car pile up. The perspectives and evidence from initial interviews of all the parties, coupled with reports from onlookers had a remarkable variance.
I am not talking about various eye witness testimonies of the event. I am specifically talking about the reports of various "facts."


There's nothing whimsical going on. Forensic investigations are usually silent because of this tendency and the tendency of people to fall into silly conspiracy theories because they don't understand the process.
Is it conspiracy to see that some things just don't add up?

And witnesses are only one part of the problem. Evidence, as compiled, can shift narratives, but back to witnesses, here's something from Stanford Journal of Legal Studies on witness testimony. (link)

A little from it: "[FONT="]Several studies have been conducted on human memory and on subjects’ propensity to remember erroneously events and details that did not occur. Elizabeth Loftus performed experiments in the mid-seventies demonstrating the effect of a third party’s introducing false facts into memory.[/FONT][/COLOR][URL="https://agora.stanford.edu/sjls/Issue%20One/f&tfootnotes.htm#4"]4[/URL][FONT="] Subjects were shown a slide of a car at an intersection with either a yield sign or a stop sign. Experimenters asked participants questions, falsely introducing the term "stop sign" into the question instead of referring to the yield sign participants had actually seen. Similarly, experimenters falsely substituted the term "yield sign" in questions directed to participants who had actually seen the stop sign slide. The results indicated that subjects remembered seeing the false image. In the initial part of the experiment, subjects also viewed a slide showing a car accident. Some subjects were later asked how fast the cars were traveling when they "hit" each other, others were asked how fast the cars were traveling when they "smashed" into each other. Those subjects questioned using the word "smashed" were more likely to report having seen broken glass in the original slide. The introduction of false cues altered participants’ memories."[/FONT]

I am not talking about the timeline or eye witness accounts. You seem to want to zero in on that. Let me steer you more toward what is my issue with the details. Let us review, my former comment (underlined quotes), which you catapulted from into talks of eye witness accounts/timelines, etc.:
"How many guns were there?" Reports started off with 10, then said 23, and now say 45. How hard is it to simply count?
"How many shots fired?" Reports say several thousand. Let us consider this for a moment. Thousands of rounds, fired from an elevated position. Yet only hundreds injured? That makes no sense if "thousands" of rounds were fired. Should not at least most of those rounds hit a target? Further more, let us look at the numbers of wounded. The first initial reports were over 500. Sure, the hospitals claimed that they were double counting, but is there not a visible difference between 250 and 500? Also, remember, "thousands of rounds." But only, approximate 300 total casualties, including deaths? That doesn't add up.

Also, the pictures do not add up with the statistics being given to us. Here is an article, relevant to the discussion: https://www.naturalnews.com/2017-10...add-up-las-vegas-massacre-expended-brass.html

It is hard to argue that something is not quite right about this whole "massacre." I am not questioning the eye witness accounts. I am questioning the reports being generated by the government/media. So yes, "whimsical" is a fitting adjective.
 
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Town Heretic

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I am not talking about various eye witness testimonies of the event. I am specifically talking about the reports of various "facts."
Arrived at by what means? It's not unusual for testimony and even technology to alter an accounting as a lot of information continues to be processed.

Is it conspiracy to see that some things just don't add up?
It's a conspiracy theory to see an attempt to obfuscate, misdirect, or alter a thing known to be true without sufficient reason as to the why.

I am not talking about the timeline or eye witness accounts. You seem to want to zero in on that.
Just noting how not unusual it is for additional facts and evidence to alter initial beliefs and reports without anyone trying to hoodwink anyone else.


"How many guns were there?" Reports started off with 10, then said 23, and now say 45.
Which reports offered by whom at what point?

How hard is it to simply count?
Same thing happened in one of the school shootings, where additional weapons were found in other locations and added to the total. So I'd say, which reports (links) to which authority and at what time in relation to the incident and investigation? All of those answers could alter the total.

How? First report counts guns in the room with the body. A later report takes into account other guns in other locations cataloged and included at a greater interval.

"How many shots fired?" Reports say several thousand.
Which reports cited where by whom?

Let us consider this for a moment. Thousands of rounds, fired from an elevated position. Yet only hundreds injured? That makes no sense if "thousands" of rounds were fired.
Based on what? He was shooting in automatic. How many rounds did he fire at the tanks he mistakenly thought he could cause to explode? How many rounds was he firing per minute? How many minutes did he fire? That sort of thing.

Should not at least most of those rounds hit a target?
Not necessarily. He may have done most of his damage early on, before people started hiding. It's much easier to hit stationary targets. You open an area up and he's shooting from some distance, at night. No, he might have wasted a lot of rounds even before we get to his attempt to shoot those fuel storage containers.

He fired more than 200 rounds at the security guard who discovered him. The guy lived.

Further more, let us look at the numbers of wounded. The first initial reports were over 500. Sure, the hospitals claimed that they were double counting, but is there not a visible difference between 250 and 500?
Sure. And there's a difference between initial estimations and an eventual hard count. I read an accounting from a day ago that had it 58 dead and 489 injured. That includes a lot of related injuries that weren't gunshots.

Also, remember, "thousands of rounds." But only, approximate 300 total casualties, including deaths? That doesn't add up.
Sure it does. You just seem invested in it not adding up or you're thinking of it like you would a man with a regular rifle.

And what would the alternative be?

It is hard to argue that something is not quite right about this whole "massacre."
How many like this have you compared to it? What's your level of experience with the weapon used at distance and at night? On what real, empirical claims do you rest the idea of the body count being unlikely, etc.? So far it seems like you're reading a lot into the natural confusion of an event.
 

jsanford108

New member
Arrived at by what means? It's not unusual for testimony and even technology to alter an accounting as a lot of information continues to be processed.
So we are relying on witnesses to let us know what the police found?


It's a conspiracy theory to see an attempt to obfuscate, misdirect, or alter a thing known to be true without sufficient reason as to the why.
Still not what I am doing. I am not even saying it is a conspiracy, yet.


Which reports offered by whom at what point?
Reports throughout have changed constantly. Just review the reports from AP and CNN since the first week of the occurrence.

Which reports cited where by whom?
Why is it, when confronted with logic and statistics, do people instantly cry for sources, yet have provided none themselves?

For the record, all my "reports" are from CNN and AP (Associated Press).

Based on what? He was shooting in automatic. How many rounds did he fire at the tanks he mistakenly thought he could cause to explode? How many rounds was he firing per minute? How many minutes did he fire? That sort of thing.
Based on gun mechanics. For example, the particular rifles that the crazy was using were "various AR-15's." AR, or Armalite Rifles, fire a .223 round, usually of about 55 grain. An AR-15, illegally modified to automatic capabilities, can fire approximately six rounds per second. Paddock fired at the crowd for ten solid minutes, according to police reports. 6 rounds per second, over 10 minutes is around 3600 rounds. Accounting for spread, exchanging magazines, etc., that is about 3000+ rounds fired at a congested group of people. How is the best way to shoot fish? In a barrel, right? Why? Because it maximizes kill count.

Thus, the mathematics of gun mechanics do not add up to the given numbers reported by hospitals and police of those who suffered casualties.


Not necessarily. He may have done most of his damage early on, before people started hiding. It's much easier to hit stationary targets. You open an area up and he's shooting from some distance, at night. No, he might have wasted a lot of rounds even before we get to his attempt to shoot those fuel storage containers.
Have you ever seen an outdoor concert? People are not just spread out in tiny little pockets with plenty of cover; they are compacted in a rather large group.

Also, how do you know that he fired at fuel containers? That is just speculation by police sources, is it not? There has not been any actual evidence of that, that I am aware of.

He fired more than 200 rounds at the security guard who discovered him. The guy lived.
Is this eye-witness testimony? If so, by your logic, that isn't really reliable.


Sure. And there's a difference between initial estimations and an eventual hard count. I read an accounting from a day ago that had it 58 dead and 489 injured. That includes a lot of related injuries that weren't gunshots.
Yes, these reports are out now. But they began with 500 wounded (ABC, CNN, etc.), dropped to around 250 (CNN), and are now jumping back up (ABC), coincidentally after several have pointed out the obvious issue with such radical number differences.

And what would the alternative be?
What do you mean with this question?


Sure it does. You just seem invested in it not adding up or you're thinking of it like you would a man with a regular rifle.

How many like this have you compared to it? What's your level of experience with the weapon used at distance and at night? On what real, empirical claims do you rest the idea of the body count being unlikely, etc.? So far it seems like you're reading a lot into the natural confusion of an event.
Interesting theory. Except that it is completely wrong. I am thinking of it, using the functioning mechanics of an AR rifle, taking into account, the capabilities that an illegal automatic conversion would allow, in combination with personal experience with semi-auto tactical rifle shooting.

(Yes, it makes sense that I would simply mistake the false application by media reports of "sniper" with a bolt-action rifle, akin to a hunting rifle, with an AR. Except that I know more about guns than CNN apparently. An automatic rifle is not a sniper. )
 

Town Heretic

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The media enjoys mocking those that believe in conspiracies
The only people who don't enjoy mocking conspiracy theorists are conspiracy theorists.

have they forgotten that one of our greatest presidents knew all too well the seriousness of the matter.
Without getting into the assertion of Kennedy's greatness (based in what particular accomplishment?) communist efforts to undermine democracy would qualify as the worst kept secret in the world. It wasn't a thing advanced by conspiracy theorists, but a recognition advanced by empirical data without the need to wonder at the root of it.
 

Town Heretic

Out of Order
Hall of Fame
So we are relying on witnesses to let us know what the police found?
We're relying on all sorts of forensic evidence as well. Reports, and summaries, investigations, the usual methodology of release.

Still not what I am doing. I am not even saying it is a conspiracy, yet.
When you repeatedly question how a thing could be you infer that it couldn't reasonably be as it appears. I've given you a reasonable account of how evidence and accountings can become altered over the course of a normal investigative process. You appear to resist that. There's no other route left to follow by implication, however shy you are with the application.

Reports throughout have changed constantly.
So you've said. I've asked which reports and to what extent over what time period. Or are you just repeating a thing without an empirical foundation, your impression of events over that time, your memory?

Just review the reports from AP and CNN since the first week of the occurrence.
I haven't seen the accounts you find convincing. A quick Google didn't provide them. So show us the reports in their difference. Post links and give us the contradictory facts that lept from them and cause you to wonder, that seemed out of step with my note on the natural evolution of process. If it's actual I'd be interested.

Why is it, when confronted with logic and statistics
What logic are you referring to, particularly? I've answered your assertions on facts on hand, answered some of the questions. I don't recall an argument of parts.Claims of statistics unsupported by links to authority. What statistics, cited where, particularly?

do people instantly cry for sources, yet have provided none themselves?
I'm not the one making claims that observed facts are problematic. What's to link to? I'm rebutting the tenuously assumptive with reason and experience. I did note the tank being shot at. Here's a CNN report link to them noting one was struck by the fire, etc.

For the record, all my "reports" are from CNN and AP (Associated Press).
No, you've offered impressions of reports. For all I know you're just remembering a cross section of immediate media reportings of things that hadn't been properly sorted, in the midst of an emotionally charged situation, etc.

Based on gun mechanics. For example, the particular rifles that the crazy was using were "various AR-15's." AR, or Armalite Rifles, fire a .223 round, usually of about 55 grain. An AR-15, illegally modified to automatic capabilities, can fire approximately six rounds per second. Paddock fired at the crowd for ten solid minutes, according to police reports. 6 rounds per second, over 10 minutes is around 3600 rounds. Accounting for spread, exchanging magazines, etc., that is about 3000+ rounds fired at a congested group of people. How is the best way to shoot fish? In a barrel, right? Why? Because it maximizes kill count.
We know he used two different windows, which means leaving one location and setting up in the other. And some of that firing was aimed at igniting the fuel tank he struck but failed to set afire. And there's the changing of magazines or weapons, as you've noted in part.

Thus, the mathematics of gun mechanics do not add up to the given numbers reported by hospitals and police of those who suffered casualties.
You keep saying that, but I don't know why you keep saying that. You haven't stopped to consider any number of points I've raised that answer the rounds relative to injuries. Night, distance, hidden targets, rounds wasted on the tank, time wasted on repositioning, 200 or better rounds in the wall and corridor outside his room, sprayed at a security guard. That sort of thing.

He may have had money, weapons, and some range time, but he was also a nut with no field fire experience, who'd panicked enough to pepper a hall with bullets, who thought he could blow up a distant fuel tank with incendiary rounds fired from his rifle. This isn't an ex Marine plotting a massacre. This isn't a sniper with the right weapon, a flash suppressor and steely nerves. This is a nut who thought he might get away and do even more damage. He was prepared for that. It was part of that fantasy life that didn't work out.

Have you ever seen an outdoor concert? People are not just spread out in tiny little pockets with plenty of cover; they are compacted in a rather large group.
I've seen a number of seasoned hunters trying to hit one deer with most missing. They weren't stories up firing in the dark.I've been under fire and seen what it does to people with hard reflex but no real experience. This guy? He wasn't ready. Only the volume of his fire accounted for the damage he did. And that's before most of the targets are running and hiding. And that's before we figure out how many bullets and how much time he might have wasted on other targets, like the tank.

Also, how do you know that he fired at fuel containers?
It's in the reports and he managed to hit one, but he miscalculated on his ability to ignite it. They looked to the tank when after they found incendiary rounds among those left in his room.

That is just speculation by police sources, is it not?
No, it's reports from what they've gathered as evidence. Most of what we know in sum is coming from those sources. That's their job. And there's no reason for them to attempt to do it badly.

And again, what's the alternative? What's the reason for anyone getting it intentionally wrong? And if there was a conspiracy, why wouldn't that message be canned and ready?

Yes, these reports are out now. But they began with 500 wounded (ABC, CNN, etc.), dropped to around 250 (CNN), and are now jumping back up (ABC), coincidentally after several have pointed out the obvious issue with such radical number differences.
You should link and cite. What report began at 500 and dropped to 250? Link to those disparities. I can judge your reason but I need to verify your facts. Especially true since you give every indication of someone invested in seeing a conspiracy of some sort afoot, though what sort and why haven't emerged as yet.

What do you mean with this question?
What's the reasonable alternative to the seeming truth here, one that follows the course of a tragic, violent situation. There were varying reports on details in the Newton shooting of 2012. It was a hot topic here and a few people were heavy on the number of guns changing (that's the shooting I was referring to earlier).

I am thinking of it, using the functioning mechanics of an AR rifle, taking into account, the capabilities that an illegal automatic conversion would allow, in combination with personal experience with semi-auto tactical rifle shooting.
In the hands of a nut, moving about between two positions, who had never shot anyone before. Who had been challenged and expended a few hundred rounds not killing a security guard. Whose hands were likely shaking with adrenaline. Who was firing in the dark at people fleeing and finding cover. Who wasted some of that time firing at a fuel tank. And so on.

Yes, it makes sense that I would simply mistake the false application by media reports of "sniper" with a bolt-action rifle, akin to a hunting rifle, with an AR.
I said you're thinking of his efficacy in shooting that way. You're not really demonstrating an understanding of the logistics, the reality of live fire in the hands of a novice of what proficiency in a bad shooting situation if you're going for accuracy. There's nothing in what happened that doesn't line up.

Except that I know more about guns than CNN apparently. An automatic rifle is not a sniper.
A sniper, with any real experience and the right equipment would have killed a lot more people.
 
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everready

New member
The only people who don't enjoy mocking conspiracy theorists are conspiracy theorists.


Without getting into the assertion of Kennedy's greatness (based in what particular accomplishment?) communist efforts to undermine democracy would qualify as the worst kept secret in the world. It wasn't a thing advanced by conspiracy theorists, but a recognition advanced by empirical data without the need to wonder at the root of it.

We'll never know will we he was assassinated before he could expose the conspirators..

everready
 
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