Soon after it became clear that Republican Glenn Youngkin would become the next governor of Virginia, the GOP saw a spike in their chances of retaking both the House and Senate.
fortune.com
According to PredictIt, Youngkin's win quickly translated into a bump in the GOP's odds to retake the House—which they lost in 2018. Back in early August, Republicans led Democrats by a 69 cent to 33 cent margin (or how much you'd need to wager on them to win $1) in the betting market. Following the Virginia win, that gap widened in Republicans’ favor (82 cents to 18 cents).
There is, of course, a big wild card that prevents bettors from fully understanding House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's odds of retaining the chamber: redistricting. We're currently amid the once-in-a-decade period where statehouses across the nation can redraw their congressional districts. It remains to be seen which party will benefit the most from redistricting this go-around (although, through the first 14 state redraws, FiveThirtyEight says Democrats have netted the most seats) or how far the parties will go down the gerrymandering rabbit hole.
The more challenging takeover will be flipping the Senate.
The good news for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who would like to regain his old jobs as Senate majority leader, is that trajectory is also on the side of Republicans in the Senate. Indeed, back in early August, PredictIt had Democrats and Republicans tied in the Senate race. But that has gradually moved in Republicans’ favor as Biden's approval rating has slipped.
